Just three weeks remain in the 2023 regular season and the Week 16 slated is packed with high-profile matchups that’ll certainly shake up the playoff picture. Division titles and playoff spots can be clinched over the course of the holiday weekend, and we’ll cap it off with a potential Super Bowl LVIII preview between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium.
As we do every week, we’ve collected all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more. Ready? Let’s jump in.
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 16? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.
Sunday’s games
Colts at Falcons
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Colts -2, O/U 44.5
“Both of these teams are still alive, but they have a feel of two teams going in opposite directions. The Falcons will start Taylor Heinicke in this one at quarterback. The Colts have been playing well, but I think this is a game where the Falcons will find a way behind Heinicke.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL analyst Pete Prisco on why he has the Falcons beating the Colts, 23-20. To see the rest of his picks, click here.
Seahawks at Titans
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Seahawks -2.5, O/U 42.5
“Titans quarterback Will Levis injured his ankle last week in the loss to the Texans, so his status bears watching. Even so, I think with Levis or Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, the Titans can win this game. Seattle is on a short week, and even with Geno Smith back the Titans will find a way to win this one.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL analyst Pete Prisco has the Titans edging out the Seahawks, 28-24. To see the rest of his picks, click here.
Lions at Vikings
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Lions -3.5, O/U 47
“My column has basically been me picking the Lions to cover, and then they let me down. I wanted to swear off them for good, but I picked them to cover vs. the Denver Broncos last week, so I’m hoping for a Christmas miracle by bumping them up to the top five again. The Lions SHOULD be three points better than Nick Mullens and Co. It just really depends on if this team “shows up.” What do I mean by that? Well, Detroit could have one of the best offenses in the league with Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta etc. If they take care of the ball, Detroit wins this game. I’m not high on the Lions defense, but can the Vikings really outscore an offense that’s top five in scoring?” — CBS Sports NFL writer Jordan Dajani on why he likes the Lions to clear the three-point spread against the Vikings. To see his other picks for Week 16, click here.
Commanders at Jets
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Jets -3, O/U 38
“I think the Jets are on the verge of caving in on themselves (if they haven’t done so already). The team was just shut out in Miami, eliminated from playoff contention and now Aaron Rodgers has essentially confirmed he won’t come back this year. That’s about as deflating of a stretch as you can imagine, which begs the question of how much juice you’re going to get from the rest of the roster. Meanwhile, the motivation for the Commanders — also eliminated from the playoffs — is a bit more clear as Ron Rivera continues to coach for his job and Sam Howell — who was benched last week — is still trying to prove that he can be a starter in the NFL. Even if Howell struggles, I expect Rivera to put him on a short leash, which would pave the way for Jacoby Brissett to come in (which I would argue is an improvement). New York is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games and the Commanders have been solid against the AFC, particularly on the road where they’ve covered five straight. I’ll take the field goal and also look for Washington to come out on top here.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan on why he likes the Commanders to cover and win against the Jets. To see all of his Week 16 picks, click here.
Packers at Panthers
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Packers -4, O/U 36.5
Need some help in your Survivor pool? Well, the SportsLine Projection Model is the perfect tool to keep you alive. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 178-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. This week, we can tel you the model is shying away from the Packers, despite Green Bay being road favorites against Carolina. Instead, the model is backing a team that’s dominated its Week 16 opponent in recent meetings. To see what team that is, head on over to SportsLine.
“Carolina is coming off its Super Bowl, beating the Falcons, 9-7, in a driving Charlotte rainstorm filled with wind and zero people watching (technically there were like 5,000 people but whatever). The weather was a gift for Carolina, because it allowed its decent defense to stifle the terrible Falcons offense and keep the game close. Green Bay’s defense isn’t great and I definitely worry about them playing a ton of zone on third-and-short and allowing Adam Thielen to eat the Packers alive over the middle of their soft coverage. But the Packers should be able to score 21-plus points against Carolina’s secondary in a game they absolutely have to win if they want to stay in the hunt for a wild-card berth. Carolina won’t be able to keep up because the offense can’t score. Even if this game is close late, the Packers will pull away and cover in the fourth quarter.” — Pick Six Podcast host Will Brinson on why the Packers will cover against the Panthers. To see his other picks for Week 16, click here.
