The NFL offseason has not disappointed. It rarely does. The coaching carousel was in full swing, highlighted by Jim Harbaugh’s return to the NFL. The QB carousel was also moving. Russell Wilson, Justin Fields and Kirk Cousins changed teams. A record six QBs were drafted in the top 12. The trade market was busy. The Bills moved Stefon Diggs. The Chargers traded Keenan Allen. Running backs were actually in demand, just ask Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. A few all-time greats also called it a career (Jason Kelce and Aaron Donald).
As we sort through all the big moves, it’s almost impossible to predict how these transactions will pan out. Case in point, who thought Wilson would flame out in Denver, but Baker Mayfield would thrive in Tampa Bay? I’m sure when any move is made the team has a positive vision of how things could play out if things come together the right way. Let’s call it a best-case scenario.
Well, here’s a best-case scenario for seven teams who made big moves this offseason. Obviously the true best-case scenario would be for each team to win a Super Bowl, but let’s keep things realistic!
Derrick Henry helps power the Ravens to the Super Bowl
Two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and two-time rushing champion Derrick Henry have never played in the Super Bowl. That’s a crime. So naturally, the best-case scenario for the 2024 Ravens would be Jackson getting over the hump thanks to the addition of Henry.
The fit is obvious. Jackson’s lightning-quick speed should open up plenty of running lanes for Henry’s thunderous runs. The Ravens lead the NFL in yards before contact per rush since drafting Jackson and Henry is third in yards after contact per rush in that same span. On paper, they are the perfect complement that could give Baltimore the right formula to finally get over the hump in January.
In the Ravens’ AFC Championship loss to the Chiefs, their running backs combined for six rushes for 23 yards. That’s not going to cut it. While Henry has been on the decline in recent years, he still packs a punch and should be an upgrade over Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and Co.
Saquon Barkley wins a rushing title
Jackson and Henry aren’t the only electric QB-RB duo joining forces. The Eagles signed Saquon Barkley to pair with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ loaded offense. Sound familiar? An extremely talented but injury-prone RB goes from a bad team to a title contender? Christian McCaffrey laid a blueprint the Eagles are hoping Barkley can follow. CMC won a rushing title and Offensive Player of the Year in 2023, following a 2022 midseason trade from the Panthers to the 49ers.
Barkley is definitely capable. He finished fourth in rushing (1,312 yards) in 2022, Daniel Jones‘ last healthy season when the QB eclipsed 700 yards on the ground. Barkley will now be paired with a more dangerous runner in Hurts, in a more dangerous offense with a better line, even with the retirement of Jason Kelce. The Eagles ranked third-best in run-block grade last year while the Giants were third-worst, per PFF.
By the way, there’s only been one QB-RB duo in NFL history with 500 and 1,500 rush yards (respectively) in the same season. Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris for Washington in 2012. I could definitely see Hurts and Barkley joining that company in 2024.
Caleb Williams becomes first Bears QB with 4,000-yard season
The Bears are the only franchise that’s never had a QB with 30 touchdown passes or 4,000 passing yards in a season. One of the most head-scratching stats will come to an end in this best-case scenario because Caleb Williams inherits the best supporting cast for a No. 1 overall pick QB ever.
He’s already the first top-five pick QB to ever inherit multiple 1,200-yard receivers as a rookie. That’s with Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore. He will also have Rome Odunze, who led the nation in receiving yards at Washington last year. That trio had 4,247 combined receiving yards in 2023.
Chicago will also go from one of the most run-heavy offenses to one of the most pass-heavy offenses with new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who comes over from Seattle. My only concern there is the Seahawks used three-plus wide receivers at the 18th-highest rate in the NFL (64%) last year despite having a star WR trio of their own between DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Hopefully Chicago’s big three will be on the field together a lot more than that and Williams will kick off his career with a big rookie season.
