Welcome to the second-to-last week of the 2023 NFL regular season. It flew by, didn’t it? All eyes are on the playoff picture. Can the Houston Texans rebound with C.J. Stroud back under center? Will the Indianapolis Colts get back to their winning ways at home and hold onto their playoff spot? Can the Tampa Bay Buccaneers stay on top of the NFC South? There are plenty of storylines to break down.
As we do every week, we’ve collected all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more. Ready? Let’s jump in.
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 17? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Eagles -9.5, O/U 48
“You’d think that this would be the perfect get-right spot for the Eagles. They’re home at Lincoln Financial Field for the second straight week and are taking on a Cardinals team that was just in Chicago, flew back to Arizona, and now has to fly back across the country to Philly for this game. From a travel standpoint, it’s a bad spot for the Cardinals, but I think Philly continues to leave the backdoor wide open as it has done throughout the year and just as it did last week against the Giants with a late 70-yard touchdown. Kyle Murray’s offense is averaging 8.7 fourth-quarter points over the last three weeks (fifth best in the NFL) and the Eagles are allowing 7.6 fourth-quarter points on the season as a whole (28th). Philly wins this game, but Arizona makes it a bit spicy down the stretch.”
Tyler Sullivan likes the Cardinals to cover the number in Philly this week. To check out his best bets for Week 17, click here.
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Bears -3, O/U 37
“The Bears have come alive in recent weeks, serving notice they are a team to watch for next season. The Falcons are still alive in the playoff chase. This will be a tough task, though, against a team playing loose. Look for Justin Fields to outplay Taylor Heinicke to win it.”
CBS Senior Writer Pete Prisco likes the Bears to cover the number vs. the Falcons this week. To read Prisco’s breakdown of every game in Week 17, click here.
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Jaguars -8, O/U 39.5
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Larry Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Those selections form the basis of his weekly SportsLine NFL best bets, which are 68-41-2 since the start of last season, including a 13-2 record the last five weeks.
Now, Hartstein has locked in three confident Week 17 NFL best bets, including taking the Panthers to cover against the Jaguars. If you successfully parlay his picks, you’re looking at a payout of almost 6-1. To check out his other top picks this week, head on over to SportsLine.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Rams -6.5, O/U 42
“The Rams are for real and we’ll keep riding them here. This is not some dome-dwelling West Coast finesse team. The Rams went to Baltimore for an early start in the rain and carved them up from the first drive through the end of regulation. They can run the ball on anyone and will keep running it. They have too many in-form receivers to cover and the defense will take Saquon Barkley away. Los Angeles is on extra rest and didn’t have to play or practice on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. Sean McVay will have his team ready to play. Matthew Stafford is a top-five quarterback right now. The Rams have been a top-three rushing team since their bye, while the Giants are allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season, the second-worst mark in the NFL. The physical Rams offensive line will grind them down.”
SportsLine expert Jason La Canfora likes the Rams to out-physical the Giants this week. To view his other best bets for Week 17, head on over to SportsLine.
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Colts -3.5, O/U 43.5
“The Raiders are out on the road for a second straight week with slight playoff chances in play. The Colts need this for their playoff hopes. The Raiders defense is playing at a high level as we saw against the Chiefs Monday. I think that will continue here against Gardner Minshew as they pull off the upset.”
CBS Sports Senior Writer Pete Prisco is taking the underdog to win this matchup straight up. To read his breakdown of every game this week, click here.
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Ravens -3, O/U 46.5
Before placing your Week 17 NFL bets and NFL parlays, you need to see what the SportsLine projection Model has to say. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 178-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 32-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
Now, it has simulated every snap of Week 17, and has revealed its best parlay picks. The five-team parlay could lead to a huge 25-1 payout! The Ravens covering the spread against the Dolphins is one of its top picks, but to check out the other parlay legs, head on over to SportsLine.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Bills -12, O/U 40
“I will not be taking my chances with Bill Belichick and the Pats going on the road against a very hungry Bills team thinking about the playoffs. Buffalo is coming off a close win against the Chargers but it was a tough spot — L.A. just fired its coach, the Chargers were on a mini-bye, the Bills were traveling across the country. Now the Bills are home, get to play a HATED division rival and can potentially clinch a playoff berth (there are like 14 different scenarios including ties, but five legit scenarios for Buffalo to clinch with a win). Sean McDermott’s team is undefeated since a controversy-filled bye week and the Bills would love to put the final nail in Belichick’s proverbial coffin here. McDermott and the Bills have shown a proclivity for running up the score against the Pats and other division rivals late in the season and I wouldn’t be surprised if they did so here.”
