2024 NFL Week 1 picks, best bets: Chiefs set to challenge 2007 Patriots, enter their ‘Villain Era’

The Chiefs open the season on Thursday just seven months off the most inauspicious Super Bowl win ever, their second in a row. Conventional wisdom dictates Kansas City will play it safe and go full Bill Belichick: find out what your team is roughly 12 weeks in, maximize your efficiency for the playoffs, keep everyone healthy and do something no franchise has ever done — a three-peat — regardless of era. 

What if the Chiefs are about to launch face first into their Villain Era? It’s too obvious to be allegory so let’s put this more clearly: Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes might not play it safe in 2024. They might, completely unprompted by in the sense of an alleged widespread cheating scandal, just go full 2007 Patriots on the NFL. 

If you weren’t there, you don’t know. The Patriots didn’t heel turn, per se, because they were already a problem. But the 2007 Patriots were loathed, despised and the top item on every single sports talk show every single day. There were roughly two and the internet wasn’t even big. But the Pats dropped a nuclear bomb on the NFL that year to the point everyone was sports shouting about whether they should stop running up the score. 

The Chiefs might do it this year chasing unprecedented levels of team success. There are multiple reasons why — some narrative-driven, some simply based on scheme and personnel — but before we look at why, it’s important to know the historical context of what it would mean for this Chiefs roster. 

The 2007 Backdrop

In 2006, the Patriots went 12-4 with Reche Caldwell as their leading receiver and snuck into the AFC title game by beating a much better Chargers team thanks to a wild Marlon McCree pick/fumble. This is not a joke: Caldwell was the Pats leading receiver with 750 yards that year. They won because Tom and Bill were at the peak of their craft. Or so we thought? 

Belichick knew he needed more firepower on offense. So he snagged Randy Moss for a fourth-round pick from the Raiders. If you’re worried about inflation, well, the Eagles gave up a third-rounder for D’Andre Swift two years ago. Everyone thought Moss was done. The spoilers are obvious so … Wes Welker. The Pats gave up a second- and seventh-round pick for Welker. 

People don’t realize it but Welker statistically was basically prime Megatron in the Patriots offense. 

Anyway, the Patriots, heading into 2007, were supposed to be great. They had been for almost a decade. But there wasn’t a person on the planet who saw 16-0 coming before the season (maybe Vegas, they were +250 to win the Super Bowl, which is hilarious). The rhetoric didn’t align. 

Then things exploded. Former Patriots coach — and Belichick mentee — Eric Mangini, then with the Jets, let it fly that New England filmed opponents signals on the sideline to gain an advantage. I’m not going to legislate that here, but if you were of adult comprehension in 2007, this was the biggest deal in the sports world. SpyGate has it’s own Wikipedia page and inside there is a separate subsection entitled “Congressional attention,” which was certainly not minimal. 

All of this is to say: every single team who lost to the Patriots in this span has a claim for concern. I’ve talked to multiple people from multiple teams who lost big games in this era and they all still wonder if they lost because of the Pats shenanigans. This does not include Andy Reid … from a talking perspective. 

But, Andy Reid is not just the NFL’s current crown jewel of coaching and offensive masterminding. He is also, and this may surprise you, the best mac and cheese cook ever. (No joke, Andy doesn’t play.) 

He also lost to the Pats in 2003 in the middle of an incredible run by the Eagles in a loaded NFC. He more than likely feels the Patriots’ alleged spying on other teams impacted his ability to win a Super Bowl early in his career. I would guess he’s good pals with Belichick and respects the former Pats coach, but also harbors a little early-career resentment. 

What better time to put that to rest than the present? 

The Legacy

Fast forward and it’s 2024. Bill Belichick, the undisputed greatest coach of all time, just got fired by the team he turned into a dynasty. He’s busy with Underdog and the ManningCast and SnapFace/Instagram. He’s no longer in charge of a dynasty. 

Dynasties are rare. And we love trying to find the new one like we love to choke down oxygen. It would be nearly impossible to topple the Patriots’ reign, unless you win three titles in a row and four in five years. 

Remember this: post SpyGate the Patriots were being absolutely dogged for not winning a title. Eli Manning is a helluva drug, apparently. The Patriots’ dynasty only stretched as long as it did because of the late-career surge from Tom Brady. 

Early career Brady? He wasn’t early-career Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have a chance to be better than the Patriots. Even the Pats couldn’t win three Super Bowls in a row. Brady and Belichick managed a total of six over the course of two decades.

If the Chiefs won three in a row, it would be the ultimate statement on their status as the new NFL dynasty. Well, almost. The ultimate statement would be the Chiefs bouncing back offensively off of last year’s meh performance and putting together a 2007 Pats-like run where they blitzkrieg everyone in their path and Mahomes steamrolls to another unanimous MVP award while throwing for 5,000 passing yards and 50+ touchdowns. 

