NFL

NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model eyes Bills, Chargers in Week 1, 2024

by
SaC Bot
September 4, 2024

USATSI

The Sunday slate during the Week 1 NFL schedule features four 1 p.m. ET games, highlighted by Cowboys vs. Browns. It’s a best versus best matchup, as Dallas’ No. 1 scoring offense from 2023 takes on Cleveland’s top-ranked total defense. The Browns are 2.5-point favorites, per the Week 1 NFL odds, and will host the Cowboys for just the third time in the last 33 years. Other early Sunday afternoon contests include Raiders vs. Chargers (-3), Broncos vs. Seahawks (-6) and Commanders vs. Buccaneers (-3).

The Cowboys have won three straight games in Cleveland, but Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and company will have to face former teammate Amari Cooper this time around. Which top-ranked unit will be the difference-maker in this matchup, and which side of one of the smallest Week 1 NFL spreads should you back? All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. Jim Harbaugh will become the first person to ever coach an NFL game the season after winning a college national championship, and history indicates he’ll start the 2024 NFL season in a similar fashion to how he ended the 2023 college season. Harbaugh is 4-0 all-time in NFL season openers. All four games have been won by more than 3.5 points as the average margin of victory over those contests is 10.3 points.

Additionally, Harbaugh’s teams have zero turnovers in those Week 1 contests, while the Raiders have lost six straight games in which their defense failed to force a turnover. Apart from Harbaugh, Los Angeles has its own bit of Week 1 success as it has won four straight Week 1 matchups against the Raiders, a stretch which dates back to 2006. Add in that the Chargers are 4-1 overall over their last five season openers, and the model has L.A. (-3.5) covering over 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6.5) cover at home versus the Cardinals. Being at home is important, as the Bills have hosted the Cardinals five times in franchise history, and they’ve covered in all five of those games. Overall, Buffalo is 7-1 against the spread over the last eight meetings with Arizona.

Both teams have dual-threat QBs, but the defenses they will oppose aren’t on par. The model gives Josh Allen the edge in that regard as he faces a unit that ranked 31st in scoring defense last year, while Kyler Murray has to face the fourth-ranked defense. Allen is projected to have one more passing TD than Murray, while also having 20 more rushing yards than the Cards QB. With Buffalo’s defense forecasted to have twice as many sacks as Arizona’s, the Bills are expected to win by two scores and cover nearly 70% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.