The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots will begin AFC East play when the division-rivals collide on Sunday Night Football at Gillette Stadium. The Dolphins (1-0) started the season with a wild 36-24 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in arguably the most entertaining game in Week 1. The game featured seven lead changes, 60 combined first downs, 70 combined points and 969 total yards. The Patriots (0-1) dropped their season opener to the Eagles, 25-20. With the defeat, New England has lost three straight season-openers for the first time since 1992-94.
Kickoff is 8:20 p.m. ET. Miami is a 3-point favorite in the latest Dolphins vs. Patriots odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 46.5. Before making any Patriots vs. Dolphins picks or NFL predictions, you need to see the NFL betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 163-114 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 17-7 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has zeroed in on Dolphins vs. Patriots and locked in another confident against-the-spread pick. You can see the model’s pick only at SportsLine. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Dolphins:
- Dolphins vs. Patriots spread: Dolphins -3
- Dolphins vs. Patriots over/under: 46.5 points
- Dolphins vs. Patriots money line: Dolphins -165, Patriots +140
- MIA: WR Tyreek Hill leads the NFL in receiving yards (215)
- NE: QB Mac Jones ranks fourth in the league in passing yards (316)
- Dolphins vs. Patriots picks: See picks here
- Dolphins vs. Patriots live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why the Dolphins can cover
Tua Tagovailoa has had success in his career against Bill Belichick and the Patriots. The lefty quarterback is a perfect 4-0 in his career against Belichick and New England, completing 68.5% of his passes over those four games. Tagovailoa can become just the second quarterback to ever beat Belichick in five straight starts, joining the Steelers‘ Neil O’Donnell, who beat the coach six straight times from 1993-95.
In addition, Miami faces a Patriots offense that allowed quarterback Mac Jones to be pressured last week. In last Sunday’s loss to the Eagles, Jones was sacked twice and pressured on 35.7% of his dropbacks. That bodes well for a Dolphins pass rush that had three sacks last week against the Chargers. See which team to pick here.
Why the Patriots can cover
New England has arguably the best pass-rushing duo in the league in Matthew Judon and Josh Uche. The two have combined for 29 sacks since the 2022 season, the most by any duo in the NFL. Judon and Uche registered a sack last week against the Eagles.
In addition, the Patriots have done a good job of containing Tyreek Hill recently. Including the playoffs, they have not allowed Hill to reach 100 receiving yards in each of his last five games against them. In those games, Hill has averaged just 63.4 receiving yards a game and caught just one touchdown total. See which team to pick here.
How to make Dolphins vs. Patriots picks
Now, the model has broken down Patriots vs. Dolphins from every angle. The model is leaning Under the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 43 points. It also says one side of the spread cashes in over 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s NFL playoff picks and analysis at SportsLine.
So who wins Patriots vs. Dolphins in Week 2, and which side of the spread hits in over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Dolphins spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
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Author: CBS Sports Staff
September 16, 2023 | 11:15 am