Browns at Texans
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Texans -2.5, O/U 40
“C.J. Stroud is reportedly expected to miss another game due to his concussion, and while Case Keenum scored an overtime win over the Titans in their Oilers uniforms on Sunday, this Browns squad is a different team. The Titans’ defense isn’t elite, while the Browns allow an average of 261.1 yards per game, which are the fewest since the 2009 New York Jets.
“So, advantage Browns defense. What about the offense? I’m taking Joe Flacco over Keenum. Can he turn the ball over? Sure. But he was called upon to save the Browns season, not play it safe. He has the fifth-most passing yards (939) in a quarterback’s first three games with a team since 1970! I’m not going to pretend like the Browns are dominating opponents, but they are 5-0 in games decided by 3 or fewer points this season. If we are power-ranking NFL teams, the Browns are probably above the Texans on every list. Why not take them with the number under a field goal?” — CBS Sports NFL writer Jordan Dajani on why he is laying the 2.5 points and rolling with the Browns to beat the Texans, 23-17. To see all of his picks, click here.
Jaguars at Buccaneers
Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Jaguars -1, O/U 43
“If there’s any team that wants to cancel Christmas this year, it’s probably the Jaguars and that’s because I’m pretty sure they hate everything about the month of December at his point. When the month started, the Jags were sitting at 8-3 and it looked like they were going to coast to the AFC South title, but then they got punched in the face by December. They’ve played three games this month and they’ve lost all three, which has put them in a precarious position.
“The only upside for the Jags is that all three of their losses came against AFC North teams and they don’t have any AFC North teams left on their schedule. If the Jags played in the AFC North, they’d probably go 2-15 every year, but they play in the AFC South and that’s one division they’ve been able to dominate this year. As a matter of fact, the Jags are 6-1 this season against teams from either the NFC South or the AFC South and guess who they’re playing this week: An NFC South team.
“And it’s not just any NFC South team, it’s the NFC South team that arguably has the worst passing defense in football. Heading into Week 16, the Buccaneers have surrendered an average of 263.9 yards per game through the air this year, which ranks 31st in the NFL. Only the Commanders have been worse, and as we all know, if you are ever mentioned in the same sentence as the Commanders, you’ve already lost.
“Trevor Lawrence has been a turnover machine over the past two weeks with two lost fumbles against the Ravens in Week 15, which came after he threw three picks against the Browns in Week 14. Those are two of the best defenses in the NFL though, and Lawrence definitely won’t be facing a top defense on Sunday. This feels like a get-right game for Lawerence where he throws for at least 300 yards to keep the Jags in command of the AFC South.
“I won’t be surprised if this game turns into a shootout. Baker Mayfield is playing out of his mind right now, but as good as he’s been playing, the Bucs still have not beaten a single team that currently has a winning record, and the Jaguars have a winning record, so I guess I’m taking the Jags. Well, I think I’m taking the Jags. I don’t know for sure, because I don’t know if Lawrence will be playing. The Jags QB is in concussion protocol and if he can’t go, then C.J. Beathard will be the Jags starter and if that’s the case, I probably won’t be picking Jacksonville.” — CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech explains why he is picking the Jaguars to win 27-23 if Trevor Lawrence plays and the Bucs to win 24-17 if he is sidelined. To see the rest of his picks, click here.
Cardinals at Bears
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Bears -4.5, O/U 44.5
“Yes, the Cardinals are not a good football team this year. At 3-11, they’re looking at the NFL Draft board more than the standings, but don’t sleep on them in this spot as they head to Chicago. When Kyler Murray starts, Arizona is 10-3 ATS on the road since 2021. His mobility should help negate what has grown to be a solid pass rush for Chicago with the arrival of Montez Sweat, and he has weapons — like tight end Trey McBride — that should help move the chains and keep this game close. The Bears — 0-3-1 ATS as a favorite since 2021 — also have an affinity for blowing fourth-quarter leads this season, which leaves the backdoor wide open for the Cardinals to cover. This is a field goal game in my estimation, which has me jumping on the points with Arizona.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan on why he likes taking the points with Arizona as they travel to Chicago. To see his other Week 16 picks, click here.
Cowboys at Dolphins
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Dolphins -1.5, O/U 51
“Both of these teams are good, but I haven’t been able to take them seriously as a Super Bowl contender this season because they can’t beat good teams. On the Cowboys‘ end, they’ve played four teams this year that currently have a winning record and they’ve gone 1-3 in those games. HA HA HA. OK, but don’t laugh Dolphins fans, because your team is worse.
