NFL

NFL Week 7 odds, picks: Lions continue rolling vs. Ravens, Dolphins carve up Eagles’ injury-plagued secondary

by
SaC Bot
October 18, 2023

USATSI

Week 6 was gross. Low-scoring games, bad game flow throughout, and it was a lackluster showing by yours truly with my picks. I went 6-9 ATS on the slate and just 2-3 ATS with my locks of the week, largely thanks to being on the wrong side of the two biggest upsets by backing San Francisco and Philadelphia. While the Bills earned the straight-up win, they managed just 14 points as opposed to clearing the two-touchdown spread.

Our bit of luck came in Raiders-Patriots with Maxx Crosby sacking Mac Jones in the end zone for the safety that allowed us to cover Las Vegas -3. Outside of that, we’re happy to move on to Week 7. It’s a smaller slate with six teams on the bye, so there is zero room for error. Let’s get to it.

2023 record

Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 16-14
ATS: 45-45-3
ML: 56-37

All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.

The Bills almost fell victim to what was a weekend filled with upsets in Week 6, but hung on at the last second to beat the Giants. The offense hasn’t looked particularly in sync over the last few weeks, and they’re due for a get-right game, which I expect to come Sunday in Foxborough. New England is a bad football team where everything seems to look hard, particularly on offense. Even its two touchdown drives last week took a combined 27 plays. The Patriots don’t have the capability to keep pace with Buffalo’s offense, even if it is moving at less than 100%.

Projected score: Bills 27, Patriots 13
The pick: Bills -8.5

Cleveland’s defense is special. They just held the 49ers to the fewest yards in any game under head coach Kyle Shanahan, and that’s not simply due to the weather. This season, the Browns are holding opponents to 200.4 yards per game, which is the fewest through five games by any team since the 1971 Colts. No matter who is under center for them on offense, this defense should be able to contain Indianapolis to put the Browns in a position to win. With Anthony Richardson on injured reserve, it’ll be Gardner Minshew who’ll get the start again under center. He’s coming off his worst showing of the season with three interceptions against the Jaguars and has only completed 61% of his passes his in starts thus far. I can’t see him turning any sort of corner against this defense.

Projected score: Browns 23, Colts 17
The pick: Browns -2

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)

It’s easy to say now after Jalen Hurts‘ three-interception day in the loss to New York last week, but Philadelphia has looked off on more than one occasion this season. On top of that lack of consistency on offense, the secondary is in bad shape with injuries piling up, specifically at safety. That’s a bad combination with a high-flying offense like the Dolphins next up on the schedule. Miami leads the NFL in yards per play and yards per pass attempt by rather significant margins. Tyreek Hill continues to make a legitimate MVP case, as he’s on pace for more than 2,300 receiving yards. Now, he gets a Philly secondary that is allowing 302 passing yards per game at home this season (second-most in the NFL). I simply like the trajectory of the Dolphins at the moment more than the Eagles.

Projected score: Dolphins 30, Eagles 27
The pick: Dolphins +1.5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX, fubo)

Sneaky possible Super Bowl preview in the 1 p.m. window. While it’s conceivable that both of these teams represent their respective conferences in Las Vegas in February, the Lions are the better football team, so I’ll be more than happy to put a field goal in my pocket with a team that is 3-0 SU and ATS on the road in 2023. The key matchup will be Detroit’s offense (No. 4 scoring unit in the NFL) going up against Baltimore’s stout defense. The Ravens have struggled to hold leads over the past few seasons, which has me siding with the Lions offense. John Harbaugh’s club is also coming off a matchup in London where it ran 70 plays (tied for second-most this season), so fatigue could also be a factor here.

Projected score: Lions 24, Ravens 20
The pick: Lions +3

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)

Denver’s defense looked much better against Kansas City than it has all season in Week 6, but I wonder if that was more of an outlier than it was this unit turning a corner. The Broncos now host a Packers team that was able to rest up during the Week 6 bye, self-scout, and correct some of the rough patches we saw in the first few weeks with Jordan Love. If the Denver secondary looks more like it did in the first month of the year, there should be plenty of opportunities for Christian Watson and the rest of the Packers receivers to rip off chunk plays. As for the Packers, their defense has held opponents to 4.9 yards per play this season, which is inside the top 10 of the league. The Broncos are also 0-3 ATS at home.

Projected score: Packers 26, Broncos 20
The pick: Packers -1