Tua Tagovailoa’s contract: How could retirement affect QB’s deal? Salary cap expert forecasts what’s next

In the case of Tua Tagovailoa, most fans and analysts seem to agree: The chief priority for the Miami Dolphins after Thursday night is doing right by the quarterback’s health, considering the 26-year-old is fresh off his third documented concussion in the last two years. Medical experts believe retirement should be in the cards, as do several NFL greats who’ve wasted no time urging Tagovailoa to call it a career.

We know Tagovailoa has contemplated retirement before; he admitted as much following the 2022 season, in which he suffered at least two head injuries. We also know he opted against retiring, parlaying his competitive spirit and subsequent comeback into a lucrative contract extension this summer.

So what happens to that deal if Tagovailoa actually decides to walk away this time? It may be a trivial concern in the grand scheme of things, but it’s also very relevant to both player and team considering the sheer volume of the deal — a four-year, $212.4 million whopper that was just finalized in July.

On paper, Tagovailoa’s deal ties him to Miami through 2028, but it’s structured in a way that he’s only practically married to the Dolphins through 2025. Consider that the team can release the quarterback without absorbing a negative impact to the salary cap in 2026; a post-June 1 cut designation in that offseason would result in a dead cap charge of $47.4 million, per Over the Cap, but an instant savings of $9 million in 2026 cap space. The Dolphins can also trade Tagovailoa at any point following the 2024 season and gain cap space, which is to say, while lucrative, the quarterback’s deal is actually relatively team-friendly in terms of potential “escape routes” for Miami.

The contract does include $167.2 million guaranteed, but the “guarantees” are mostly conditional. For example, if Tagovailoa is never medically cleared to return to football, he can walk away with that entire package, according to CBS Sports contributor and salary cap expert Joel Corry. So the Dolphins would be on the hook for $167.2 million, or nearly 80% of the entire four-year extension. Corry suspects that Tagovailoa will eventually be cleared from the NFL’s concussion protocol, however, which means the only way the quarterback could retire is by voluntarily walking away, a la former Indianapolis Colts star Andrew Luck. 

“Financially, that’s gonna be tough,” Corry says. “He got $93.17 million guaranteed at signing. If he’s gonna walk away voluntarily, then the 2025 guarantees will void. He’s got $50 million guaranteed in 2025. Do you wanna walk away from that? Retirement voids guarantees. Now, the Dolphins could honor the guarantee if they chose to. Most teams don’t do that. … It gets worse: His $42 million signing bonus is at risk. When you retire, the remaining proration of the bonus, or about $33.6 million, can be recouped.”

In the end, were Tagovailoa to voluntarily retire, Corry believes the Dolphins would be unlikely to pursue a full return on the remainder of the quarterback’s signing bonus. Still, given the anticipated void in guarantees, he estimates Tagovailoa would be walking away from a total of $124 million, barring some kind of drastic settlement negotiated with the team.

“If I’m him, I don’t voluntarily retire immediately,” Corry says. “I’m gonna buy myself more time. Typically, when it comes to being cleared to return, it’s at the discretion of the team doctor. But you could be looking at a grievance situation if there’s another opinion. This thing can potentially get messy.”