CBS Sports Senior Writer Will Brinson likes the Bills to cover the large number this week. To read his other best bets for Week 17, click here.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Buccaneers -2.5, O/U 42
“There were some 2.5s in the market early in the week but this game is currently sitting at Buccaneers -3. I think it could come off that number again, as I expect the market to be in on the Saints here. I’m willing to throw them in a teaser if they’re 2.5 as the Buccaneers defense didn’t actually play as well as the final score suggests last week, benefiting from a number of turnovers that I don’t think they can count on in this matchup. Derek Carr’s play has improved now that he looks closer to 100%, and the Saints had their first game with more than 300 net passing yards since Week 8 in the loss to the Rams. I’m considering playing the Saints at +3, and if I miss that opportunity, I’m more than happy teasing them here.”
SportsLine NFL expert R.J. White suggests teasing the Saints up this week. To check out his other teaser legs for Week 17, head on over to SportsLine.
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: 49ers -13.5, O/U 48.5
“The Washington offense has been night and day the last two weeks when Jacoby Brissett replaces Sam Howell. You can draw your own conclusions about a Wolfpacker vs. a Tar Heel, but there’s a clear difference in the experience level of the two quarterbacks. Howell is the future in Ron Rivera’s eyes, but Rivera isn’t even the future, so whatever he says about the quarterback situation is largely irrelevant. Howell needs “a break” and that’s fair, he’s been beat down badly. Brissett has engineered five straight TD drives for Washington and nearly stormed back to beat a good Jets defense. The 49ers will be angry but Washington should be able to stay within two touchdowns of the explosive San Francisco offense looking to remind everyone why it’s so good.”
That’s CBS Sports Senior Writer Will Brinson on why he’s got the Commanders covering a monster spread. To read his other best bets for Week 17, click here.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Texans -4.5, O/U 43
“The Titans might have Will Levis back for this one, while the Texans will have C.J. Stroud back as well. That would pit the two rookie quarterbacks against each other for the first time. The Texans beat the Titans two weeks ago with Case Keenum at quarterback. It was tight. This will be as well, no matter who plays quarterback for the Titans.”
CBS Sports Senior Writer Pete Prisco is taking the Titans to cover the spread in their rematch with the Texans. To read his breakdown of every game this week, click here.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks
Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Seahawks -3.5, O/U 40.5
“I’m not going to say the Steelers have a QB controversy brewing, but the Steelers might have a QB controversy brewing. Mason Rudolph has only played in one game this season and he already looks like the best QB on the roster. In the Steelers’ win over the Bengals last week, Rudolph finished with a QB rating of 124, which I’m only noting because it means that he now has as many games with a 100 rating over the past six days as Kenny Pickett does in his entire career.
“Mike Tomlin knows he CANNOT send Rudolph back to the bench after the way he played in Week 16, so I’m guessing we’ll be seeing Rudolph once again this week.
“Although the Steelers looked good against the Bengals in Week 16, I’m not sure that actually means anything and that’s mostly because the Bengals are the ONLY team this season that has managed to make the Steelers offense look like the second coming of the Greatest Show on Turf. Through 15 games, the Steelers have only topped 340 yards twice and both of those came against the Bengals. If the Steelers were playing the Bengals this week, I’d love their chances, but they’re not.
“If you take those two Bengals games out, the Steelers have struggled to run the ball and they’ve struggled to pass the ball and it’s hard to win in the NFL when you can’t do either of those things. The Seahawks are 7-3 this season when they hold their opponent under 400 yards and based on what I’ve seen from the Steelers offense this year, I have to think the Seahawks can hold them to under 400 yards. Also, the Steelers offense has been especially bad on the road this year, averaging just 15.8 points per game, which is a big reason why they’re 3-3 away from Pittsburgh.
