Should you go for a three or settle for a two-point bucket in the final minute? When do you pull the goalie? When do you call up the bullpen? Thanks to sports nerds, there’s an answer for all of those questions and there is no shortage of stats, including BetUS scores and odds, to base your choice on.
For NBA player props bettors, there is an overlooked stat that needs more attention. True Shooting Percentage (TS%), a stat that separates the ballers from the bricklayers (and everyone in that hilarious in-between zone). If Billy Beane and Peter Brand, the minds behind Moneyball, had NBA equivalents, they would be recruiting ballers with a high true shooting percentage.
What Is True Shooting Percentage (TS%) In Basketball
True Shooting Percentage, or TS%, is like the moneyball of basketball statistics. It takes into account not just field goals, but also free throws and three-pointers, giving a more accurate picture of a player’s shooting efficiency.
While traditional shooting percentages look at field goals made versus field goals attempted, TS% digs deeper. It considers the value of different types of shots, recognizing that not all points are created equal. A three-pointer, for instance, is worth more than a two-pointer, and free throws add another layer of complexity.
To put it simply, TS% is calculated using the following formula:
TS% = Points / (2 * (Field Goal Attempts + 0.44 * Free Throw Attempts))
This formula might look like something out of a high school algebra class, but it’s actually pretty straightforward once you break it down. Essentially, it’s taking the total points scored and dividing it by an estimate of the total shooting possessions. The 0.44 multiplier for free throw attempts is a bit of statistical voodoo to account for and-one situations and technical fouls.
Why Should Anyone Care About True Shooting Percentage (TS%) In Basketball
Smart NBA GMs and savvy player prop bettors want someone who can score efficiently, making the most out of each possession. That’s where TS% shines. It provides a clearer picture of a player’s scoring efficiency by combining all aspects of shooting into one neat package. TS% is a measure of scoring efficiency based on the number of points scored over the number of possessions in which they attempted to score.
Imagine you have two players. Player A scores a lot of points but takes a ton of shots to get there. Player B scores slightly fewer points but does so with fewer shots and better free-throw shooting. Traditional stats might favor Player A because they score more, but TS% would likely show that Player B is actually more efficient and valuable to the team’s success.
Take Stephen Curry, for instance. He is widely considered to be the best shooter the game has seen and has consistently posted TS% above 60% throughout his career. His ability to drain threes like they’re going out of style gives him a massive boost in TS%, even if his traditional field goal percentage might not look as impressive as some other players.
Now compare him to a mid-range scorer like DeMar DeRozan who thrives on his ability to get to the basket. His career FG% sits above 50%, but his declining three-point attempts and average free throws keep his TS% in the mid-50s.
But wait, there’s more! TS% isn’t just for long-distance shooters draining threes from the logo. Big men like Nikola Jokic and Rudy Gobert also shine in this metric, thanks to their knack for scoring efficiently around the basket and knocking down free throws. It’s like TS% is the great equalizer, giving credit where credit is due, regardless of playing style.
The Benefits of Using TS%
- Comprehensive Evaluation: TS% gives a more holistic view of a player’s shooting efficiency. It considers the value of three-pointers and free throws, offering a nuanced evaluation beyond basic field goal percentage.
- Efficiency Over Volume: By emphasizing efficiency, TS% helps identify players who contribute more effectively to the team’s scoring without needing a high volume of shots.
- Comparable Across Eras: Since TS% accounts for different types of scoring, it can be used to compare players from different eras more fairly. This makes it a valuable tool for debates about the greatest shooters in history.
- Better Team Insights: Coaches and analysts can use TS% to make better decisions about player roles and minutes. Players with higher TS% are often more reliable in crunch time, helping teams make smarter tactical choices.
The Drawbacks of Using TS%
But, let’s not get too carried away. Like any statistic, TS% has its limitations.
- Doesn’t Account for Defense: TS% focuses solely on scoring efficiency. It doesn’t consider a player’s defensive abilities or other contributions like playmaking and rebounding.
- Dependent on Context: A player’s TS% can be influenced by their role on the team. For example, a player who takes fewer but more selective shots might have a higher TS% than a star player who has to take difficult shots under pressure.
- Ignores Shot Difficulty: TS% doesn’t account for the difficulty of shots taken. A player who takes a lot of tough, contested shots might have a lower TS% but still be extremely valuable to their team.
Conclusion
In the end, True Shooting Percentage (TS%) is a powerful metric in the basketball analytics arsenal. It offers a comprehensive view of a player’s scoring efficiency, balancing the value of deep three’s and uncontested free throws to provide a clearer picture of their performance. While it has its drawbacks, the benefits of using TS% to evaluate and compare players are undeniable.
Go to Source
Author: Team Dunkest
July 4, 2024 | 9:00 am
