After two weeks of buildup and anticipation, Super Bowl 58 will arrive on Sunday, Feb. 11 in Las Vegas. The NFL will crown a champion at Allegiant Stadium, with the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs battling for history. San Francisco operated as the best team in the NFC this season, knocking off the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl for the eighth time in franchise history. Kansas City won three playoff games, including two road wins, to reach the Super Bowl for the fourth time in a five-year span. The Chiefs are also seeking back-to-back titles, with the 49ers looking to break a two-decade drought without a Lombardi Trophy.
Kickoff is at 6:30 p.m. ET in Las Vegas on CBS and Paramount+. San Francisco is a two-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. 49ers odds. Before locking in any 49ers vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2024 NFL Super Bowl on an incredible 184-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It also is on a 38-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Niners vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl 58. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Niners:
- Chiefs vs. 49ers spread: 49ers -2
- Chiefs vs. 49ers over/under: 47.5 points
- Chiefs vs. 49ers money line: 49ers -129, Chiefs +109
- SF: 49ers are 9-10 against the spread this season
- KC: Chiefs are 12-7-1 against the spread this season
- Chiefs vs. 49ers picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Chiefs vs. 49ers streaming: Paramount+ (try free for seven days)
Why the 49ers can cover
San Francisco outscored opponents by 10.9 points per game during the regular season and has the best running back in the NFL. Christian McCaffrey led the league with 2,023 yards from scrimmage this season and has 14 games with at least 100 yards. McCaffrey also led the NFL with 1,459 rushing yards, beating the No. 2 player in the league by more than 250 yards. McCaffrey is hyper-efficient, leading running backs with 5.4 yards per carry, and led the league with 21 total touchdowns during the regular season. He is the first player to generate at least 25 touchdowns, including the playoffs, since 2006, and has scored a touchdown in five consecutive playoff games.
In his postseason career, McCaffrey is averaging 112.7 yards from scrimmage per game with eight touchdowns in six outings. He has 260 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns in the 2024 NFL playoffs. McCaffrey is a clear fulcrum for an offense that put up 34 points and 413 total yards in the NFC Championship Game. San Francisco also finished in the top three of the NFL in points per game, points per drive, scoring percentage, yards per play, total yards per game, yards per drive, and red zone efficiency this season. See which team to pick here.
Why the Chiefs can cover
The 49ers are allowing 26.0 points per game in the postseason and opponents are generating 159.0 rushing yards per game against San Francisco. That is the most rushing yards allowed per game by a team reaching the Super Bowl since 1966, and the 49ers are yielding 5.6 yards per carry in the 2024 NFL playoffs. San Francisco also has only seven sacks in the last five games combined, and on the other side, Kansas City is dominating on defense. The Chiefs held the Baltimore Ravens to 10 points in the AFC Championship Game. The Ravens also entered that matchup with the NFL’s No. 1 rushing offense before producing only 81 yards on the ground and committing three turnovers.
Kansas City is allowing only 13.7 points per game in three playoff matchups and giving up only 322.0 total yards per game, 5.0 yards per play, and a 30% third down conversion rate. The Chiefs were also stout on defense during the regular season, allowing only 17.3 points per game and 1.50 points per drive. See which team to pick here.
How to make Chiefs vs. 49ers picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under the total, calling for 45 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.
So who wins 49ers vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl 58, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the 49ers vs. Chiefs spread to pick in the 2024 Super Bowl, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
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Author: CBS Sports Staff
February 4, 2024 | 10:30 am
