NFL

NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model eyeing Bills, Chargers in Week 1, 2024

by
SaC Bot
September 1, 2024

USATSI

Backing NFL home underdogs can be a popular NFL betting strategy, though the Week 1 NFL schedule presents just two opportunities to do that. One of those games has the Giants as 1-point home underdogs to the Vikings. New York was shellacked 40-0 by Dallas in last year’s season-opener as a home dog, but managed to finish 2023 with a 5-2-1 record in that situation. The five wins were the most in the league, while the 71.4% cover percentage was third-best (min. two games). Utilizing NFL betting trends and being aware of recent history is probably the best NFL betting advice that anyone could follow.

The other home dog in the Week 1 NFL spreads is the Colts getting 2.5 points versus the Texans. All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3.5) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. Las Vegas’ Maxx Crosby is undeniably one of the most talented defensive linemen in the NFL, but the Raiders still gave up 118.5 rushing yards per game last season, which ranked 21st in the league. Opposing teams can neutralize Crosby’s talent by running the ball, and that’s exactly what Chargers new head coach Jim Harbaugh loves to do.

In addition, quarterback Justin Herbert is entering his fifth season with the Chargers and he’s thrown 15 touchdowns while rushing for three scores when playing the Raiders in his career. SportsLine’s model sees Los Angeles prevailing by a touchdown and covering as 3.5-point favorites nearly 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6) cover at home versus the Cardinals. Arizona has a tendency to get out to slow season starts as it has won just two Week 1 contests over the last eight years. Last year’s Cardinals team had the second-worst NFL record (4-13), with defensive struggles a big reason why. Arizona allowed the most rushing yards, the second-most points and the third-most passing touchdowns as it underperformed in all areas.

Meanwhile, Josh Allen may generate enough points, himself, to cover the spread. He’s accounted for multiple touchdowns in each of his last eight games, with 22 total touchdowns over that span. His team is also balanced after ranking in the top six in scoring offense, total offense and scoring defense a year ago. Buffalo is an AFC contender while Arizona is in its rebuilding phase, and that should be apparent on the field as the Bills are projected to cover in almost 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.