NFL Week 16 early odds: 49ers favored over Ravens in potential Super Bowl preview, Jets favored vs. Commanders

With three weeks left in the 2023 regular season, there’s still plenty to be determined in the playoff picture. No team in the AFC has secured a division title and only the Baltimore Ravens have stamped their ticket into the postseason. Meanwhile, the NFC has some clubs with a playoff ticket in hand, but three divisions are still up for grabs. With that in mind, this Christmas Weekend slate is present in itself, especially with the Ravens and 49ers squaring off on the holiday in what many believe could be a Super Bowl preview. 

As we turn our attention to this upcoming slate, let’s get our impression on the early lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers initially see coming out on top.

Week 16 early odds

(All lines via SportsLine consensus odds; all games on Sunday unless noted)

Notable movement, trends

Saints at Rams (Thursday)

These two teams are in the thick of the wild-card race in the NFC. Currently, the Rams own the tiebreaker due to their conference record, but this head-to-head could prove to be a key tiebreaker going forward. Los Angeles has remained hot winning four of their last five games and are favored by four points in this matchup at home. The Rams are 4-3 ATS at home this season, while the Saints are 2-4-1 ATS on the road. The Under may be an interesting play here are it is 10-4 in Saints games and 8-6 in Rams games this season. 

Bengals at Steelers (Saturday)

Cincinnati currently sits as the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff race, but the Steelers are just a game behind them in the loss column at 7-7. Pittsburgh also beat the Bengals earlier this season and could lock up the head-to-head tiebreaker with a win in this matchup, but they are looked at as 2.5-point underdogs at home. The Steelers are 1-3 ATS as a home dog this season, while the Bengals are 1-1 ATS as a road favorite and 4-2 on the road overall.  

Bills at Chargers (Saturday)

The Chargers are coming off a historic blowout loss to the Raiders, which resulted in the firing of head coach Brandon Staley and GM Tom Telesco. How they respond to that will be interesting as they host a Bills team that had arguably its best win of the season against Dallas. Buffalo is now a massive 13.5-point favorite on the road as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive. This number did drop, however, down from a 14-point spread at the opening. The Bills are 1-2 ATS as a road favorite, while the Chargers are 2.5 ATS at home.

Colts at Falcons

Indy is currently clinging to the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff race thanks to the win over Pittsburgh on Saturday. They’ll have a bit of a rest advantage over the Falcons, who lost to the Panthers on Sunday. Despite that loss, they are still within striking distance within the division, but will likely need to win out in order to reach the postseason. Meanwhile, the Colts are also still alive to win the AFC South after the Jaguars lost on Sunday night. Gardner Minshew’s team is favored by two points on the road. Atlanta is 2-5 ATS at home but did cover their long game as a home dog earlier this season. As for the Colts, they are 2-0 ATS as a road favorite and 4-2 ATS on the road overall. 

Seahawks at Titans

There could be more movement in this game after Seattle faces Philadelphia to wrap up Week 15, but the Seahawks are already a 2.5-point favorite on the road. Titans quarterback Will Levis reportedly suffered a sprained ankle in the loss to Houston but told reporters that he was alright afterward. Tennessee has been one of the better bets at Nissan Stadium this season as they’ve covered four of their six home games. That includes are 3-1 ATS mark as a home dog. Seattle has covered its lone game as a road favorite and is 5-2 ATS on the road overall. 

Lions at Vikings

The Vikings will stick with Nick Mullens as their quarterback as they try to hang onto their playoff position in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Lions are looking to lock up a playoff spot and a potential NFC North title as they work down the stretch. The oddsmakers have placed Detroit as a field goal favorite on the road and they’ve been a strong bet away from Ford Field as they are 5-2 ATS on the road, including a 4-1 ATS mark as an away favorite. Minnesota is 2-1 ATS as a home underdog. 

Commanders at Jets

The Jets are a field goal favorite at home where they’ll host the Commanders. New York was shut out against the Dolphins on Sunday, which eliminated them from playoff contention. Zach Wilson also left that contest due to a concussion. Meanwhile, Washington also lost in Week 15 and benched quarterback Sam Howell in the process. That said, Ron Rivera noted that Howell remains the team’s starter going forward. The Jets are 4-4 ATS at home this season, while the Commanders are 5-3 ATS on the road.  

