NFL

NFL free agent landing spots for Ryan Tannehill and Xavien Howard, plus predicting AFC East win totals

by
SaC Bot
May 21, 2024

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

If you’re looking for an excuse to visit Australia, the NFL might be giving you one in the near future. It’s looking like the league is considering the possibility of playing a game Down Under, and we’ll be going over the details of that today.

We’ll also be coming up with some landing spots for free agents who are still on the market, and let me just say, there are a lot more free agents left than I thought. Oh, and Will Brinson will be giving us his best bets for every over/under in the AFC East.

As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Actually, you don’t even have to tell all of your friends; just tell two of your friends and I’ll be happy. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.

1. AFC East win totals: Will Brinson’s best bet on each team’s over/under

With the Pick Six Podcast on hiatus, Will Brinson suddenly had some free time this week, so he decided to fill it by going through every over/under in the AFC, starting with the AFC East.

Let’s check out whether Brinson likes the over or the under for each team in that division:

New York Jets
ODDS: Over 9.5 (-130) / Under 9.5 (+110)
LEAN: Under 9.5 (+110)
Brinson’s take: “It comes down to Rodgers’ health behind an offensive line that was questionable coming into the offseason before Joe Douglas added Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses to shore up the weak spot. The Jets GM wasn’t done — and it may speak to the health and contractual status of those free agents — adding Olu Fashanu with the team’s first-round pick. Fashanu starting the season at either LT or RT is either a really good or really bad thing, tbd. … But once again it’s all about Rodgers playing the entire season, which is why taking an over in May is simply too tough to do.”

Miami Dolphins
ODDS: Over 9.5 (-135) / Under (+110)
LEAN: Under 9.5 (+110)
Brinson’s take: “A great example of why the schedule matters for win totals. The Miami Dolphins have started hot the last few years and should come out warm again in 2024. Tua Tagovailoa and Co. get three of their first four games at home and they’ve added more speed this offseason and should be an offensive force early on. But the schedule imbalance means the Fins are getting four or more games in cold weather after Nov. 1, something that’s plagued this team for the last few years (They’ve lost 11 straight when the temperature is under 40 degrees).”

If you want to see how Brinson feels about the Bills or Patriots, you can get his take on those two teams here.

2. Free agency matchmaker: Looking at possible landing spots for remaining free agents

The world’s foremost expert in free agency matchmaking, Cody Benjamin, is back for another round today. If you don’t know how this works, it’s pretty simple: Cody matches the best remaining free agents with the team that would be the best fit for them.

Let’s see what kind of matches Cody has for us today:

Ryan Tannehill to the Dolphins. “The Dolphins’ current insurance plan behind Tua Tagovailoa consists of Mike White and Skylar Thompson, who’ve combined to go 3-6 in emergency starts during their respective careers. Tannehill knows Miami well, and his script-dependent style fits Mike McDaniel’s offense.”
Dalvin Cook to the Bills. “He’s left the door open for playing with his younger brother, James, in the past, and the Buffalo Bills could use added experience after losing Damien Harris this offseason. The elder Cook could slot in as the No. 3 behind his sibling and rookie fourth-rounder Ray Davis.”
Xavien Howard to the Bengals. “While he doesn’t necessarily offer the speed or steadiness of a lockdown cover man going on 31, the four-time Pro Bowler has experience (99 career starts) and ball skills (29 career interceptions) that could be appealing to a Cincinnati Bengals secondary, which is set to lean on young converted safety DJ Turner on the boundary.”

Cody played matchmaker with several other free agents, and if you want to see his full list, you can do that here.

3. Ranking the top 10 rookie matchups on the 2024 NFL schedule

Before we get to the next part of the newsletter, you might want to go grab a calendar, because we have a few dates you’re probably going to want to circle. There are a lot of huge rookie matchups on the schedule this year, so Josh Edwards decided to go through the entire schedule to find the best ones.

Let’s take a look at the top-five rookie showdowns that will be happening in 2024 (One thing you’ll notice below is that pretty much every matchup involving Caleb Williams against another rookie QB made the list):

1. Week 8 (Bears at Commanders): Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels

2. Week 12 and Week 15 (Bears-Vikings): Caleb Williams vs. J.J. McCarthy

3. Week 10 (Patriots at Bears): Caleb Williams vs. Drake Maye

4. Week 3 (Lions at Cardinals): Terrion Arnold vs. Marvin Harrison, Jr.

5. Week 6 and Week 16 (Colts-Titans): Laiatu Latu vs. JC Latham

If you want to see Josh’s full top-10 ranking, you can check it out here.

4. DeVante Parker abruptly retires after nine NFL seasons

The Philadelphia Eagles got a surprise on Monday with the retirement of DeVante Parker. The decision by Parker comes less than two months after he had signed a one-year deal with Philly.

