NFL

NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 4, 2023: Model backing Texans, Chargers

by
SaC Bot
September 27, 2023

USATSI

Just as was the case to open the 2023 NFL season, New York will again take center stage on primetime to close the Week 4 NFL schedule. Back in Week 1, the Giants were demolished by the Cowboys on Sunday night before the Jets lost Aaron Rodgers on Monday. This time around, the Jets get the Sunday night slot, hosting the Chiefs, while the Giants will get a Monday night visit from the Seahawks. Both New York teams are underdogs in the latest Week 4 NFL odds, as the Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites over the Jets and the Seahawks are 1.5-point favorites over the Giants.

These are two of the six games in which home teams are NFL underdogs according to the Week 4 NFL spreads. All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 167-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 21-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 4 NFL predictions

One of the model’s strongest Week 4 NFL picks is that the Texans (+3) cover against the Steelers. Houston pulled off one of the many upsets in Week 3, outright defeating the Jaguars on the road despite being 7.5-point underdogs. The Texans have now gone 5-3 against the spread over their last eight games dating back to last season.

C.J. Stroud has been not only the best rookie quarterback, but also one of the better QBs in the league, ranking fourth in passing yards (906) with zero interceptions. Meanwhile, Kenny Pickett has struggled in his sophomore season, ranking 25th in passer rating and 27th in completion percentage. However, Pittsburgh’s biggest weakness is stopping the run, as it ranks 30th in that regard, so Houston should be able to find rushing lanes to couple with its sixth-ranked passing offense behind Stroud’s arm. With that in mind, Houston (+3) is projected to cover in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 4 NFL predictions: The Chargers (-4.5) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. Justin Herbert has taken his game to another level and ranks first in the NFL in completion percentage (74.4%), second in passer rating (112.9) and third in yards (939) with zero interceptions. He’s combining volume with efficiency and the Chargers have the No. 2 total offense and No. 6 scoring offense.

He’s the last QB that Las Vegas wants to see since the Raiders just allowed Kenny Pickett to have the best game of his career in Week 3. Herbert owns a 14:1 TD:INT in his career versus the Raiders, while Jimmy Garoppolo has underwhelmed in his Las Vegas debut. Garoppolo already has more interceptions (six) this year than he had all of last season (four) and leads the NFL in picks despite ranking just 18th in pass attempts.

The Chargers finally have momentum after their Week 3 win, while Las Vegas has lost two straight. Los Angeles (-4.5) covers in almost 60% of simulations per the model. The Over (50.5) is also projected to hit in nearly 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 4 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule, and it’s identified three must-see underdogs who win straight-up. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three underdogs stun the league? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.