Picking games in Week 1 ended with a solid showing for me, which is a change from recent NFL years. It’s a challenge to pick early-season games, even more so in the first week, but I somehow managed to go 10-6 against the spread in our CBSSports.com expert picks and 9-7 straight up.
It’s a little odd to do better ATS than straight up, but I will take it.
This week might be get-even week for a lot of teams that lost in Week 1. It also might be a week for some of those teams that looked dominant in their first game to come back to reality a bit.
So be careful, there are some pitfalls out there. There are upsets lurking.
I picked some outright underdogs to win here and several to cover. The dogs will be barking this week.
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The Eagles didn’t look good in beating the Patriots last week, which will change here. They are back home and have a game to get the rust off. The Vikings lost to the Bucs at home in a game where they moved the ball, but just turned it over too much. This is a prime-time game, which isn’t good for Kirk Cousins. Eagles big.
Pick: Eagles 30, Vikings 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Both of these teams are undefeated after the first week — and both showed well. The Packers are playing consecutive road games, which isn’t easy. But they are the better team. The defense will limit the Atlanta offense, while Jordan Love will continue to play well. The Packers get to 2-0.
Pick: Packers 27, Falcons 21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bills are playing on a short week, but they will be fuming after blowing the Monday game to the Jets. Look for Josh Allen to bounce back in a big way at home against the Raiders. He will throw for 340 yards and three touchdowns to quiet his critics as the Bills get back on track.
Pick: Bills 33, Raiders 23
Well, well, well … it looks like the SportsLine Projection Model agrees with me that the Bills will have a big bounce-back game against the Raiders. However, it’s showing an even bigger edge on the total, so head on over to Sportsline to see which side has all of the value.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bengals are coming off a horrible showing in their opener, one in which Joe Burrow looked bad. That will change here. The Bengals will get the offense going here. The Ravens have some injury issues on the offensive line, which could be a problem. The division games are always tough, but I don’t see Cincinnati going 0-2 to start this season like it did in 2022.
Pick: Bengals 27, Ravens 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Lions impressed in their opening road victory over the Chiefs, while the Seahawks were bad in losing at home to the Rams. They also have some offensive line injuries to keep an eye on that will impact this game. The Lions will get after Geno Smith, and Jared Goff will put up some good numbers as Detroit goes to 2-0.
Pick: Lions 29. Seahawks 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a battle of two rookie quarterbacks who didn’t play well last week. Anthony Richardson had some moments for the Colts, but not enough. C.J. Stroud was bad. But he’s back home here, and I think that will help get him going. The Texans take it.
Pick: Texans 19, Colts 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a tough road game for Kansas City after not playing well in the opener. They will have Chris Jones back, and that matters. The Jaguars had problems on the interior of the offensive line last week, which is big against Jones. But I think Trevor Lawrence and the offense will play much better than a week ago. This is a shootout. Jaguars win a close one.
Pick: Jaguars 31, Chiefs 30
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Bucs are playing their home opener after a tough road victory at Minnesota. Chicago was awful in its home loss to the Packers. That will carry over here. The Chicago defense has issues, which Baker Mayfield will take advantage of to get the Bucs to 2-0.
Pick: Bucs 28, Bears 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chargers are coming off a horrible defensive showing, while the Titans are coming off a terrible offensive showing. Something has to give. I think the Chargers defense will play better against a bad offensive line. That will lead to turnovers again for the Titans and short fields, which Justin Herbert will take advantage of with his arm. Chargers take it.
Pick: Chargers 25, Titans 17
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Giants are coming off a terrible showing at home in getting shut out by the Cowboys. Now they face a tough trip west to play the Cardinals, who showed well in their opener. The Cardinals had six sacks, which is not good for a Giants line that was brutalized against Dallas. This is now a tougher game for the Giants than expected. The Cardinals hang around.
Pick: Giants 23, Cardinals 21
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The 49ers looked like the best team in the league last week when they blew out the Steelers on the road. Now they are back out on the road against a division foe that pulled an upset last week. The Rams will hang around in a lot of games this season because of Sean McVay — and this will be one of them. The 49ers will win, but it will be closer than expected.
Pick: 49ers 24, Rams 22
New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This will be Zach Wilson starting for the Jets after Aaron Rodgers went down for the season against the Bills. All he gets is to face a nasty defense that was as good as any last week. That Cowboys front will pose big problems for the Jets offensive line. The Jets defense will have to keep them in this one, but the offense will give Dallas short fields, which it will take advantage of to score points.
Pick: Cowboys 26, Jets 13
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Commanders won last week, but didn’t look good doing so. Denver lost at home to the Raiders. The problem with the Denver offense was they didn’t drive the ball down the field. That will be challenging here against a good Washington defense. The Commanders struggled to protect last week, but the Broncos aren’t a great pass-rush team. That will allow Sam Howell to play better. Commanders take it.
Pick: Commanders 23, Broncos 17
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (+2.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
Miami is coming off a high-flying offensive victory against the Chargers. Tua Tagovailoa was outstanding in that game. The Patriots lost to the Eagles, but the defense played well. That defense will keep them in this game as they slow down the high-flying Dolphins to win it late. Upset special.
Pick: Patriots 24, Dolphins 23
Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)
The Saints come in at 1-0, while the Panthers lost to the Falcons last week. Bryce Young struggled and now faces a Saints defense that picked off Ryan Tannehill three times. Young will struggle again, while Derek Carr plays well. Saints get to 2-0.
Pick: Saints 24, Panthers 16
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)
The Browns are playing on the road this week after a big home win, while the Steelers are trying to shed the horrible showing against the 49ers last week. They were dominated. The Browns defense was impressive in the victory over the Bengals, while the Steelers offense really struggled last week. That carries over as the Browns get to 2-0.
Pick: Browns 23, Steelers 17
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Author: Pete Prisco
September 18, 2023 | 7:21 pm