“The Dolphins have played three teams this year that are currently above .500 and not only have they gone winless in those games, but they’ve lost by an average of 16.3 points per game. The Dolphins are so bad at beating good teams that the last time they beat a team that entered the game with a winning record came all the way back in October… of 2022. Every other NFL team has at least one win over a team with a winning record in that span (EVEN THE PANTHERS).
“Even though Tyreek Hill didn’t play on Sunday against the Jets, I fully expect him to play this week. I’m not sure what’s on Mike McDaniel’s Christmas list, but I’m guessing that he’d really like Santa to personally make sure that Hill is healthy for this game. I don’t know if Santa has a medical degree or if he’s even licensed to practice in Florida, but if he can fix Hill, that would be nice because a fully healthy Hill will definitely make this a more intriguing game.
“That being said, the Cowboys have a secondary that should be able to keep up with the Dolphins’ speedy receivers. The Cowboys have given up just 176.9 passing yards per game this year, which is the fourth-fewest in the NFL and a big reason for that is because of the play of Stephon Gilmore and DaRon Bland.
“Those two will be getting their biggest test of the season going up against a Dolphins offense that leads the NFL in passing yards this year. I don’t feel like Bland and Gilmore will fully shut down Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but I do think they’ll contain them.
“This game will be giving us a matchup of the two-highest scoring teams in the NFL, so I’m fully expecting a shootout and my understanding is that Santa is a Cowboys fan, so I’m going to have to take Dallas to win.” — CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech on why he has the Cowboys taking down the Dolphins in Miami, 38-31. To see the rest of his Week 16 picks, click here.
Patriots at Broncos
Time: Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET (NFL Network), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Broncos -5.5, O/U 36.5
“The Patriots offense has shown some life in recent weeks. However, it’s only come in the first half. In the past two weeks as Bailey Zappe has ascended to the starting job, New England has averaged 15.5 points in the first half, but has managed just seven total points in the second half over that same stretch. This prime-time Christmas Eve showdown could be a spot where we finally see a full four-quarter effort from the offense as Denver is tied for the fourth-most second-half points allowed (13.1) in the NFL this season. Pair that with a New England defense that continues to be stout, and the Patriots will keep this game within the number. For what it’s worth, Russell Wilson is also 3-9 ATS in his last 12 prime-time games.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan on why he likes New England to cover against Denver. To see all of his Week 16 picks, click here.
Monday’s Christmas Day games
Raiders at Chiefs
Time: Monday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Chiefs -10, O/U 42.5
“The Chiefs got back on track last week against the Patriots and now can push to get the top seed. They beat the Raiders earlier this year on the road, but the Raiders are a better defense now. The Chiefs win it, but it’s close.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst Pete Prisco on why the Chiefs will get past Las Vegas, but only by a field goal. To see all of his Week 16 picks, click here.
Giants at Eagles
Time: Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Eagles -10.5, O/U 43.5
“I don’t care if Jalen Hurts needs a dictionary for the word “commitment,” this is a bounce-back spot for the Eagles. Life has been hard the past three weeks for Philadelphia, no doubt about it. But the Eagles are so much better than this Giants team. New York is 2-6 ATS on the road this season, and just 1-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs. The Eagles have been put on notice, and have a very winnable schedule down the stretch to secure the NFC East. At home, give me Philly to finally get right.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Jordan Dajani has Philadelphia rebounding with a big win over the Giants that clears the double-digit spread. To see the rest of his Week 16 picks, click here.
Ravens at 49ers
Time: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: 49ers -5, O/U 45.5
SportsLine NFL expert Mike Tierney is coming off a strong 2022 NFL season in which he went 68-54-6, returning $815 to $100 players. He is also an amazing 45-18-2 on his past 65 picks involving the Ravens, returning a whopping $2,510! Given that record, you’ll certainly want to see which way he is rolling for this tilt between the Ravens and 49ers. That’s particularly true considering Tierney has found a critical X-factor that has him backing one side of the spread. We can tell you he’s leaning Under the total, but to see his spread pick for this game you’ll have to go to SportsLine.
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Author: Tyler Sullivan
December 23, 2023 | 9:52 pm
