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Week 4 NFL picks, odds, 2023 best bets from advanced model: This 5-way football parlay pays 25-1

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The Baltimore Ravens will travel to Ohio for the second time in three weeks when they face Cleveland on Sunday during the Week 4 NFL schedule. Baltimore left Ohio with a 27-24 win at Cincinnati two weeks ago, but lost to Indianapolis in overtime in its ensuing game. The Ravens are 2.5-point underdogs against the Browns in the Week 4 NFL odds from the SportsLine Consensus. Cleveland has already recorded a pair of blowout wins at home this season, including a 27-3 victory against Tennessee last week. 

Other intriguing Week 4 NFL spreads include Buffalo (-2.5) vs. Miami, Tennessee (-1) vs. Cincinnati and Minnesota (-3.5) at Carolina. Which teams should you include in your Week 4 NFL parlays? Before you make any Week 4 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 167-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 21-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.  

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has locked in five confident NFL best bets for Week 4. If you successfully parlay its picks, you’d be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model’s Week 4 NFL picks at SportsLine.

Top Week 4 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Buffalo Bills (-2.5) to cover at home against the Miami Dolphins. Miami has been the top offensive team in the NFL this season, scoring the most points by any team in a game since 1966 when it beat Denver 70-20 last Sunday. The Dolphins scored at least 14 points in every quarter, as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw four touchdown passes and racked up 309 yards. 

However, they are facing a Buffalo defense that has allowed a combined 13 points over the past two weeks, holding Washington to one field goal in a 37-3 blowout last week. The Bills are led by star quarterback Josh Allen, who has thrown for over 700 yards and rushed for 89 more while totaling six touchdowns. Second-year running back James Cook is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, while wide receiver Stefon Diggs has 25 receptions for 279 yards. 

Buffalo has won seven consecutive home games against Miami and is 13-2 in its last 15 home games overall. The Dolphins have only picked up one win in their last 10 games overall against the Bills, one reason why the model has Buffalo covering the spread in almost 60% of simulations. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.

How to make Week 4 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including an underdog that wins outright. You can only see the model’s NFL Week 4 best bets and parlay at SportsLine

What are the model’s top Week 4 NFL picks? And which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 4 NFL best bets from a model on a 167-117 run on top-rated picks, and find out.

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Author: CBS Sports Staff
September 26, 2023 | 9:55 am

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