Week 6 of the 2023 NFL schedule begins at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Denver Broncos in an AFC West clash on Thursday Night Football in front of a national audience. Kansas City is 4-1 this season following a 27-20 road win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5. Denver is 1-4 overall, posting the team’s worst five-game start to a season since 2019. Both teams’ games have gone over two of the last three weeks.
Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET in Kansas City. Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47 in the latest Chiefs vs. Broncos odds. Before making any Broncos vs. Chiefs picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 171-119 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 25-11 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Broncos and just locked in its picks and Thursday Night Football predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Broncos vs. Chiefs:
- Chiefs vs. Broncos spread: Chiefs -10.5
- Chiefs vs. Broncos over/under: 47 points
- Chiefs vs. Broncos money line: Chiefs -565, Broncos +417
- DEN: Broncos are 0-4-1 against the spread this season
- KC: Chiefs are 3-2 against the spread this season
- Chiefs vs. Broncos picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Broncos can cover
The Broncos can hope to win on the margins, including the NFL’s best kickoff return average (35.2 yards per return). While the Broncos are struggling overall on defense, second-year standout Nik Bonitto is in the top eight of the NFL with 5.5 sacks, including 4.5 combined in the last two games.
On the outside, Patrick Surtain II is an elite cornerback, earning All-Pro honors in 2022 and ranking in the top eight of the NFL with six passes defended in 2023. Kansas City’s corps of wide receivers is weakened this season, with no wide receiver averaging more than 43.8 yards per game, and star tight end Travis Kelce suffered an injury in Week 5 that has him hit with a questionable tag for Thursday Night Football. See which team to pick here.
Why the Chiefs can cover
The Chiefs have won 15 straight games against the Broncos, with 11 of those victories quarterbacked by Patrick Mahomes. The five-time Pro Bowler and two-time MVP has never lost to Denver and averaged 340 passing yards per game against the Broncos in 2022. Mahomes is also 32-8 lifetime at Arrowhead Stadium during the regular season and is coming off a 2022 season in which he led the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns.
The Chiefs are 27-3 against AFC West opponents with Mahomes at the helm and he has 66 touchdown passes in those 30 division games. In 2022, Mahomes generated 1,738 passing yards, 16 touchdown passes and only four interceptions in six games against division foes and is off to a strong start in 2023. That includes the league’s No. 1 sack rate (2.13%) and top-five marks in QBR (73.5) and total offense (1,413 yards). See which team to pick here.
How to make Chiefs vs. Broncos picks on TNF
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the point total, calling for 52 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s TNF picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Broncos vs. Chiefs on Thursday Night Football, and which side of the spread cashes almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Broncos vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 171-119 roll on NFL picks, and find out.
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Author: CBS Sports Staff
October 12, 2023 | 9:50 am
