Cowboys overreactions, reality checks after Week 5 stumble at 49ers: Dallas not a legitimate NFC contender?

The Dallas Cowboys fell on their face for the third consecutive matchup against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5 as they were body-slammed 42-10 in Northern California on Sunday night. After having the 49ers stomp out their last two postseasons following 12-win regular seasons in 2021 and 2022, everyone from head coach Mike McCarthy on down to essentially every player spoke about how they were preparing like their “Sunday Night Football” showdown with San Francisco was bigger than just another game.

The 32-point loss on Sunday is the largest of the series as well as the largest defeat the Cowboys have suffered with Dak Prescott as their staring quarterback. The defeat is also the second-worst of McCarthy’s NFL head-coaching career, trailing only a 35-0 loss he suffered in Week 11 of the 2006 season against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in his first year leading the Green Bay Packers. Given that the Cowboys won 38-3 against the Patriots a week ago, their Week 5 meltdown is the fourth-biggest defeat a week after a 35-point victory since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. 

Here is a look at some of the Cowboys’ biggest storylines from a deflating, humbling faceplant in the Bay Area. 

The Cowboys appear to be frontrunners

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Good news, the Cowboys have taken care of business and smoked some struggling football teams this season like the New York Giants (40-0), New York Jets (30-10) and the New England Patriots (38-3). Bad news, they have lost to a team they were supposed to crush in the Arizona Cardinals (28-16) and appeared as though they were the junior varsity to the San Francisco 49ers varsity. 

Dak Prescott threw three interceptions, two of which were ugly, YOLO balls, and the vaunted, Micah Parsons-led defense allowed 42 points as Brock Purdy totaled four passing touchdowns and 252 yards on 17-of-24 passing. Even worse, their pass rush couldn’t do much of anything. Dallas entered Week 5 leading the NFL with 55.6% quarterback pressure rate, the best in the NFL by over 10 percentage points. On Sunday, they pressured Purdy on 23.1% of his dropbacks, ranked as the fifth-lowest of Week 5 entering “Monday Night Football”.

The combined record of the Cowboys’ first four 2023 foes was 5-15, and they outscored them by nearly 100 points, 124-41. That is the mark of what looked to be dominant team. San Francisco has now improved to 5-0, and they outscored Dallas 42-10. The Cowboys allowed more points in Week 5 than they had all season, calling into question if they have what it takes to hang in the playoffs this season. That makes Dallas the first team since the 1990 Raiders to surrender more points in their fifth game of a season than they allowed in their first four games combined, according to ESPN Stats and Info. Those Raiders reached the AFC Championship Game, but they were blown to smithereens by Jim Kelly’s and Marv Levy’s Buffalo Bills, 51-3. 

Dallas Cowboys This Season

* Giants, Jets, Cardinals, Patriots

In both of Dallas’ losses this season, at the Cardinals and 49ers, their opponent began the game with the football and scored a touchdown. Playing from behind is not the way the Cowboys like to play because that type of game flow neutralizes their electric pass rush to an extent. Being able to come back from early deficits is something they will have to work through if they want to be taken seriously going forward. 

Head coach Mike McCarthy’s “Texas Coast” offense appears to be predictable

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Dallas Cowboys offense appeared predictable Sunday night against the 49ers. Plays under center were mostly runs while plays out of the shotgun were mostly passes. Dallas ran play-action on 10.2% of their offensive plays, the ninth-lowest rate in the league in Week 5. The Cowboys didn’t run any plays with motion in Week 5, and their 40.2% motion rate this season ranks 21st in the league. Head coach Mike McCarthy and his players sold the narrative of a revamped offense with all the good parts of former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s attack while streamlining some of the pass concepts to help quarterback Dak Prescott play more efficiently while lining up the route progressions and blocking schemes to his footwork.

So far, what they’re doing in 2023 is less effective than what they did with Moore calling plays in 2022. When you remove non-offensive scores, of which the Cowboys have four this season, and take the temperature of the Dallas, offense, they’re averaging 21.2 offensive points per game this season, down 5.2 points per game from last season. One of McCarthy’s big philosophical assertions about his offense versus Moore’s was that he “wanted to run the damn ball.” That was said in the context of maintaining possession and not wearing out his defense. So far, the Cowboys are running the football at essentially the same rate as they did in Moore’s offense. 

Cowboys Offense Last 2 Seasons

Meanwhile, the Chargers are averaging five more points per game with Moore (27. 5 in 2023 vs. 22.5 in 2022) while quarterback Justin Herbert has increased his average pass length to 8.8 in 2023, the fifth-longest in the NFL, after averaging 6.4 last season, the third-shortest in the NFL. It’s fortuitous timing that the Chargers and Cowboys play head-to-head in Week 6 on “Monday Night Football.” 

The Cowboys defense is vulnerable 

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Yes, allowing 42 points and 421 yard of total offense is horrendous. However, they still have a path to get back on track because not every offense has Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel plus a perfectly tailored scheme to accentuate all that talent. There will be many weeks that Micah Parsons — his 29 quarterback pressures are the second-most in the NFL as is his 22.3% quarterback pressure percentage among the 92 players with 100 or more pass rushes this season —  Pro Bowler DeMarcus Lawrence and the rest of the Cowboys talented defense is enough to overwhelm an opponent.

Against a scheme lord like Kyle Shanahan and against the type of weapons the 49ers have, it will take everyone playing their best game as well as defensive coordinator Dan Quinn being on his A-game. However, this defense isn’t broken. It just happened to have its worst night on national television. 

Dak Prescott has a legitimate 49ers problem

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott had mostly cruised through the 2023 season entering Week 5, completing 71.3% of his passes for 908 yards, four touchdowns and only one interception for a 96.1 passer rating. On Sunday night, the Cowboys fell behind early, and Prescott pressed too much, throwing three interceptions — two very ugly — one 26-yard touchdown to receiver/return man KaVontae Turpin and 153 yards on 14 of 24 passing. After winning his first two meetings against the 49ers in his first two seasons from 2016-2017, Prescott has lost his last three starts against San Francisco while throwing double the amount of interceptions (six) as he has touchdowns (three). This has taken place while the 49ers have cycled through three different defensive coordinators: Robert Saleh (now the New York Jets head coach), DeMeco Ryans (now the Houston Texans head coach) and presently Steve Wilks. 

Dak Prescott Career vs. 49ers Including Postseason

Struggling with the 49ers doesn’t erase Prescott’s redeeming qualities, but it does provide questions about his ability to remain cool against one of the NFC’s top powers and not allow himself to get flustered.