Josh Allen is the key to the Bills cooling off the red-hot Dolphins and here’s why

We know Tom Brady has a minority ownership stake with the Raiders, but has anyone checked to see about Josh Allen’s status with the Dolphins? 

There are few QBs, if any, who have dominated a single team quite like Allen has owned the Dolphins. He is just the player who could cool off a team coming off a 70-point game. The Bills are coming off back-to-back wins of 28 and 34 points, respectively, and have one of the league’s best defenses, but it’s Allen that poses the greatest threat to Miami. 

Allen is 9-2 in his career against the Dolphins, including the playoffs, and 6-0 at home, where the Dolphins and Bills play this week. Buffalo had scored 32.7 points per game in Allen’s starts against Miami and Allen has accounted for 34 of the Bills’ 42 offensive touchdowns in those games (81 percent).

He’s done it through the air and on the ground. He accounts for both instances in NFL history of a QB averaging 250 pass yards and 50 rush yards per game against one team, with a minimum of five games. Allen has done this against Miami (in 11 games) and Kansas City (five games). Nobody else has averaged both benchmarks against a single team, ever.

Josh Allen career vs. Dolphins (including playoffs)

He also has multiple touchdown passes in every game against Miami. His 11 straight games with at least two-plus touchdown passes against the Dolphins is the longest streak by any QB against any single team in NFL history. That includes the three he threw against Miami in Buffalo’s 34-31 Wild Card win last postseason. He broke a record held by Dan Marino, who had 10 straight games with multiple touchdown passes against the Jets. 

Last year was the icing on the cake. Between passing and rushing Allen totaled 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns in three games against Miami. That’s the most yards any player has put up against any team in a season in NFL history, including playoffs. It’s rare to play three games against one team, but 400 yards and three touchdowns per game is still remarkable. Allen also joined Dan Fouts as the only player with three 300-yard passing games against one team in a season ever. Fouts did this against the Raiders in 1980.

Josh Allen last season vs. Dolphins (including playoffs)

Dolphins’ fans who think “this time will be different” could argue a few things. They have a new defensive coordinator in Vic Fangio. To counter that, Josh Allen had four touchdowns (two passing and two rushing) plus 359 pass yards the last time he faced a Fangio defense. That was in 2020 as the Bills dismantled the Broncos 48-19.

Miami also has a good pass rush anchored by edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips. However, 16 of Josh Allen’s 30 career touchdown passes against the Dolphins have come when he was pressured. The Dolphins have been able to get near him but not consistently create impactful pressure. That’s the most touchdown passes under pressure by any QB against any team since 2018 when Allen came into the league. Allen actually has a higher passer rating against Miami when pressured, compared with when he has a clean pocket, according to PFF data. Nobody knows how demoralizing that can be for a defense more than Commanders’ head coach Ron Rivera, who was just on the wrong side of a 37-3 loss in Week 3 against Allen and the Bills. He said this in his presser the day after the game. 

“I think Josh Allen got into our guy’s head a little bit after that first couple series. I mean, tucking the ball and running because basically first of all, coverage was good, but they’d gotten to him and forced him out of the pocket and a guy with that kind of ability can stretch a play, get outside. There’s a frustration that comes with it too when you feel like you should be making a sack, you should be making a play.”

Commanders … the Dolphins feel your pain and have been on the wrong side of this many times. Their best chance at beating Allen (besides dropping 50 points) is forcing turnovers or being on the right side of a few self-inflicted mistakes. 

Allen turned the ball over three times in their playoff matchup last season as Miami almost pulled off a miracle upset with Skylar Thompson at quarterback. Overall, Allen has an NFL-high 85 turnovers since he was drafted, including a 9-13 record when he has multiple turnovers, versus a 45-12 mark with one or fewer giveaways. 

That’s one of the few stats that provide hope for Miami to slow down Allen, while there’s a mountain of data pointing to a history of Allen’s dominance over his division rival.