NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Bills quiet Dolphins hype, Panthers cover vs. Vikings, Buccaneers beat down Saints

Previously in this space, we’ve highlighted Taylor Swift and her many wonderful songs. Unfortunately, it appears Ms. Swift has become popular. Who knew?? No doubt her success is strictly a result of my most recent best bets column — and the wins have been reciprocal, as we’re in the black for the year through three weeks after a 3-2 effort in Week 3. 

We want to keep it that way, so it’s probably best to stick with the musical theme right? Maybe we can pair up Travis’ brother and podcast co-host, Jason Kelce. It can’t be a Swift-like match, however, because as anyone who listens to the wildly entertaining “New Heights” pod knows, Jason is married. 

So what about a super weird, localized band? And by super weird, of course, I mean Ween. Philly-formed, they’ve got songs like “Freedom of ’76” (featuring lyrics like “‘Mannequin’ was filmed at Woolworth’s” along with shoutouts to “Boyz II Men”). And unlike Taylor Swift, they won’t betray Philly and suddenly become Chiefs fans. 

They’re so Philly that they’ve announced a show a year in advance in the City of Brotherly Love where, allegedly, they’ll be playing “Chocolate and Cheese” in its entirety. See you there, and maybe Jason will join us.

Speaking of Philly, I have the Eagles remaining undefeated and covering the 8-point spread against the Commanders this week. You can check out all of my picks at SportsLine (first month for $1 by using promo code PICK) and can see my full Week 4 picks here. And of course, check out our Pick Six NFL Week 4 NFL picks podcast live at 2 p.m. ET on our YouTube page, or listen anytime wherever you get your podcasts. 

Now onto the football picks. Let’s stay hot!

Everyone and their brother is dying to bet Miami, and they can’t understand why the Dolphins aren’t favored after dropping 70 on the Broncos last week. It’s a fair question, but it clearly ignores how good Buffalo remains. The Bills are good. Josh Allen is good. The Dolphins are really, really good and Mike McDaniel might be the best coach in the NFL *right now.* Having said all that, Sean McDermott is in his bag defensively at the moment and Allen took the Week 1 Jets lesson to heart. If Vic Fangio flips him for real, then you tip your cap. But everyone is going to back the Dolphins here and be shocked when the Bills are the better team. Well, not everyone.

Chiefs (-9.5) at Jets 

Acting like there are “layers” to this is pretty crazy, but sometimes you do get a “Taylor Swift has to show up in New York” game with Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes looking to show off a touch plus Andy Reid determined to keep the score low. Everyone focused on Swiftie stuff, but the real masterminds remembered Mahomes getting hurt and dealing with an ankle injury. The under is a slammer here because of Reid’s turf knowledge. The Chiefs defense has been great and they won’t give up more than 10 points. If you think Kansas City can’t score 21, go ahead and fade them.

You shouldn’t bet this game, but my parents are going to be in Charlotte for this matchup. And I’ll be damned if I won’t fade Kirk Cousins — even at 1 p.m. — in the interest of hoping my family can see some good football. Also … the Vikings defense isn’t good, they won’t pressure Carolina as much as people expect, and the Panthers offensive line will/should be motivated by the eight (EIGHT!) false starts from last week. This is a quietly desperate Panthers team — even if the Vikings are better, they’ll find a way to let Carolina stay within a field goal. 

The Bucs got hammered by the Eagles on Monday night in ugly weather, but the Saints took a worse loss Sunday, coughing up a huge lead to the Packers while simultaneously losing Derek Carr for an undetermined period of time with a sprain of his AC joint. Carr is “week to week” with the injury and I don’t expect him to play, which makes this a revenge game for Jameis Winston! Or the Buccaneers, depending on how you look at it? Tampa’s defense is capable of preying on mistake-prone quarterbacks and buddy is Jameis mistake prone. Baker Mayfield will have more time against New Orleans, he’s indoors, and the Bucs will keep this within a field goal.