The San Francisco 49ers last appeared in the Super Bowl four years ago, losing to the Kansas City Chiefs by a 31-20 margin. On Sunday in Las Vegas, the 49ers will again try to hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the first time since the 1994 season, but standing in their way will be the Chiefs. San Francisco won the NFC with playoff wins over the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions to earn an eighth Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. Kansas City is in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years and can secure back-to-back titles with a win over the 49ers at Allegiant Stadium.
Kickoff is at 6:30 p.m. ET in Las Vegas on CBS and Paramount+. San Francisco is a two-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. 49ers odds. Before locking in any 49ers vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2024 NFL Super Bowl on an incredible 184-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It also is on a 38-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Niners vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl 58. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Niners:
- Chiefs vs. 49ers spread: 49ers -2
- Chiefs vs. 49ers over/under: 47.5 points
- Chiefs vs. 49ers money line: 49ers -127, Chiefs +107
- SF: 49ers are 9-10 against the spread this season
- KC: Chiefs are 12-7-1 against the spread this season
- Chiefs vs. 49ers picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Chiefs vs. 49ers streaming: Paramount+ (try free for seven days)
Why the 49ers can cover
On defense, San Francisco’s havoc creation is elite, including a league-best 22 interceptions and 15.5% defensive turnover rate. That led to 28 takeaways in 17 regular season games and the 49ers also ranked firmly in the top eight in total yards allowed (303.9 per game), rushing yards allowed (89.7 per game), yards allowed per pass attempt (6.4), and sacks (48).
On offense, the 49ers keep pressure on opponents with balance, becoming the first NFL team since 2004 with a 4,000-yard passer and four players with at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage. San Francisco led the NFL in yards per play (6.6), yards per drive (37.8), red zone efficiency (67.2%), and points per drive (2.70) this season. The 49ers erupted for 34 points and 413 total yards against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game and had only 18 giveaways in 17 regular season games. That goes along with top-four marks in passing yards (257.9 per game) and rushing yards (140.5 per game), as well as the most rushing touchdowns (27) in the NFL. See which team to pick here.
Why the Chiefs can cover
The Chiefs have a strong pass defense which matches up well against Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and San Francisco’s potent passing game. Kansas City ranked in the top five of the NFL in passing yards allowed (176.5 per game) during the regular season and was also in the top five in yards allowed per attempt (6.0) and passing touchdowns allowed (19). The Chiefs have also been lights-out in the 2024 NFL playoffs, yielding only 5.7 yards per pass attempt and a 57.4% completion rate.
Kansas City has six sacks in three playoff games, which comes after the Chiefs finished No. 2 with 57 sacks in a 17-game regular season. No team has a higher sack rate (8.6%) than Kansas City, including playoffs, and five-time All-Pro Chris Jones generates consistent havoc at the defensive tackle position. He was No. 2 among defensive tackles in the NFL in sacks (10.5), quarterback hits (33), and quarterback pressures (75) during the 2023 season, even while missing a game. Jones also leads all defensive tackles in tackles for loss (38), sacks (35), and quarterback pressures (217) over the last three seasons combined. See which team to pick here.
How to make Chiefs vs. 49ers picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under the total, calling for 45 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.
So who wins 49ers vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl 58, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the 49ers vs. Chiefs spread to pick in the 2024 Super Bowl, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
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Author: CBS Sports Staff
February 11, 2024 | 10:51 am
