NFL

NFC expert picks 2024: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions, champ

by
SaC Bot
September 4, 2024

Keytron Jordan, CBS Sports

The NFC was the San Francisco 49ers invitational last season, a conference that showed the 49ers supremacy over the course of the year. Of course, San Francisco was challenged by the Green Bay Packers in the NFC divisional round and the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship game, setting the stage for a wide-open conference in 2024.

Is the 49ers’ window closing? Will this be their last shot to win a Super Bowl with this core? Are the Lions ready to make their first Super Bowl appearance ever? Can the Packers take the next step after a surprising 2023? What about the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys? Are the NFC East powerhouse teams still Super Bowl contenders?

Our CBS Sports NFL experts have provided their picks and predictions for the NFC ahead of the 2024 season.

Most overrated team

Cody Benjamin (Falcons): Can they win the NFC South? Absolutely. Will they? Probably. Yet they’ve been pretty widely crowned the favorites despite their 36-year-old quarterback coming off a major injury — a quarterback, we might add, who doesn’t exactly have the resume of a big-game juggernaut. This team should be good, but even in a weak division, it’s hard to call them a slam dunk.

John Breech (Saints): This feels like it could the final year for both Derek Carr and Dennis Allen in New Orleans.

Jordan Dajani (Bears): Vegas is expecting the Bears to have their first winning season since 2018 with a rookie quarterback and new offensive coordinator. Let’s chill out a bit here.

Bryan DeArdo (Cowboys): Full disclosure, I don’t think the Cowboys are that overrated. But given all the media attention they receive, it’s hard not to give them said title. They also did little this offseason to improve a defense that got torched by Green Bay in last year’s playoff upset.

Jared Dubin (Falcons): I’m not sure why I should have a ton of confidence in a team whose 36-year-old quarterback is coming off a torn Achilles. I ended up picking them to win the decrepit NFC South anyway, but that is way more about the other teams in the division than it is about them.

Josh Edwards (Packers): It is more difficult to identify an underrated team in the NFC than it is the AFC. In the NFC, it feels like there is a clear line of delineation in quality between the top of the conference and the bottom, but I will go with the Packers. It is a tough division, the offensive line is a bit of a mystery and Jeff Hafley’s defensive operation is new to the organization.

Jeff Kerr (Packers): Green Bay is going to be good in 2024, but is it a top-three team in the NFC? Not sure how the offensive line will play out and there are some legitimate concerns at linebacker. The Packers are still a playoff team and can make a deep playoff run, but let’s not crown them as kings of the conference just yet.

Garrett Podell (Eagles): This is a franchise that became just the second in NFL history to finish with at least seven losses, including the postseason, after a 10-1 start, joining the 1986 New York Jets. Six-time first-team All-Pro center Jason Kelce retired after 13 seasons with the Eagles (2011-2023), thus robbing Philly of his football IQ and future Hall of Fame play at one of the game’s most important offensive positions. The Eagles also have a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore following his one-year stint with the Los Angeles Chargers. It’s unclear if quarterback Jalen Hurts can operate in a similar way to that of Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, the passer whom Moore has had his greatest NFL success.

Defensively, Philadelphia is relying on rookies to patch up its leaky secondary. The defense should be better in 2024, but it’s unclear how much better it will be. For a team that is tied for the fifth-best odds to win the Super Bowl in the upcoming season (+1300 on Caesars Sportsbook), it has a lot of question marks.

Dan Schneier (Eagles): In the season’s final stretch, they lost to the lowly Giants and got demolished in the playoffs. While they replaced their offensive coordinator who was made a scape goat, Nick Sirriani remains. A declining running back doesn’t make up for the loss of Jason Kelce, and Jalen Hurts needs to prove he can defeat coordinators who will force him to break pocket to his right or left.

Tyler Sullivan (Bears): Understandably, there’s excitement in Chicago. It finally seems to have a franchise quarterback that will help bring the organization toward consistent contention. However, I don’t believe that’ll happen in Year 1. Do I think Caleb Williams will become one of the top five quarterbacks in the league sooner rather than later? Yes. But to ask a rookie — even someone as talented as Williams — to lift his team to the postseason out of the gate is a tall order. Still, there seems to be plenty of folks who are penciling the Bears in for him to do just that. I think that’s a touch premature.

Most underrated team

Cody Benjamin (Seahawks): Geno Smith may not be “it” at this stage of his career, and their O-line remains iffy, but the skill weapons are elite, and now Mike Macdonald is in charge of a surprisingly well-stocked defense. If the San Francisco 49ers take even a mild step back, it’s not unreasonable to think this team could sneak up and challenge for the NFC West.

John Breech (Rams): Everyone slept on the Rams last year and it feels like they’re being slept on again this year.

Jordan Dajani (Cardinals): In Jonathan Gannon’s first season as lead man, the Cards were one of two teams to beat both the Eagles and Cowboys, and they had more wins vs. playoff teams than the Dolphins and Chiefs COMBINED. I’m excited to see what this team is capable of in 2024, and you know Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to have an immediate impact.

