NFL

NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 5, 2023: Model high on Eagles, Patriots

by
SaC Bot
October 7, 2023

USATSI

Two teams coming off losses by a combined 49 points will meet on Sunday as the Dolphins host the Giants. The Week 5 NFL odds have Miami as a 12.5-point favorite, and the spread has gone up since the Giants were dominated on Monday by the Seahawks. The Dolphins lead the NFL with 37.5 points per game, while the Giants are dead-last with 11.5. NFL spreads could shift close to game time, so is now the time to jump on Miami with your Week 5 NFL bets if you’re confident this is destined to be another ugly result for New York? All of the Week 5 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 5 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 168-118 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 22-10 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 5 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 5 NFL predictions

One of the model’s strongest Week 5 NFL picks is that the Eagles (-4) cover against the Rams. After an abysmal follow-up season to their Super Bowl win two years ago, the Rams have looked rejuvenated with the youngest roster in the NFL. However, they’re still only 2-2 after suffering single-possession losses to the 49ers and Bengal.

The Eagles will try to control the line of scrimmage with the No. 2 rushing offense and No. 2 run defense in the NFL. Los Angeles ranks 23rd in the NFL in yards per carry (3.7) on offense and ranks 24th in yards allowed per carry (4.4) defensively. D’Andre Swift has piled up 361 yards on the ground over the last three weeks and Jalen Hurts continues to be one of the league’s most effective goal-line runners with three rushing touchdowns.

The model is expecting that the Eagles put together another strong performance on the ground with Jalen Hurts piling up nearly 270 yards of total offense and accounting for at least two touchdowns on average. That is a big reason why it is predicting that the Eagles cover the 4-point spread on the road in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 5 NFL predictions: The Patriots (PK) cover the spread at home versus the Saints. New Orleans is one of the handful of teams yet to cover this season and has failed to cover in five straight games dating back to the 2022 season.

The team’s lack of offensive production is a major reason why the Saints are winless against the spread. They have more turnovers (five) than touchdowns (four) on the season. New Orleans has been outscored 44-9 over the last six quarters, failing to score a touchdown in any of them.

New England should receive a boost from playing at home since five of its six touchdowns have come at Gillette Stadium. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ defense is still among the best, ranking in the top 10 against the run and pass. Saints quarterback Derek Carr has faced New England four times in his career and had more touchdowns than turnovers just once. With these factors, the model says the Patriots cover in over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 5 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 5 NFL schedule, and it’s identified two must-see underdogs who win straight-up. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which two underdogs stun the league? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.