Here’s what you need to know:

Parker decided that he wants to spend more time with his family. The 31-year-old has a wife and four children, and after announcing his retirement, he admitted that his family played a big part in his decision “I want to see my kids, spend quality time with them,” Parker told ESPN. “I want to be there for them whenever I can.”
Parker was a former first-round pick. The receiver’s career started in 2015 when the Dolphins selected him with the 14th overall pick in the NFL Draft. After announcing his retirement, Parker gave Miami a shoutout: “I appreciate the Dolphins for drafting me and giving me the opportunity. I always will have love for the Dolphins and their organization,” Parker said.
Parker played with 11 different starting quarterbacks over nine seasons. Parker’s best season came in 2019 when he ranked fifth in the NFL with 1,202 receiving yards. That was the only season in his career where he topped 800 yards. Although he never lived up to the hype of being a first-round pick, it’s not completely his fault. He had to play with eight different starting quarterbacks during his seven seasons with the Dolphins, including Ryan Tannehill, Jay Cutler, Matt Moore, Brock Osweiler, Jacoby Brissett, Josh Rosen and Tua Tagovailoa (Parker was only around for Tua’s rookie year). He also played two seasons with the Patriots where his quarterbacks were Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe and Brian Hoyer.

After spending the first seven seasons of his career in Miami (2015-21), Parker moved on to New England in 2022 and ended up spending two years with the Patriots. After hitting free agency in March, Parker signed with the Eagles, but it doesn’t look like he’ll ever end up playing a down for Philly.

Parker will end his career with 369 catches for 5,266 yards and 27 touchdowns. You can read more about his career here.

5. NFL on the move: Jaguars might have to briefly leave Jacksonville; NFL eyeing Australia

The NFL could have a very different look in the near future, and that’s because two big things are on the table. First, the Jaguars could be leaving Jacksonville for at least one season starting in 2026 or 2027. Also, the NFL is apparently looking at the possibility of putting a game in Australia.

Here are the details on each situation:

Why the Jaguars will likely have to leave Jacksonville for at least one season. The Jaguars’ home stadium will be undergoing a $1.4 billion makeover in the near future and once those renovations start, the Jags are likely going to have find a new temporary home.
Jaguars eyeing two cities as a temporary home. The Jaguars’ current home, EverBank Stadium, is expected to play with a reduced capacity in 2026. By 2027, the Jags will have to move so that the renovation can be finished. Jaguars president Mark Lamping revealed this week that the franchise will play its home games in either Orlando or Gainesville in 2027. You can read more about the situation here. If they move to Orlando, you’ll be able to squeeze in a trip to Disney World on Saturday before taking in a Jags’ game on Sunday.
NFL eyeing Australia. The NFL will be playing in a new country this year (Brazil), a new country next year (Spain), and it looks we could soon see a game in Australia. According to 9News in Melbourne, the NFL is considering the possibility of scheduling a regular-season game in Australia, and it could happen as soon as the 2025 season or as late as the 2026 season.
Details on the possible game. According to the report, the Rams would be in the driver’s seat to serve as the home team in the game, which makes sense, because they currently have sole international marketing rights to the country. Also, Melbourne seems to be the front-runner right now to host the game.

If you’re wondering how the logistics of a game in Australia would work, it’s complicated, but it’s definitely doable. There’s a 14-hour time difference between Melbourne/Sydney and the Eastern Time Zone in the United States, which isn’t ideal, but the NFL could certainly work around it. If the game kicked off at noon on Monday in Melbourne or Sydney, that would be a 9 p.m. ET Sunday night kickoff in the United States.

You can read more about the possible Australia game here.

6. Extra points: Wide receiver drama around the NFL as OTAs start

It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

Justin Jefferson skips start of OTAs. The Vikings receiver, who’s headed into the final year of his rookie deal, is looking to get a hefty extension, and since he hasn’t gotten that yet, it appears that he’s planning to skip OTAs. Jefferson skipped out on Monday’s session and right now, it’s not clear if he’s planning to attend any of the voluntary workouts.
CeeDee Lamb not expected to attend Cowboys’ OTAs. Like Jefferson, Lamb is also headed into the final year of his rookie deal, and like Jefferson, it looks like Lamb is also planning to skip OTAs unless he gets a new deal. You can read more about Lamb’s situation here.
Tee Higgins not expected to attend Bengals OTAs. The Bengals receiver still hasn’t signed his $21.87 million franchise tag, and that’s not expected to happen before next week, which means Higgins likely won’t be attending OTAs. If Higgins doesn’t sign his franchise tag, that means he could skip training camp without getting hit with any fines, so he essentially has no incentive to sign it before August.
Rashee Rice at Chiefs’ OTAs. Although he’s currently facing a multitude of legal issues, the second-year receiver is attending Chiefs’ OTAs. Rice reported to the team on Monday and is expected to be there for the duration of Kansas City’s OTAs. Rice did get one piece of good news on Monday night when a photographer decided to drop the assault charges that he had filed against the Chiefs’ receiver, according to NFL.com.
Patriots starter could miss the first few weeks of the season. Cole Strange missed the final three games of 2023 with a knee injury, and it looks like that same injury could cause the Patriots’ starting guard to miss the beginning of the 2024 season. According to NFL.com, Strange is expected to miss the start of the season and could be out until the middle of the season. You can read more about the situation here.
NFL head coach compared to Will Ferrell. In what is easily the most bizarre comparison of the year, Chargers linebacker Denzel Perryman says that Jim Harbaugh reminds him of Will Ferrell. “I hope I don’t get in trouble for this, but he reminds me of Will Ferrell,” Perryman said Monday. “I don’t know if it’s the way that he speaks, his analogies and everything, but they really remind me of Will Ferrell.” You can read more about that amazing comparison here.