NFL

NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model targets Bills, Chargers in Week 1, 2024

by
SaC Bot
September 5, 2024

USATSI

Since being traded for each other in March 2021, Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff both have 24 regular season wins. Only one can reach 25 during the Week 1 NFL schedule since their teams will meet on Sunday Night Football. It’s a rematch of last year’s Wild Card Round, which Detroit won, but these teams have split their last 12 meetings. While the Lions won that postseason game, the Rams covered, so which route you should take with your Week 1 NFL picks and Week 1 NFL predictions?

The Lions are favored by 3.5 points in the Week 1 NFL odds, just as they were in the playoff victory. At just over a field goal, it’s one of the smaller NFL spreads of the week. All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. QB Gardner Minshew is the definition of a journeyman as Las Vegas is his seventh stop in 10 years of college and pro ball. He’s just 15-22 as a starting QB in the NFL and lost his last three starts against the spread with the Colts in 2023. He’s also 0-2 in his career versus the Chargers, with both losses coming by double-digits.

He contrasts with Chargers QB Justin Herbert, who has the most passing yards and second-most passing TDs through a player’s first four seasons in NFL history. Lots of those yards and touchdowns came against the Raiders, who Herbert has a sterling 15:2 career TD:INT against. Plus, the stats involving season openers favor the Chargers as the team is 4-1 over its last five Week 1 games, while Jim Harbaugh is 4-0 all-time in NFL season openers. With those factors, the model has Los Angeles (-3) covering over 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6.5) cover at home versus the Cardinals. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Cardinals own the worst record in the NFL (8-26), while the Bills’ 24 victories over that span are one shy of the most wins. Josh Allen has a 39-9 record since 2020 when he has one or fewer turnovers, and taking the ball away isn’t something Arizona specializes in. Just four teams had fewer takeaways than the Cardinals’ 17 in 2023.

Another thing Arizona doesn’t specialize in is stopping the run, as it was second-worst in that regard a year ago. Bills’ OC Joe Brady emphasized the ground game when he took over midway through 2023. That also coincided with Buffalo closing out the season by winning six of its last seven regular-season games as the combo of RB James Cook and Allen should be too much for the Cards to handle. The model projects those two to combine for over 130 rushing yards, as the Bills (-6) cover in almost 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.