Bryan DeArdo (Cardinals, Commanders): I’ve got a tie between the Cardinals and Commanders. Arizona’s success last year upon Kyler Murray’s return from injury was largely slept on. And the Commanders have a solid structure in place that is complemented by a solid roster.

Jared Dubin (Cardinals, at least on offense): Quietly, Arizona had a really good running game last year. With Kyler Murray healthy for the full season and Marvin Harrison Jr. joining Trey McBride, Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch in the pass-catching corps, the passing game should catch up. These dudes are going to be in a lot of shootouts, because the defense is…still not good.

Josh Edwards (Eagles): They still have one of the most talented, deepest rosters in the league. The coordinator changes made this offseason should be a net positive over last year’s.

Jeff Kerr (Cardinals): This team is going to win more than four games. They were a solid team once Kyler Murray returned at quarterback, and now they have the game’s best rookie in Marvin Harrison Jr. Arizona can also run the ball very efficiently. Its defense is still a major work in progress, but the Cardinals are on the right track.

Garrett Podell (Packers): The 49ers, Lions and Eagles are getting a lot of attention as potential NFC contenders, but the NFL’s youngest team to win a playoff game since the 1970 NFL/AFL merger (average age of 25 years and 214 days) feels overlooked in comparison to them. Quarterback Jordan Love’s Packers offense set NFL single-season records for most catches (302), receiving yards (3,642) and receiving touchdowns (31) by first- or second-year players in 2023. All of these key contributors — Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks — return in 2024, and are supplemented by 26-year-old, 2022 NFL rushing champion Josh Jacobs.

Defensively, Green Bay has a new, much more aggressive defensive coordinator in Jeff Hafley after years of dropping back into more passive zone coverages under Joe Barry. General manager Brian Gutekunst also signed the NFL’s best safety in coverage (91.2 Pro Football Focus coverage grade, best among safeties) in Xavier McKinney. Green Bay could explode for a huge 2024 after sneaking into the postseason as the seventh seed in 2023.

Dan Schneier (Saints): Derek Carr is fully recovered from a shoulder injury that sapped New Orleans’ ability to use every blade of grass and the addition of Klint Kubiak will spark an offense that will finally move into this century from a pre-snap motion and play-action passing rate standpoint. The schedule is one of the NFL’s easiest and the defense is as engrained in this scheme as all but a handful of teams.

Tyler Sullivan (Seahawks): I loved the coaching overhaul. The hiring of former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to become Seattle’s new head coach should elevate the play of what is already an exciting defense that has second-year defensive back Devon Witherspoon and rookie defensive tackle Byron Murphy II as young building blocks. Meanwhile, the Seahawks offense arguably has the best three-headed monster at wide receiver in the league, and new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should orchestrate a bounce-back year for Geno Smith and company. This is a playoff team and no one seems to be noticing.

Bold predictions

Cody Benjamin: Three of the NFC’s seven playoff teams (or 43%) will come from the NFC North alone. The Lions have a top-shelf roster. The Packers have a dynamic coach-quarterback combo. The Bears have newfound razzle-dazzle around Caleb Williams. And the Minnesota Vikings have splashy starters on both sides of the ball despite quarterback questions.

John Breech: Rams win the NFC West. The Rams have a loaded offense, and if the defense can survive the loss of Aaron Donald, this team has a legit chance to win the division over the 49ers.

Bryan DeArdo: 49ers win it all. OK, this isn’t a really bold prediction, but it somewhat is given the history of Super Bowl runner-ups. Another bold prediction is the Commanders earning a wild-card berth.

Jordan Dajani: Falcons have a top-10 defense. Despite the lack of household names on the defensive side of the ball, and the fact that Atlanta passed on a first-round pass rusher or cornerback for quarterback Michael Penix Jr., Raheem Morris will still have this team playing good defense.

Jared Dubin: The Saints finally bottom out. The offensive line is bad. Derek Carr is not it. Alvin Kamara is getting up there in age. So is almost the entire defense. This team loves nothing more than pretending it is still close to contention, but that comes to an end this year.

Josh Edwards: Sam Darnold finally lives up to draft pick. The veteran QB leads the Vikings to the postseason and a wild-card win.

Jeff Kerr: Dennis Allen is the first head coach fired. The Saints are old and aren’t very good. Not fooled by last year’s finish.

Garrett Podell: The Packers win the Super Bowl. Green Bay’s youth fires on all cylinders after a year of feeling out life in the NFL together with Love and Co. executing head coach Matt LaFleur’s wildest dreams on the field. A season ago, they nearly knocked off the top-seeded, eventual NFC champion San Francisco 49ers on the road. This year, they make that leap and go all the way.

Dan Schneier: Caleb Williams makes history. The No. 1 overall pick breaks the rookie quarterback record for passing yards AND passing touchdowns while also becoming the first Bears quarterback (rookie or non rookie) in NFL history to throw for 4,000-plus yards.

Tyler Sullivan: Packers hoist Lombardi Trophy. Green Bay — spearheaded by Jordan Love — become the class of the NFC and win Super Bowl LIX.