2024 NFL Draft: Changes to the QB market, veterans getting traded and other unexpected scenarios

When projecting what could occur during the 2024 NFL Draft, analysts often explore the likely outcomes, but the long shots should be acknowledged just to explore all possibilities. 

Here are some specific scenarios that are considered unexpected:

New England passes on a quarterback in the first round

At this point in time, most fans expect the Patriots to use the No. 3 overall selection on the quarterback position. However, what if New England has been leveraging its position for better trade offers after attending pro days and going through the process of gathering information on top quarterback prospects? The franchise has several holes to fill and additional draft assets would go a long way toward sustainable success. 

The organization signed a competent starting quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, in free agency. It is not a Chicago or Washington situation where a viable starter is not already on the roster. If New England were to trade out of the pick, it would not impact the draft much in the grand scheme of things because the No. 3 overall selection would still be used on a quarterback.

The Bengals have been pretty adamant that they do not intend to move on from Tee Higgins. Perhaps they consider that option at the trade deadline if the season does not develop as hoped. Brandon Aiyuk has voiced his displeasure regarding his lack of a contract extension but the franchise has already invested a lot into Deebo Samuel. Could they trade one of those two players to a team like Jacksonville, who lost out on signing Calvin Ridley? 

It has only been a few years since the league was caught off-guard by A.J. Brown and Hollywood Brown being traded on draft night. It was thought that could be the beginning of teams expressing their unwillingness to spend big money on the position, but few have blinked when faced with that choice in recent years. The rate of pay for premium wide receivers continues to rise. 

Minnesota is not the team moving up for a quarterback

Everyone assumes that it will be Minnesota moving up to draft a quarterback after the franchise’s strategic move to acquire a second selection in the first round. The Vikings can now offer two first-round picks this year as any trade-up package; no other team, except Arizona, could match. What if the Giants, Raiders or Broncos are the team that makes the aggressive move up the board? Denver may not have the resources to make such a move, but the possibility exists. If it were a foregone conclusion that the Broncos or Raiders were not trading up, would Minnesota need to trade up or are the Giants that big of a threat?

Four quarterbacks taken in the top five overall would be the first time in league history. 

Five quarterbacks taken in the first round

There has been a lot of smoke about five quarterbacks getting into the first round but the talent is not necessarily there to justify that action. A team may value receiving the fifth-year option on a quarterback rather than waiting to make its selection on Day 2. The most likely scenario for this to come to fruition involves four quarterbacks being taken in the top 10 overall and then Denver, Las Vegas or another team trading back in the round to pick up additional draft capital while landing the next best quarterback; likely Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. or Oregon’s Bo Nix. 

A team could also try to trade back into the bottom of Round 1 like Tennessee attempted to do a year ago with Will Levis. However, the draft position of the most likely culprits — New Orleans and Las Vegas — makes that less likely given their residence in the middle of the draft order. 

The last time five quarterbacks were taken in the first round was 2018 when Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, USC’s Sam Darnold, Wyoming’s Josh Allen, UCLA’s Josh Rosen and Louisville’s Lamar Jackson heard their names called on the first night.

The 2024 NFL Draft will take place from April 25-27 in Detroit. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly updated draft order, mock drafts and a regularly available look at the eligible prospects.