Even though they haven’t finished below .500 since going 6-10 in 2003, not much was expected from the Pittsburgh Steelers this season. But history has proven that you never can count out a team coached by Mike Tomlin, and thus far in 2024, that again holds true.
The Steelers have posted a winning record 14 times and went 8-8 on three occasions since Tomlin took the reins from Hall-of-Famer Bill Cowher in the Steel City in 2007. After two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback Ben Roethlisberger retired in 2021, Pittsburgh won its final four regular-season games the following year to finish at 9-8 and ended 2023 with three straight victories to go 10-7 and earn a wild-card berth, although it lost to the Buffalo Bills on the road.
Kenny Pickett, who was selected with the 20th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, started the majority of games under center in those two seasons (24), with Mitchell Trubisky (seven) and Mason Rudolph (four) also receiving opportunities – mostly due to injuries. All three are elsewhere this year as the Steelers brought in nine-time Pro Bowler and Super Bowl champ Russell Wilson as a free agent and traded for Justin Fields, who was drafted 11th overall in 2021 by the Chicago Bears.
Even with the upgrade at arguably the most important position in team sports, Pittsburgh was not expected to be a factor in the playoff picture this year. In fact, the SportsLine Projection Model gave the Steelers 12% chance to win the AFC North title for the first time since 2020 and a 32% chance to grab a wild-card spot in its preseason forecast.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, had even less confidence in the team going far in the postseason. It gave Pittsburgh a 2.2% chance to reach the Super Bowl and a 1% chance to win it for a record seventh time.
However, the Steelers have made everyone look bad after two games this year, even though their offense has been less than impressive. The club has produced a total of 31 points, recording just one touchdown and eight field goals, but has allowed 16 in posting road wins against the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos.
The 35-year-old Wilson, who led the Seattle Seahawks to victory in Super Bowl XLVIII, has yet to make his debut with Pittsburgh due to a calf injury. That left the offense in the hands of Fields, who has thrown for only 273 yards and the one TD. But more importantly, the 25-year-old has not been intercepted after getting picked off 30 times in 40 games over his three seasons in Chicago.
Dating to last year, Fields has gone four consecutive starts without committing a turnover, the longest such streak of his NFL career. Since 1950, he is the fifth quarterback to win his first two starts with the Steelers and first to accomplish the feat since Devlin Hodges was victorious in his first three before losing his final three in 2019 — his first and only season in the NFL.
Pittsburgh also hasn’t lost a fumble, making it one of three teams without a giveaway over the first two weeks of the campaign. It is tied for second in the NFL with four interceptions and ranks first with a plus-5 turnover differential.
And even though the Steelers are 30th in both total offense (260.5 yards) and passing offense (121.5), they became the third team in the Super Bowl era that got off to a 2-0 start while scoring fewer than two touchdowns, joining the 1988 Bills and 2000 Detroit Lions.
A strong unit for the franchise for decades, the defense has played a large role in Pittsburgh’s early success in 2024. The Steelers are fifth in both total defense (260.5 yards allowed) and against the run (76.5) while ranking second in points allowed (8.0).
As a result, the team is the surprise leader in the AFC North, with the Cleveland Browns sitting in second place after splitting their first two contests. Meanwhile, the two clubs that won the division title five of the last six years — the reigning champion Baltimore Ravens (three) and Cincinnati Bengals (two) — have gotten off to disappointing 0-2 starts.
Taking all of that into consideration, the SportsLine Projection Model has a new perception of the Steelers. Entering Week 3, it gives the Steelers a 41% chance of winning the division and puts its chances of reaching the postseason at 68.7%. The team now represents the AFC in the Super Bowl 7.2% of the time and captures the Vince Lombardi Trophy in 3.5% of the simulations.
In Week 3, Pittsburgh faces a stiff test in its home opener as it takes on the Los Angeles Chargers, who also are undefeated under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. Fields again will make the start for the Steelers, as Wilson continues to recover from his injury, and is likely to have a difficult time getting the offense on track against a Los Angeles team that is second in the NFL in total defense (260.5 yards allowed) and first in points allowed (6.5).
If Fields is able to lead Pittsburgh to victory, the model says the team’s chances to make the playoffs increases to 79%. It also projects that the Steelers would reach the Super Bowl 9% of the time and win it 4% of the time in simulations.
The model is calling for a tight game between the Steelers and Chargers. However, the contest isn’t one of the three with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the third week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 3 NFL picks at SportsLine.
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Author: Scott Erskine
September 18, 2024 | 12:26 pm
