Doug Pederson says he wants struggling Jaguars offense to take ‘more shots’ downfield

With Doug Pederson stepping in for Urban Meyer, the Jacksonville Jaguars improved their performance in almost every meaningful offensive metric last season. With Calvin Ridley added to the mix this season, and with Trevor Lawrence having another year of experience in Pederson’s offense, it was supposed to be wheels up this year. 

Instead, the Jags appear to have stagnated — or even taken a step backward. Jacksonville finished last season ranked 10th in both yards and points per game, 11th in both points per drive and the share of drives that ended with a touchdown or field goal, and 10th in both FTN’s offensive DVOA and Tru Media’s EPA/play. They’ve backslid in every one of those statistics this season. 

Pederson was asked on Wednesday about the offense having one of the lowest route depths in the NFL. “Honestly we should be conscious of probably taking more shots, quite frankly,” Pederson said, per Jaguar Report. 

According to Tru Media, Lawrence’s average throw has traveled just 6.9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, which puts the Jags tied with the New York Giants for 25th in the NFL. Jacksonville’s average depth of throw was 7.3 yards last season, checking in 21st in the league. Lawrence has thrown deep (20-plus yards downfield) on just 9.8% of his attempt after doing so 10.1% of the time last year. Adding Ridley to the mix should have raised those numbers, but it hasn’t. 

How much of this can be laid at the feet of Lawrence? How much is on the play-calling? How much is on the offensive line? It’s hard to say. 

Lawrence is getting the ball out INCREDIBLY quickly, with an average time to throw of just 2.55 seconds — fourth-fastest among 33 qualifying passers. And he has a relatively low pressure rate (29.7%) because of that. As ESPN’s Mina Kimes showed, though, when he’s had to hold the ball for any longer than 2.5 seconds, he has faced the highest pressure rate in the NFL. (League average time to throw is 2.81 seconds.) Lawrence is also throwing to his running backs (aka Travis Etienne) more often than he did last year, with 17.6% of his passes directed to backs compared with 13.3% a year ago. That’ll also result in a lower average depth of throw, because running back targets are almost all at or behind the line of scrimmage. 

Whatever the reason, it’s clear that the Jaguars do need to find a way to get the ball downfield more often. They shouldn’t have a quarterback with Lawrence’s skill set, with the weapons they have, operating in such condensed spaces all the time. Pederson is right that they need to take more shots. The question now is how they can scheme those shots open on a more consistent basis.