Patriots vs. Broncos: Time, live stream, odds, keys to game, pick for prime-time Christmas Eve showdown

The Christmas Eve slate wraps up in Denver where the Broncos will host the Patriots in prime time Sunday night. 

Sean Payton’s team is still clinging to playoff hopes coming into this matchup at 7-7 on the year. Currently, Denver is the No. 11 seed in the conference, but just a game back of the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds in the loss column. The Broncos will need to win out to give themselves their best shot at ultimately creeping into the wild-card picture, and that does seem pretty realistic as each of their final three opponents are under .500. 

The Broncos are coming off a 42-17 loss at the hands of the Detroit Lions, which put a significant dent in their postseason dreams. That said, Russell Wilson and Co. are looking to become just the fifth team in NFL history to make the playoffs after a 1-5 start (6-2 since). 

As for the Patriots, they’ve already been eliminated from playoff contention and are in the midst of the worst season ever under Bill Belichick at 3-11. In fact, it’s the worst 14-game start to a season in Robert Kraft’s ownership. While it hasn’t been pretty for New England, the offense has looked a bit more respectable in recent weeks with Bailey Zappe starting over Mac Jones. 

While this is the typical window for “Sunday Night Football” on NBC, it’s important to point out that this game will air on NFL Network as part of the altered broadcasting lineup throughout the holiday weekend. Which one of these teams will ultimately come out on top? We’ll soon find out. As we await kickoff, let’s break down this head-to-head AFC showdown. 

How to watch 

Date: Sunday, Dec. 24 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver, Colorado)
TV: NFL Network | Stream: fubo (try for free) 
Follow: CBS Sports App   
Odds: Broncos -7; O/U 35 (via SportsLine consensus odds)

When the Patriots have the ball

The Patriots gave the keys to the offense to Bailey Zappe back in Week 12, and there’s been some sparks from the offense in recent games. That said, consistency is what’s still lacking, and they still come into this week as the lowest-scoring team in the league (13.3). In the past two games, New England has enjoyed solid starts on offense, averaging 15.5 points per game in the first half. That hasn’t translated over into the second half during which it’s managed just seven total points over that same stretch. Last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, Zappe completed 17 of his 19 first-half passes for 141 yards and a touchdown while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt. In the second half, he completed 50% of his throws for 39 yards and an interception to go along with a 3.3 yards per attempt average. There is some room for optimism of a full four-quarter effort by Zappe and the offense this week, however, as the Broncos are tied for the fourth-most second-half points allowed (13.1) in the NFL this season. 

What will be worth watching is the status of arguably the top pass-catching option within this unit, Hunter Henry. He is officially listed as questionable for this game due to a knee injury he suffered last week. Henry is tied for the second-most receiving touchdowns (six) by a tight end this season and has been the go-to option when New England looks to score. While Henry has six receiving touchdowns, no other Patriot currently on the active roster has more than one receiving touchdown this season. So, if they’re within striking distance of the end zone and in a passing down, Henry is more often than not the target. With Rhamondre Stevenson still missing due to an ankle injury, Ezekiel Elliott will again be leaned on in the running game. Since Week 13, he’s ranked fourth amongst backs in touches (66). He logged a season-low 2.3 yards per carry last week against the Chiefs but has proven to be a capable option as a pass-catcher. He has caught 16 passes since Week 13 for 133 yards, which ranks first among backs.

When the Broncos have the ball

If Russell Wilson is able to stay within the pocket, that’s typically resulted in good things for the Broncos offense. The veteran quarterback is completing 73.5% of his passes inside the pocket this season, which ranks first in the NFL and is the highest completion percentage since Drew Brees in 2019 (also coached by Sean Payton). This is a meteoric rise from Wilson’s 24th-ranked standing within this stat a year ago. You pair Wilson’s improved efficiency within the pocket with his ability to create scoring plays when flushed outside the pocket, and it’s not surprising to see why Denver has made a strong turnaround this year. Wilson is tied with Josh Allen and Brock Purdy for the NFL lead in passing touchdowns from outside the pocket, but unlike those QBs, Wilson has not thrown an interception in that scenario. 

Wilson’s go-to scoring target has continued to be Courtland Sutton, who has a career-high 10 receiving touchdowns this season. He has been particularly reliable in the red zone, where Wilson has targeted him 16 times. The wideout has caught 11 of those targets and turned eight of them into touchdowns. 

They’ll go up against a Patriots defense that has been stout at times this season but hasn’t been as opportunistic as it has been in years past. This season, the team ranks 29th in takeaways and sacks and has not scored a defensive touchdown this season. So long as Wilson can remain efficient and keep the ball out of New England’s hands, they should have a successful day offensively.  

Pick: Broncos 23, Patriots 20