Chargers outrush opponents by 500 yards
The best-case scenario for the Chargers is outrushing their opponents by 500 yards this season, which would rank among the top six teams in the NFL. The Chargers lost five of their top six receivers from the Justin Herbert era (2020-23) this offseason between Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett and Jalen Guyton. Part of that was by design as Jim Harbaugh wants a physical football team, a philosophy backed by the team’s decision to trade Allen and Williams, but keep Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. The Chargers also took OT Joe Alt fifth overall, over WR Malik Nabers, who went sixth.
The 49ers led the NFL in rush yards differential (+3,022) in four seasons with Harbaugh (2011-14) and the Chargers ranked second-worst in that category (-1,896) in four seasons since drafting Herbert. In other words, blow a kiss goodbye to the soft Chargers team that had no balance on offense and allowed every team to run down their throat on defense. Expect a physical football team that mirrors the intensity of their new head coach. The Chargers’ blueprint to beating QBs like Patrick Mahomes in the AFC is great QB play, ball control and limiting turnovers. The Chargers could be poised to do that in 2024, and it starts with controlling the line of scrimmage and imposing their will on opponents.
Patrick Mahomes wins third MVP award with deep ball revival
The Chiefs made one of the splashes of the draft by trading up with the Bills for WR Xavier Worthy and his NFL combine-record 4.21 40 time. They also signed former first-round pick WR Marquise Brown (4.27 40 speed) this offseason, giving Kansas City a suddenly fast WR group again with Worthy, Brown and Rashee Rice — if he avoids NFL discipline.
The best outcome for the Chiefs (besides another Super Bowl) is a return to MVP form for Mahomes after his worst career (regular) season in 2023. Mahomes’ evolution is amazing (he won two Super Bowl MVPs in two seasons since the Tyreek Hill trade) but I think we can all agree the best version of Mahomes is the one that also has the constant threat of the big play. Mahomes has two touchdown passes of 20+ air yards in the last two seasons after he had 41 from 2018-21. He had the worst TD-INT ratio in the entire NFL targeting WRs 10+ air yards in 2023 (1-6).
The lack of a downfield threat combined with defenses trying to take away the deep ball has caused Mahomes to rely more on checkdowns, but in a perfect world the Chiefs new WR trio will open things up. Now, 40 times don’t always translate to NFL success (i.e. John Ross), but there is a scenario where Mahomes wins his third MVP thanks to a deep ball revival.
The Bills probably aren’t going to replace the production lost from Stefon Diggs (and Gabe Davis to a lesser extent) with just one player. After all, the only WR on the roster who has ever caught a pass from Josh Allen is Khalil Shakir. It’s going to take a village between rookie second-round pick Keon Coleman, Shakir in the slot, plus versatile tight end Dalton Kincaid and Co.
Can it be done? Yes. If the Chiefs can win back-to-back titles after trading Tyreek Hill, maybe Buffalo can survive without Diggs. Allen isn’t Patrick Mahomes, but hey, Diggs isn’t exactly Hill either. Buffalo’s best-case scenario without Diggs is following the formula that saw them erase a three-game deficit in the AFC East last year with five games to play. A commitment to the run game, fewer Allen turnovers and a balanced passing attack. One realistic goal for Buffalo is to have a trio of 800-yard receivers for the first time in team history between Coleman, Shakir and Kincaid.
Falcons have a Pro Bowl QB, RB, WR and TE
There are more obvious worst-case scenarios for Atlanta thanks to a crowded QB room between Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr., but let’s focus on the positives! Atlanta needs a return on its big investment at the offensive-skill positions. They’ve drafted a QB, RB, WR and TE in the top 10 in four straight drafts and signed Cousins to a four-year deal worth $180 million.
The Falcons’ best-case scenario is Pro Bowl seasons from Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The last team with a Pro Bowl QB, RB, WR and TE in the same season was the 2022 Vikings with Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. So, not farfetched at all.
How can it happen? Getting rid of Arthur Smith and bringing in Cousins is a great start. The Falcons had the second-lowest pass rate (49%) in the last two seasons while Cousins had the highest team pass rate (65%) of any QB in that span with Kevin O’Connell. Cousins could replicate his production in a new uniform as he will be working with another Sean McVay disciple in OC Zac Robinson.
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Author: Douglas Clawson
May 23, 2024 | 8:35 am