“One other thing about this game is that it’s being played in Seattle, which is a notoriously tough place to play for AFC teams. It’s already one of the toughest place to plays in the NFL and when you only play there once every eight years, it gets even tougher, which is a big reason why the Seahawks are 16-4 in their past 20 homes games against AFC teams.
“I think we can all see where I’m going with this pick.”
John Breech likes the Seahawks to cover the spread this week. To read his Week 17 column, click here.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Chiefs -3.5, O/U 50.5
“The Chiefs fell to the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas in what was one of the biggest upsets of the season. The offense looks bad, as Patrick Mahomes is averaging a career low in passing yards per game (262.5) and yards per attempt (6.9) this season. However, after that loss to the Raiders, the Chiefs should be MAD. Plus, the Bengals are a legitimate rival.
“Mahomes has three career losses to the Bengals, including playoffs. That’s tied for the most losses he’s taken against a single opponent. Joe Burrow isn’t playing, so the Chiefs still should have the advantage.
“The Bengals are allowing a whopping 6.1 yards per play this season, which ranks most in the NFL. They just allowed a quarterback who hadn’t made a start since 2021 to register one of the best QB performances for the Pittsburgh Steelers in years (first Steelers quarterback to throw for 250 yards and two touchdowns since Ben Roethlisberger in 2021). Give me Kansas City at home.”
Jordan Dajani likes the Chiefs to bounce back vs. an AFC rival. To read his Week 17 column, click here.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Broncos -6.5, O/U 37.5
“Russell Wilson has been benched following a bad loss at home to the New England Patriots. This move has much to do with injury guarantees in his contract, but I do believe it has to do with his on-field performance as well. Box-score watchers will claim Wilson has been a “good” quarterback this year, but when you watch the Broncos, the offense looks bad. The play-calling seems off, and I question how much faith Sean Payton has/had in Wilson. Now enter Jarrett Stidham, who may be a quarterback Payton has more confidence in.
“It’s deja vu, as Stidham has been promoted to starter the week after Christmas for a quarterback benched because of injury guarantees in his contract. Last year for the Raiders, Stidham stepped in against the loaded San Francisco 49ers and threw for 365 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in a three-point loss. Payton is looking for a “spark,” and I’m going to bet Stidham provides it. I don’t want to gloss over the performance Easton Stick and the Chargers had last week against the Buffalo Bills, but I’ll still take Denver here at home.”
Jordan Dajani likes the Broncos to win this week with their new quarterback. To read his Week 17 column, click here.
R.J. White has delivered a 56.5% hit rate on his Vegas contest picks over the last eight seasons, and that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017. This week R.J.’s backing the Chargers as one of his five contest picks: “It’s hard to have faith in this Chargers offense with both Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer ruled out, but that should mean a clear focus on running the ball, where the Broncos are absolutely awful. Not only do they have the worst rush defense in the league, but it’s about half a yard worse per carry than any other unit. … I’m not worried the Chargers will have to abandon the run by getting down big. One reason is that their defense seemed to play better without Brandon Staley leading the show last week. But the bigger reason is that this Broncos offense has major issues for this game.”
You can read more about that pick and all of R.J.’s Week 17 contest picks right here.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Vikings -2, O/U 43.5
Before you make any Packers vs. Vikings picks of your own, you need to see what NFL expert R.J. White has to say, given his mastery of picks in games involving the Packers. White, a Fantasy and gambling editor for CBS Sports, consistently crushes against-the-spread picks and went 535-450-30 on his ATS picks from 2017-22, which returned more than $3,500 to $100 players. He also closed the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 107-80-6 run on his last 193 against-the-spread and total NFL picks, returning more than $1,800 for $100 bettors.
Most importantly, White has a read on the pulse of the Packers. He is 65-26-2 (+3472) on his last 93 against-the-spread picks in games involving Green Bay. We can tell you he’s leaning Under the total, but to check out his official pick for “Sunday Night Football,” head on over to SportsLine.
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Author: Jordan Dajani
December 30, 2023 | 11:40 pm
