Prisco’s Week 11 NFL picks: Browns beat Steelers without Deshaun Watson; Bills get back on track vs. Jets

Any NFL week this season where I can end up over .500 picking games both against the spread and straight up will be counted as a good week.

That’s how brutal it’s been this year picking games. The league is a minefield every single week.

Can we say the word upset anymore? Nobody is any good.

Look what happened last week to the Ravens, Bengals and Bills, all losing at home to teams that were heavily favored to beat. That’s why picking games is so tough week to week.

My ATS record for the year is now 72-72-6 — yay, I made it to .500 — and my straight-up record is 89-61.

Let’s see if it’s two weeks above .500 for both — only maybe even a little better than just the squeaking by from last week.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)

This game lost a little luster when both lost last week. The Bengals looked bad on defense, while the Ravens blew a fourth-quarter lead in losing to the Browns. I think Lamar Jackson will get back on track against a Bengals defense that was shredded last week. The Ravens take it. 

Pick: Ravens 29, Bengals 24 (Result: Ravens 34, Bengals 20)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Cowboys bounced back from their Eagles loss in a big way in blowing out the Giants. The Panthers lost at Chicago on Thursday and their offense is anemic and can’t get anything going. That’s not good against the Cowboys defense. Dak Prescott is also playing well. Blowout. 

Pick: Cowboys 34, Panthers 14

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

With Deshaun Watson out, this makes this a much tougher game for the Browns. But this team is about defense and running the football. That will still play out against a Steelers team that has issues on offense and stopping the run, giving up 4.5 per rush. Browns still take it without Watson.   

Pick: Browns 23, Steelers 16

If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in Week 11.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Lions are legitimate Super Bowl contenders, while the Bears are playing out the string. The Bears could have Justin Fields back from injury, but it won’t matter. The Lions are playing at a high level, particularly on offense. Look for that to continue. 

Pick: Lions 30, Bears 17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

This is a game featuring two teams that badly need a victory — or else. Both were expected to be better teams than they are, yet here they are in a must-win for both. Justin Herbert came alive last week in a big way against the Lions, but his defense is a mess. This will be a shootout and Herbert and the Chargers will win a close one. 

Pick: Chargers 31, Packers 29

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Texans are flying high after beating the Bengals on the road last week. The Cardinals got Kyler Murray back last week and he played well. The Cardinals have stayed in a lot of games this season and this one will be no different.  It’s close, but Texans win it. 

Pick: Texans 24, Cardinals 23

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Titans are playing a third consecutive road game, which is brutal. The Jaguars are coming off a terrible showing against the 49ers at home, so they will be stewing. Their offense has struggled this season, but they will get it going here. The Jaguars win it big. 

Pick: Jaguars 28, Titans 13

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Dolphins are coming off a bye, one they hopefully used to get the offense cranked up again after a bad showing against the Chiefs. The Raiders have won two straight with interim coach Antonio Pierce. But this is the spot where the Dolphins get back on track with Tua Tagovailoa having a good day. They handle Aidan O’Connell on the other side. 

Pick: Dolphins 31, Raiders 14

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Giants are a mess right now and appear to have a chance to get the first overall pick. Their quarterback situation is bad, no matter who plays. Sam Howell is getting better by the week for the Commanders. That’s the difference here as Washington takes it. 

Pick: Commanders 27, Giants 9

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

This is a long trip for the Bucs against a team that is coming off an impressive blowout of the Jaguars. Tampa Bay’s offense will struggle here against a good 49ers defense that is even better with Chase Young. Brock Purdy has a big day. San Francisco big. 

Pick: 49ers 30, Bucs 16

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Bills have a lot of issues. The Jets have offensive issues. New York beat Buffalo in Week 1 with a great defensive effort, and it seems to have Josh Allen’s number. But the Jets are playing consecutive road games and they have little in terms of offense. Even so, I think they hang around here, but the Bills win a close one. 

Pick: Bills 22, Jets 20

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Rams are coming off a bye, but will have Matthew Stafford back in this one. The Seahawks lost the Rams at home in Week 1, but they are a better team than they were back then. Even so, I think the Rams will find a way to pull off this upset. 

Pick: Rams 23, Seahawks 20

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)

This is suddenly a game between two teams that have playoff hopes, especially the Vikings. The Broncos won at Buffalo Monday night, thanks to a big-time defensive showing. The Vikings have been winning with defense during their five-game winning streak. That means this will be a low-scoring game, but I think the Vikings will find a way to win it late. 

Pick: Vikings 20, Broncos 17

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)

This is the game of the week, a rematch of last February’s Super Bowl. The Chiefs won that won, despite an amazing game by Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts. He hasn’t looked healthy this season. The Chiefs defense is playing really good football. That will be the difference as they slow down the Eagles offense. Patrick Mahomes wins this battle again. 

Pick: Chiefs 26, Eagles 19