The 2024 Fantasy Football season is on the way and the Fantasy Football Today team has drafted their initial player outlooks for the entire player pool heading into training camp. Things will change on the injury front, in free agency and possibly on the trade market, but the Fantasy Football team led by Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings and Dan Schneier have created player outlooks based on 2024 projection, June ADP (average draft position) and where these players have come off the board in our mock (and real) drafts through May and June. We’ll use the FFT consensus PPR rankings (Jamey, Dave and Heath’s rankings) to go player-by-player for the third round (12-team leagues) of your drafts.
*These consensus rankings are updated through June 10th.*
Round 3
“There is a lot of excitement surrounding London heading into his third season for two main reasons: The new offensive system he’s playing in and the upgrade at quarterback going from Desmond Ridder to Kirk Cousins. In 2023 under Arthur Smith, London played just the 29th-most snaps among WRs and he had just the 33rd-most targets per game. Those numbers are expected to take a significant leap in 2024. The upgrade to Cousins is even more significant. Both Marcus Mariota and Ridder struggled with on-target passing rate, delivering the ball to all areas of the field and giving London the contested-catch opportunities his skill set demands. However, Cousins will need to turn London into the weekly WR1 machine he made Justin Jefferson to pay back his ADP. London is rising and you’ll have to grab him at some point in Round 2 if you want him on your Fantasy rosters in 2024..” – Dan Schneier
“We’re drafting Waddle as a high-end No. 2 wide receiver early in Round 3 of full PPR drafts. While Waddle’s production from 2023 may look like a letdown after 2022, that had more to do with health than anything. In the 12 games that he played more than 50% of the snaps, Waddle averaged 15.6 PPR Fantasy points per game, a slight uptick from his 2022 pace. He is one of 10 wide receivers to earn at least 350 targets since the start of 2021 and averaged better than nine yards per target. Waddle also has enormous upside if something happens to Tyreek Hill. He scored 28.2 Fantasy points in his lone game without Hill last year. Waddle is a top-12 Dynasty wide receiver who we view as more likely to move up than down in the coming year.” – Heath Cummings
“Aiyuk would be a Fantasy monster if he garnered more than the 6.6 targets per game he had in 2023, but he’s still a borderline top-12 WR even without the mega-volume. That’s because he proved to be among the most efficient receivers in the NFL last season, ranking top three at the position in yards per catch (17.9), yards per route run (3.06), yards per target (12.8 was tops in football) and explosive reception rate (a gain of at least 16 yards on 35.2% of his grabs, way ahead of the rest in the league). The best part is that of Aiyuk’s 37 receptions of 16-plus yards, a dozen were on short receptions that Aiyuk turned upfield on for longer gains. It suggests Aiyuk is more than just a deep-ball receiver, though it is those splash plays that helped him land some dominant weeks last year (four with 20-plus PPR). A lift in targets would do so much more for him, and it’s a possibility not only because of his talent and value to the Niners but also because of the ages of both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, both of whom take targets away. Tack on Aiyuk playing in a contract year and you have the potential for a humongous season. Aiyuk is worth rolling the dice on in Round 3 in all leagues.” – Dave Richard
“Collins finally broke out in 2023 after flashing signs of it earlier in his career. The combination of C.J. Stroud at quarterback and a Bobby Slowik-designed offensive scheme that allowed him space to operate made the difference in his breakout. The Slowik system is designed to create yards after the catch and Collins had a career year in that metric. He also finished ranked second among all WRs in yards per route run (3.11) — a sticky year-over-year metric used to project future success. Collins scored the seventh-most Fantasy points per game in 2023, but that number might be difficult to repeat if Tank Dell can play a full season and with the addition of Stefon Diggs. Still, Collins makes for a solid target in Round 3 of your Fantasy drafts.” – Dan Schneier
3.5: Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers
“Samuel proved in 2023 that he’s still a fierce stat producer, averaging 17 PPR points per game even though he left one of his 15 games after nine snaps. It helped that he averaged 2.5 rush attempts per game and 6.1 yards per rush with five rushing touchdowns — take those away and he would have averaged 12.7 PPR points per game. If he maintains his prominent role in the Niners offense he should be a locked-in starter. Just keep in mind that he’s 28 and has missed multiple games in three of his past four campaigns. Samuel is a quality No. 2 Fantasy WR worth a third-round choice, but the younger Aiyuk has more upside.” – Dave Richard
“LaPorta was one of the biggest breakouts in 2023 as a rookie when he averaged 14.1 PPR points per game. He enters this season with the chance to be the No. 1 Fantasy tight end on Draft Day, and he’s worth drafting toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all leagues. It will come down to if LaPorta goes ahead of guys like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews or Trey McBride, and we like LaPorta first of that group, slightly ahead of Kelce. LaPorta should remain a focal point for Jared Goff this season in Ben Johnson’s offense, and LaPorta was one of seven players to score at least 10 touchdowns in 2023. He should continue to improve heading into his second year in the NFL, and LaPorta has the chance to be the No. 1 tight end in Fantasy for many years to come.” – Jamey Eisenberg
