In my 4.5 years of doing these picks, I don’t think I’ve witnessed as brutal of a week as Week 7 in the NFL was. Not just for me, but seemingly everyone. The New England Patriots upset the Buffalo Bills, the Baltimore Ravens throttled the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings upset the San Francisco 49ers. It was unbelievable.
There’s nowhere to go but up at this point. Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 14-19-2
Overall ATS record: 45-58-3
Straight up record: 60-46
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Titans are 1-4 over the last two years when Ryan Tannehill does not start, and due to his ankle injury, it doesn’t appear he will be on the field Sunday. So, in steps Will Levis and Malik Willis, who have to take on the No. 3 defense in the NFL behind a subpar offensive line.
It’s true that Desmond Ridder has turned the ball over nine times in the last four games, but the Titans just shipped a defensive leader in Kevin Byard to the Philadelphia Eagles. I’m expecting a low-scoring affair, but the Titans have lost 10 straight games vs. teams entering with a .500 or better record. That’s the longest active streak in the NFL!
The Titans are rumored to be sellers at the trade deadline. This could be the final game for Derrick Henry and/or DeAndre Hopkins in Tennessee. It’s a shame I have the Titans losing this game while they wear the sexiest throwback uniforms in existence. But I would be surprised to see Atlanta drop this one.
The pick: Falcons -2.5
Projected score: Falcons 20-16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Derek Carr has been frustrated as of late, Chris Olave ran into some trouble off the field for driving too fast and the Saints have won just one of their last five games. Now, they travel to Indy to take on a team that dropped 456 yards of total offense and 38 points on the best defense in the NFL last week. By the way, New Orleans averages just 19 points per game.
Now, Gardner Minshew hasn’t been consistent and the Colts defense doesn’t exactly rival the ’85 Bears, but I liked watching Josh Downs explode for 125 yards and a touchdown last week, and Jonathan Taylor have his breakout performance this season with 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown.
Saints backers will point to their stingy defense, but New Orleans is 1-5-1 ATS on the year while Indy is 4-3 ATS.
The pick: Colts +1
Projected score: Colts 24-20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Cowboys are coming off of their bye week, while the Rams are coming off of a deflating loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Dallas is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games following a bye. The Cowboys are also 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, and have outscored opponents 68-13 in their two games in Dallas this season.
The Rams are a very solid team, but I’m going to take the well-rested squad that’s great at home. Matthew Stafford has lost his last four starts vs. the Cowboys, and turned the ball over eight times in those matchups.
The pick: Cowboys -6
Projected score: Cowboys 26-17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
I feel like many are picking this spot for the Panthers to cover their first game of the season. Bryce Young has certainly shown some improvement as of late, but just because Frank Reich gave up play-calling duties doesn’t mean the rookie is automatically going to take a massive jump.
This is the fifth matchup between rookie quarterbacks drafted 1-2 in the common draft era. The quarterback selected first is 1-3 in those matchups. Stroud is currently the heavy favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and I bet he wants to show the Panthers what they’re missing out on.
Stroud averages 276.7 passing yards per game (No. 4 in the NFL), and has thrown nine touchdowns compared to one interception. The Ohio State product also has thrown a touchdown on third down in five straight games, which is the longest streak by any rookie since at least 1991.
Maybe the other experts are onto something, but Houston is 4-2 ATS while Carolina is 0-5-1.
The pick: Texans -3
Projected score: Texans 23-16
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)
The Lions were terrible last week. They went to Baltimore and got down 28-0 before anyone could even blink. It tied the largest halftime deficit in NFL history by a team with the best record in the league this late in a season. I’m fine with this being a throwaway game, but I still have questions about this secondary.
Maybe the Lions needed this slap in the face. Now, they return to their fans in prime time to take on a team averaging 16 points per game. The Raiders are the only team in the NFL that hasn’t scored more than 21 points in a game this season! Last week, I made them a best bet to defeat a D-II quarterback making his first career start, and clearly that was a mistake. I’ll take the Lions to cover the big number.
The pick: Lions -8
Projected score: Lions 30-14
Other Week 8 picks
Bills (-9) 27-14 over Buccaneers
Dolphins 28-20 over Patriots (+9)
Jets (-3) 23-18 over Giants
Vikings (PICK) 24-23 over Packers
Eagles 26-21 over Commanders (+6.5)
Steelers (+2.5) 16-13 over Jaguars
Seahawks (-3.5) 24-18 over Browns
Ravens (-8.5) 31-10 over Cardinals
Chiefs (-7) 28-20 over Broncos
49ers 23-20 over Bengals (+3.5)
Chargers (-8.5) 35-24 over Bears
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Author: Jordan Dajani
October 26, 2023 | 9:25 am
