NFL

Predicting NFL starting debut for rookie quarterbacks, plus projecting NFC East win totals for 2024

by
SaC Bot
May 29, 2024

Happy midweek, everyone! Can you believe we’re already halfway through the last week of May? Before you know it, minicamps will be raging, training camps will be just around the corner, and the 2024 season will officially be upon us. John Breech is busy pulling strings to ensure the Cincinnati Bengals appease their absentee star wide receivers, or at least we think he is, so you’ve got me, Cody Benjamin, to deliver the latest.

This is the Pick Six newsletter. Now let’s get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you’re signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don’t want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)

We’ve got predicted NFC East records, news and notes from around OTAs, and much more:

1. Projected NFC East win totals: Beware the Eagles

Nick Sirianni USATSI

In lieu of the “Pick Six NFL Podcast,” which is on a break (find the full catalog of episodes right here), host Will Brinson has been diving into projected win totals for every NFL division, offering his own best bets for the 2024 season. Up next: the NFC East, where the Philadelphia Eagles might be getting a bit too much love.

(The Eagles are) back with another robust win total ahead of 2024, but it’s reasonable to be concerned about this team yet again. For one, they vastly overperformed their expected wins (8.5) and also went 7-3 in one-score games (in 2023). I think the addition of Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator will solve a lot of issues on that side of the ball, but I’m not positive Kellen Moore is a big upgrade for the Eagles. Brian Johnson was clearly in over his head, but the Cowboys‘ (after firing Moore) improvement and Chargers‘ struggles should cause some concerns in Philly. Then there’s the loss of Jason Kelce on the offensive side and Fletcher Cox on the defensive side. Those are two of the biggest leaders and best players on the team. Howie Roseman set up the succession strategy well with Cam Jurgens and Jordan Davis/Jalen Carter, but there could be a drop-off, especially early on. Philly profiles like a playoff team, but I’m not convinced it’ll steamroll to 11-plus wins with a difficult schedule. Pick: Eagles under 10.5 (-125)

Spring practices were bright and sunny in Miami to start the week, with Tua Tagovailoa back on the field and slinging deep shots. Head coach Mike McDaniel was particularly complimentary of the quarterback, who’s been in and out of offseason programming while seeking a long-term contract. Elsewhere, in Dallas, severe storms forced the Cowboys to delay their second week of OTAs until Wednesday, with wind gusts knocking out power at The Star, the team’s expansive Frisco headquarters.

Ja’Marr Chase

Joe Burrow was on the grass for the Cincinnati Bengals to start the week, but he was missing his top two weapons in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The former is technically under contract through 2025, but after three straight Pro Bowl seasons to start his career, he’s eligible for a long-term raise. Higgins, on the other hand, has yet to sign the franchise tag the Bengals applied in February, and reportedly remains in search of a trade. Coach Zac Taylor downplayed the big-name absences, telling reporters Wednesday the pass catchers “will be ready and focused when it’s time.”

Houston made a splash out wide this offseason by acquiring Stefon Diggs from the Buffalo Bills. Now the Texans have rewarded one of their homegrown standouts, on Tuesday agreeing with Nico Collins on a three-year, $72.75 million deal that’ll pay the 2023 breakout more than Diggs on a per-year basis. Collins, 25, approached 1,300 yards as C.J. Stroud’s top target last season, and his new annual haul of $24.25 million makes him one of the NFL’s top 10 highest-paid receivers.

5. Projecting when rookie QBs make their debut

Drake Maye, left

A record six quarterbacks went in the first round of this year’s draft. But which ones will actually see the field at the start of the 2024 season? And is it possible some won’t see the field at all? Resident draft analyst Josh Edwards has assessed each team with a first-round signal-caller to project when everyone from Caleb Williams to Bo Nix makes their first career NFL start. Besides Michael Penix Jr., who’s predicted to “redshirt” 2024, Edwards has the New England Patriots‘ Drake Maye as the latest to debut:

New England is a bit of a tricky situation. Jacoby Brissett is the best competing quarterback (in place). It would not be a surprise if he held off Maye for the entirety of the 2024 regular season. … The trade deadline is Nov. 5 so it would (also) not be shocking if Brissett was moved in a deal, which opens up Week 10 against Caleb Williams and the Bears (as potentially) Maye’s first NFL start.