2024 NFL Draft: Here’s how sportsbooks see the top of the draft unfolding weeks before the event

The 2024 NFL Draft is now less than three weeks away, and there are plenty of questions we all are wondering. How many quarterbacks will go in the top five, and who could be aggressive enough to trade up for one? Is it possible NFL teams aren’t as high on this quarterback class as some appear to be? Who will be the first wide receiver drafted?

The NFL Draft has also evolved into a gambling event, as sportsbooks release odds for the player who will go No. 1 overall, the player who will go first among those who play his position, and even positional props for certain teams. At this point, Vegas has odds for the first players off the board, so let’s explore how Caesars Sportsbook specifically sees the first seven picks playing out. Remember, it doesn’t matter which team selects the player, but where they go in terms of No. 1 overall, No. 2, No. 3, etc. 

1. Caleb Williams, QB, USC (-10000)

Other odds: Jayden Daniels (+2500), Drake Maye (+3000), Marvin Harrison Jr. (+6000)

The pick everyone is expecting by now. The Chicago Bears traded away Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers earlier this offseason, and will hold onto the top pick this time around. Williams is considered the best quarterback in this class, and he recorded the most passing yards (8,170), total yards (8,673) and scored the most total touchdowns (93) in a two-year span in USC history. 

2. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU (-200)

Other odds: Drake Maye (+150), J.J. McCarthy (+475), Marvin Harrison Jr. (+3500), Caleb Williams (+3500)

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner has appeared to have surpassed Drake Maye as the favorite to go No. 2 overall. His 2023 campaign was one for the books, as he recorded the highest passer efficiency rating (208.0) in a season in FBS history, and led the FBS in total yards per game (412.2) and total touchdowns per game (4.2). Daniels is a dual-threat weapon who led the FBS in not only yards per attempt (11.7), but also yards per rush (8.4). Is he the better fit for Kliff Kingsbury’s offense? That’s what the Washington Commanders will have to decide if they hold onto this pick. 

3. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina (-120)

Other odds: Jayden Daniels (-110), J.J. McCarthy (+375), Marvin Harrison Jr. (+450)

Vegas sees three quarterbacks coming off the board to begin the draft, but it remains to be seen if the draft order will remain the same at the top. Maye was the only FBS player to record 7,000-plus passing yards and 1,000-plus rushing yards over the past two seasons, and was the 2022 ACC Player of the Year. He recorded the third-most total yards (9,076) in a two-year span in ACC history behind Deshaun Watson (2015-16) and Lamar Jackson (2016-17).

For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on “With the First Pick” — our year-round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find “With the First Pick” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc. Listen below!

4. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (-200)

Other odds: J.J. McCarthy (+150), Drake Maye (+900), Malik Nabers (+1200), Jayden Daniels (+1200)

The Arizona Cardinals currently reside at No. 4 overall, and while they could trade down, general manager Monti Ossenfort could also take the first non-QB in the draft. Arizona needs to upgrade its wide receiver room, so the Cards could take the best wideout in this class. By the way, look at Harrison’s odds to go No. 4 compared to Malik Nabers’.

Harrison is a two-time Unanimous All-American who recorded the most receiving yards (2,474) and receiving touchdowns (28) in a two-year span in Ohio State history. He’s the only player in Big Ten history to catch 14 touchdowns in multiple seasons. 

5. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (+200)

Other odds: Marvin Harrison Jr. (+200), J.J. McCarthy (+250), Joe Alt (+500)

As you see, Nabers and Harrison actually have the same odds to go No. 5 overall, but Harrison is also the favorite at No. 4, so let’s talk about Nabers. The LSU product caught 89 passes for 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns in 13 games played last season. Those 1,569 receiving yards ranked sixth-most in SEC history. Nabers also recorded the most receptions (189) and receiving yards (3,003) in LSU history. Some believe he’s the best wideout in this class. 

6. Undecided

Odds: Malik Nabers (+140), Rome Odunze (+400), J.J. McCarthy (+500), Joe Alt (+750), Marvin Harrison Jr. (+800)

Vegas isn’t exactly sure who will go No. 6 overall, but Caesars clearly believes Nabers is slated to go at No. 5 or No. 6. The New York Giants are currently sitting at No. 6, and they could be in the market for a receiver or a quarterback. 

Some believe the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 5 overall are the first trade-down team to watch. But do quarterback-needy teams really view McCarthy as a top-five pick? If they do, it makes sense why Nabers would be considered the favorite here. 

7. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame (-130)

Other odds: Olu Fashanu (+700), Taliese Fuaga (+700), Rome Odunze (+700), Malik Nabers (+1200)

Alt is considered by many to be the top offensive tackle in this class, and the Tennessee Titans at No. 7 certainly need one. Apart from Caleb Williams to the Bears at No. 1 overall, Alt to the Titans at No. 7 overall has to be one of the more popular mock selections. The All-American left tackle has great size at 6-foot-9 and 321 pounds, and he registered the highest overall PFF grade by an FBS offensive lineman last season with a 90.7. 

The Titans could take the first offensive lineman in the draft, but you can never rule out a trade down.