NFL

NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model backing Browns, Bengals in Week 3, 2024

by
SaC Bot
September 18, 2024

usatsi

A popular NFL betting strategy is to make predictions on divisional games since there are often NFL betting trends you can analyze. On Sunday, there is only one divisional contest, 49ers vs. Rams. They have played 150 times previously, and San Francisco has owned the recent history, winning nine of the last 10 regular-season matchups. The 49ers are favored by 7.5 points, per the Week 3 NFL odds, making them the biggest road favorite of the 2024 NFL season. The Niners have won five straight regular-season road games versus the Rams, covering four times. However, L.A. covered in both matchups last season, so which side should you target with your NFL best bets?

Since the start of 2023, both teams are under .500 against the spread coming off straight-up defeats, which is the case with this matchup, so who can you confidently back in the Week 3 NFL spreads? All of the Week 3 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 3 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 3 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 3 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 3 NFL picks is that the Browns (-6.5, 38.5) cover the spread versus the Giants. Cleveland had a dominant defensive effort in its Sunday win over Jacksonville, holding Trevor Lawrence (46.67 CMP%) under a 50% completion percentage for just the fourth time in his pro career. That defense should have even more fun facing Daniel Jones, whose 54.3% CMP% ranks 28th out of 31 qualified QBs this season.

This game will take place in front of the Dawg Pound, and the Browns are unparalleled when it comes to recent spread success at home. They are 8-2 at home against the spread since the start of last season, which is the best record in the league, and their 6-1 ATS record as a home favorite over that span is also the best mark in the NFL. Jones has lost four straight road starts, failing to throw a TD pass in three of those, and the Giants are 1-8 overall over their last nine away games. With that, the Browns (-6.5) are forecasted to cover in nearly 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 3 NFL predictions: the Bengals (-7.5, 48.5) cover versus the Commanders. Last season, Washington allowed the most points in the NFL (518) which led to the worst point differential (-189) in the league. It doesn’t appear those defensive woes have been corrected as Washington ranks dead-last in both passing TDs allowed and third-down defense, in addition to bottom-five rankings in redzone defense and points allowed. Now it has to face a Bengals offense which found its way last week by scoring 25 points at Kansas City, which had the league’s No. 2 scoring defense a year ago.

The model projects Joe Burrow to have as many passing yards as Jayden Daniels has passing and rushing yards combined. RBs Chase Brown and Zack Moss are forecasted to average nearly 5.0 ypc against a Commanders defense that allowed over 100 rushing yards to both the Bucs and Giants — two teams not known for their rushing offenses. With Washington yet to throw a passing TD all season, it simply won’t be able to keep up with the Bengals. Cincy is projected to cover in well over 50% of simulations, and the model also has the Over (48) hitting well over 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 3 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 3 NFL schedule and just revealed three must-see underdogs who win outright, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see underdogs should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.