We are on the doorstep of yet another season in the NFL and it’s expected to be a doozy. Right out of the shoot, we have four days of action on deck with games being played on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday across the league. Those games feature some must-see matchups between Super Bowl contenders, including Ravens-Chiefs on Thursday night.
While those contests are intriguing simply because of how they may impact the overall season, we will peel back the onion a bit here in this space. Below, we’re going to highlight specific in-game matchups that are worth your time to seek out as you sit back and watch the 2024 season take its first steps. Some will be actual in-game duels between particular players and/or position groups (Ex. WR vs. CB) while others will be more of overarching matchups (Ex. QB vs. QB). So, get your pencil ready to circle these marquee matchups that are set to pop off in Week 1.
Lamar Jackson vs. Steve Spagnuolo’s blitzes
The main storyline surrounding this game is the sheer fact that the Ravens and Chiefs will be duking it out for the first time since K.C. knocked Baltimore out of the playoffs in the AFC Championship last season. If both franchises live up to their potential this season, this could prove to be a game that determines key seeding in the conference. That said, we’re specifically looking at something from that playoff showdown last winter that could rear its head in this matchup.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo deployed 20 different blitzes at Jackson in the AFC Championship and knocked the league MVP off-kilter. In those dropbacks, Jackson completed just eight of his 18 pass attempts (44%) and averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt. When facing no blitz, he was 12 of 19 (63%) and had a 7.7 yards-per-pass-attempt average. When the Chiefs sent six rushers, Jackson was 1 of 6 for 5 yards passing.
Specifically, we’ll be looking to see how often Kansas City elects to send a defensive back in after Jackson. In the AFC Championship, they recorded a season-high 12 defensive back blitzes and Jackson completed just three of his 10 throws for 21 yards under those conditions.
If the Chiefs can find similar success in Week 1, it could dilute what is projected to be a lethal Baltimore offense.
When it comes to a defense vs. offense matchup in this “Monday Night Football” showdown between the 49ers and Jets, I think most would say they are especially intrigued by how San Francisco’s offense fares against New York’s defense. I wouldn’t even fault you for it. After all, the Jets defense was No. 1 in the NFL in fewest yards allowed per play (4.6), while the Niners offense had the highest yards-per-play average (6.6) in the league.
However, I’m looking at the opposite sides of this matchup. While San Francisco is largely lauded as a top-flight defense, they were sneaky bad on third down in 2023. They allowed the sixth-most third-down conversions (5.5) per game in the league and ranked 27th in the NFL in opponent third-down conversion rate, allowing opposing offenses to move the chains 42.5% of the time. That reared its head in the Super Bowl when the defense allowed Kansas City to convert on nine of their 19 third-down situations (47.3%) and their lone fourth-down attempt.
Last season, the Jets were the worst third-down offense in the league, posting a conversion rate of 25.96%. Of course, we can throw that out thanks to a revamped offensive line and the return of Aaron Rodgers, who missed all of last season due to a torn Achilles just four snaps into the 2023 opener. For what it’s worth, Rodgers has a 104.1 passer rating on third down in his career.
A lot of talk has been made regarding the arrival of Stefon Diggs into Houston’s offense, but Nico Collins should still be looked at as the No. 1 option in this receiver room, specifically as it relates to the opener against Indy. In 2023, Collins torched his AFC South rival, topping 100 yards receiving in each matchup.
In Week 2, Collins exploded for seven catches, 146 yards and a touchdown. He followed that up during a pivotal Week 18 matchup where the third-year receiver caught nine balls for 195 yards and a touchdown. Those 341 total yards receiving at the most by any one pass catcher against the Colts in a season all time.
So, what does he have in store for an encore?
This is one of those matchups that isn’t exactly a head-to-head on the field, but more of how two of the top players on one side of the ball perform in a single game. On Sunday afternoon, we get two of the best pass rushers in the game wreaking havoc for their respective teams as Micah Parsons’ Cowboys roll into Cleveland to face Myles Garrett and the Browns.
Garrett is coming off a Defensive Player of the Year-winning season and is currently looked at as the best defensive player in the league, particularly following the retirement of Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald this offseason. However, Parsons is among those nipping at Garrett’s heels for that title and this Week 1 matchup should put that debate into further view.
Parsons and Garrett were top two in the NFL in pressure percentage last season with the Cowboys star coming in at a league-best 21.8% while Garrett was right behind him with 18.3% (tied with Josh Hines-Allen). Parsons wrapped up his third season in the NFL in 2023 and has already compiled 40.5 sacks. Only Reggie White, Derrick Thomas and Aldon Smith have had more over that same stretch to begin a career. As for Garrett, his 88.5 sacks within his first 100 career games are the third-most since 1982 behind only Reggie White and T.J. Watt.
If you want to see premier pass rushing, this is the game to watch.
We have a ton of great quarterback matchups in Week 1, including Lamar Jackson vs. Patrick Mahomes on Thursday and even Matthew Stafford vs. Jared Goff on Sunday. However, I’m curious to see how this quarterback duel between Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa down in Miami.
These two signal-callers have history dating to their college days when Lawrence was at Clemson and Tagovailoa was at Alabama. At the collegiate level, they squared off in the College Football Playoff National Championship to cap off the 2018 season. There, Lawrence bested Tagovailoa to lead the Tigers to a title. Lawrence also has the win in the lone matchup they’ve had in the NFL.
In those two games combined, Lawrence has averaged 333 yards passing to go along with four passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. As for Tagovailoa, he’s averaged 312 yards passing in these head-to-heads while totaling four touchdowns and three interceptions.
Both of these quarterbacks inked massive $50-plus million-per-season extensions this offseason and have yet to truly prove themselves on the playoff stage. A win for either of them to begin the 2024 season could go a long way in building toward that elusive deep playoff run.
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Author: Tyler Sullivan
September 5, 2024 | 5:45 am