So what’s holding him back? Nothing, now thanks to some subtle upgrades this offseason.

The Personnel

We know the Chiefs can win with “just” Patrick Mahomes. They showed that when they traded Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins and the whole world decided Mahomes was toast. K.C. closed +160 to win the AFC West that year, then promptly sewed it up by Thanksgiving and won a title. Whoops! 

Defenses were progressively adjusting to the Chiefs offense anyway, with the explosion downfield helping berth the two-high shells designed to force Mahomes to be patient and take what he could get underneath. Mahomes was patient and adjusted and the Chiefs offense was just fine. Until last year when it took a while for Rashee Rice to come along and everyone else had the whoopsies with their hands. The Chiefs literally lost their first game because of Kadarius Toney’s hands, or lack thereof. 

Enter Xavier Worthy, the all-time record holder for fastest 40 at the combine. Worthy’s speed — and he’s not just a burner either, he can run routes — is a perfect match with the current Chiefs personnel. 

Rice isn’t likely to be suspended at all this year, with a suspension much more likely in 2025, if at all, depending on how the legal process plays out. He and Kelce can chew up defenses underneath in a variety of ways. Defenses could squat on those in the past, but will find things much harder with Worthy able to take the top off the defense thanks to his speed. 

Isiah Pacheco enters his third year for K.C. and quietly has developed into a semi-workhorse, a guy with no other real competition on the depth chart, who can be the physical, downhill punisher whenever the Chiefs want to close out games. And if they need a pass-catching specialist, they just picked up Samaje Perine (sneakily efficient!) for free. 

Oh, and by the by, Hollywood Brown will be back in the fold after Week 1 or Week 2, giving the Chiefs yet another weapon in the pass game. Lord help NFL defenses if Skyy Moore somehow backdoors developing into a threat as well. 

All of this is to say: be careful fading the Chiefs. There’s a reasonable chance they want to put their stamp on history, to enter their Villain Era, to go from the team everyone loves watching to the team everyone loathes because they’re destroying the opposition week in and week out. A three-peat would be historical, no question. But a three-peat that set the rest of the NFL on fire? That would be truly legendary. 

I think there’s a decent chance it starts Thursday. And while there are lots of “Lamar Jackson covers the spread as a dog” stats out there, there are just as many “Patrick Mahomes covers the spread as a short fave” stats as well. 

Pick: Chiefs -3

Other Week 1 best bets

Packers (+2) vs. Eagles (Brazil)

The Eagles are going to be good this year, even if I don’t think they’ll be as good as Eagles fans. (Related: please stop tweeting at me because I said the Eagles would go 9-8, Eagles fans. I’m begging you.) The Packers, however, might be REAL good. And I think they come out of the gates hot on Friday night with a newish-look offense centered around Josh Jacobs and a physical run game with Jordan Love distributing the ball to myriad playmakers. Add in the fact the Eagles are adjusting to a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore and won’t have Jason Kelce or Fletcher Cox on the field for the first time in forever and, well, I think we could see a slow start for Philly against a Packers team prepared for a Super Bowl run.

Bills/Cardinals Over 48

I’m targeting Arizona early for Overs this season, first because they have a much-improved offense headlined by the additions of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey Benson, the continued development of young weapons like Trey McBride, Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch and a healthy Kyler Murray. But second because the pass rush just doesn’t look like it will be a massive factor. This defense could be a year-plus away just because of how they’re rebuilding in the desert. That means lots of shootouts. On the other side, the Bills are starting Damar Hamlin at safety. It’s a fun story, but probably won’t result in a ton of stops on the backend. 

Jaguars/Dolphins Over 49

Another fairly high Week 1 total and I don’t care. The Dolphins pass rush is in shambles right now and I don’t think they’ll be able to stop anyone. The Jaguars will want to showcase their new vertical weapons in Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis. Trevor Lawrence got paid this offseason and he needs to look good early; his health was a major contributor to his decline in the second half last year, so I feel good about the odds of a big Week 1 here. Plus, the Jags have to keep up with Miami, a notoriously hot-starting team with TONS of weapons between Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane and the newly added Jonnu Smith/Malik Washington combo. Tua Tagovailoa also wants to showcase his new contract and prove to people he was worth the money. Points galore in Florida here.

Titans (+3.5) at Bears

Pretty easy fade-the-public situation here. I think the Titans are major value early in the season, with everyone expecting them to be terrible. No one wants anything to do with the Titans this year, because they’ve rebooted and don’t have many players of note. But adding Brian and Bill Callahan won’t be a downgrade from Mike Vrabel. It might be an upgrade. Will Levis could take a step and has plenty of weapons with DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and the spicy tendy combo of Tony Pollard/Tyjae Spears in the backfield. Everyone loves the Bears this year, and with good reason. But their expectations have gotten a bit inflated and we are talking about a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams. A hiccup or two wouldn’t be shocking.