Packers at Panthers

The Packers’ playoff hopes took a big hit on Sunday in their loss to the Buccaneers that pushed them down to 6-8 on the year. They are technically still alive, but would likely need to run the table to even have a glimmer of hope of sneaking in. Fortunately for them, they do have an easy opponent in Week 16 as they’ll head to Carolina to play the Panthers, who own the worst record in the NFL. In turn, Green Bay is a 4.5-point road favorite for this matchup, which is up from Packers -4 at the opening. The Packers haven’t been stellar on the road this season as they are 3-4 ATS away from Lambeau Field and did not cover in their only game as a road favorite this season. As for the Panthers, they are 2-3-1 ATS at home this season. 

Browns at Texans

The Browns were able to rally and beat the Bears on Sunday to keep pace in the AFC playoff picture as the No. 5 seed in the conference, while the Texans were also able to notch a win even without star quarterback C.J. Stroud. At 8-6, Houston is in the thick of the playoff race as well but is the No. 8 seed, looking up to the Browns, Bengals, and Colts. Of course, the status of Stroud will be worth monitoring this week, but the oddsmakers do have the Texans as a 2.5-point favorite at the opening. Houston is 3-4 ATS at home this season, but the Browns are 1-4-1 ATS on the road.   

Jaguars at Buccaneers

The status of Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence will be something to keep an eye on this week as he is currently in concussion protocol. That development has seen the odds for this game come off the board at some books until there is more clarity on his status. Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are looking to keep ahold of their first-place standing in this game. The Buccaneers are a slim 1.5-point favorite, but the Jaguars have been a good bet on the road this season where they are 4-1 ATS. At Raymond James Stadium, the Bucs are 2-4 ATS. Still, this game is probably a stay-away until there’s more info on Lawrence.   

Cardinals at Bears

The Cardinals are eliminated from playoff contention and the Bears could soon follow them as they sit at 5-9 coming into Week 16. Chicago will try to cling to its playoff hopes in this head-to-head as a 4.5-point favorite at Soldier Field. The Bears are 2-2-2 ATS at home this season but are just 0-1-1 ATS when considered the favorite in their building. The Cardinals are 3-4 ATS on the road.  

Cowboys at Dolphins

Points are expected to come in bunches in this game as the total for Cowboys-Dolphins is set at a slate-high 51 points. The Over is a combined 16-12 between these teams this season, but just 3-4 for Dallas on the road. The Cowboys have been a different team away from AT&T Stadium this season, so Over bettors may need to proceed with a bit of caution. As for the spread, Miami is a 1.5-point favorite. Mike McDaniel’s team is 5-2 ATS at Hard Rock Stadium, while the Cowboys are 3-4 ATS on the road. 

Broncos at Patriots

Denver is a 6-point favorite as they wrap up the Christmas Eve slate at home against New England. The Patriots have been feisty the last couple of weeks, but still lack a consistent attack on offense, which is likely why the total sits at 36. The Under is 17-11 between these teams this year, which includes a 4-2 record for the Patriots on the road. Denver is 3-4 ATS at Mile High this season, but New England is 2-4 ATS on the road.    

Raiders at Chiefs (Monday)

The Raiders are coming off a blowout win over the Chargers and now have to travel to Kansas City to face a Chiefs team that is just 3-3 ATS at home this season. Still, K.C. is a 10-point favorite over Las Vegas. The Raiders have struggled on the road this season as they are 2-4 ATS away from Allegiant Stadium. The total for this game sits at 43 and the Under could be the play here. Between these two division rivals, the Under is 19-9 this season.

Giants at Eagles (Monday)

There could be more line movement for this game after Philadelphia’s Monday night matchup in Seattle, but they are still looked at as a 10.5-point favorite. The Eagles are 3-2-1 ATS at home this season, while the Giants are 2-6 ATS on the road. The total sits at 43.5 and Under is 10-4 for the Giants so far this season.

Ravens at 49ers (Monday)

What a great way to end the Christmas Day tripleheader! We have ourselves a Super Bowl LVIII preview with the Ravens traveling to Santa Clara to take on the 49ers. Currently, both of these teams are the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences, but San Francisco is laying 5.5 points at home to Baltimore in this showdown, which is up from the 5-point spread it opened at. The Niners are 3-3 ATS at home this season, while the Ravens are 4-2 ATS on the road.