“Mahomes will be one of the first quarterbacks, if not the first quarterback, taken in Fantasy drafts. To some, that could be surprising since he was 10th among passers last season with just 20.9 Fantasy points per game. But others who choose to look forward will acknowledge new Chiefs wide receivers Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy as reasons why Mahomes’ numbers could resurge. Both wideouts offer impressive speed and can stretch defenses, perfect for Mahomes to either connect for splash plays or find wide-open options closer to the line of scrimmage. And if Travis Kelce isn’t forced to play through injuries like he did last year, Mahomes’ receiving corps will be quite strong. Frankly, no elite-tier quarterback saw his situation improve more than Mahomes this offseason, a scary thought for his opponents and a magnificent thought for those who have him in their lineups. Mahomes will be a top-three pick in Superflex/two-QB leagues and among the first few quarterbacks off the board between 20th and 35th overall in one-QB formats.” – Dan Schneier
“Is one bad, injury-plagued season enough to downgrade or even ignore Kupp? In the two seasons prior, Kupp averaged 25.3 and 22.4 PPR points per game in what were golden seasons as Matthew Stafford’s unquestioned top receiver. The situation has obviously changed with Puka Nacua becoming a prominent target, but Kupp still saw 7.9 targets per game from Week 5 on, and that includes a Week 11 game he left early. Kupp also had an edge over Nacua in red-zone targets and avoided tackle rate in that span and scored just as many receiving touchdowns (five). Where Kupp lagged was in explosiveness, where Nacua clearly looked like the fresher player, which wasn’t at all surprising since Nacua is roughly eight years younger and wasn’t hurt like Kupp was. If Kupp can get through the preseason without any setbacks and perhaps some glowing reports, he shapes up to be among the best bounce-back candidates in Fantasy. Count on him as a WR2 worth a third-round pick in PPR redraft, and a fourth-rounder in non-PPR.” – Dan Schneier
3.9: Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
“Kelce will be one of the first two tight ends drafted in every league because of his big role in the Chiefs offense, but Father Time is working against him. Battling injuries for much of 2023, Kelce averaged 19.5 PPR points per game in his first seven games, then 10.4 PPR points per game in his next eight before rebounding to 21.5 PPR points per game in four playoff matchups, including 18.3 in the Super Bowl. Kansas City’s additions at receiver will hinder Kelce to a degree, but the bigger factor is that he’ll turn 35 years old in October and clearly carries some risk after he started last year with a bone bruise in his knee, played through an ankle injury and then had a minor neck issue sideline him for a game. Even with that risk, Kelce has undeniable upside as evidenced by his start and finish to 2023. Don’t gloss over that. Fantasy managers who want an elite tight end without age and injury concerns will pivot to Sam LaPorta over Kelce, but that doesn’t mean Kelce isn’t worth consideration as a top-30 pick since he’ll still see lots of targets as Patrick Mahomes’ most trusted pass-catcher.” – Dave Richard
“We are drafting Hurts as a top-three quarterback in all formats, worthy of a pick as early as Round 3 in one-quarterback leagues. Hurts’ passing efficiency took a step back in 2023, with his yards per attempt and touchdown rate both falling more than 10% from his career highs in 2022. He made up for part of that dropoff with a career-high 15 rushing touchdowns. We expect the arrival of Kellen Moore to be a positive for Hurts’ passing efficiency and Saquon Barkley should do more with his targets than the running backs did last year as well. That should help make up for any regression in terms of rushing touchdowns. After all, we aren’t entirely sure the tush push will work as well without Jason Kelce. Hurts’ Dynasty floor is helped by the long-term deals signed by A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith this offseason.” – Heath Cummings
“Henry turned the page on his Titans career by joining a Ravens offense that made Gus Edwards a Fantasy stalwart. Henry will immediately have double-digit touchdown upside with the Ravens and could ultimately end up challenging Christian McCaffrey for the league lead in TDs. He won’t improve his receptions with Lamar Jackson, but Henry has aged well. Despite now playing on the wrong side of 30, his advanced metrics have held up. Henry is a late-second or early-third-round draft pick and his touchdown upside should keep him in the RB1 range all season.” – Dan Schneier
“Jacobs is expected to be the featured back for the Packers and a candidate to be a top-12 Fantasy RB. While his 2023 season with the Raiders was marred by injuries and a preseason holdout, his 2022 was outstanding as he led the NFL in rushing yards. In that 2022 season, Jacobs handled 15-plus touches in 15 games, averaging 20.8 PPR points in those games (and 19.3 on the season). In 2023, he had 11 games with 15-plus touches and averaged 15.1 PPR points (13.9 for the season). As it is for most running backs, Jacobs has proven to be productive when in a position to get 15 or more touches. In Matt LaFleur’s five years as Packers head coach, at least one running back has had at least 15 touches in 67 of 83 regular-season games. That workload should bode very well for Jacobs as long as he’s healthy. A smart plan could be for a Fantasy manager to take the 26-year-old Jacobs anywhere from 18th to 30th overall, then grab rookie rusher MarShawn Lloyd as an insurance policy to lock up the Green Bay run game in case Jacobs misses time.” – Dave Richard
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Author: Dan Schneier
June 10, 2024 | 3:05 pm
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