Week 2 in the NFL kicks off from Philadelphia where the Eagles will play host to the Vikings in a showdown between two NFC playoff hopefuls. These clubs came out on different sides in the Week 1 opener. The Eagles edged out a win on the road against the Patriots, while Minnesota was upset by the Buccaneers in its home opener.
Here, we’re going to take a look at this game from a gambling perspective. We’ll look at the line movement leading up to Thursday, the total, and dive into a handful of player props. Before we do, let’s make sure you know how to watch this prime-time head-to-head.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Thursday, Sept. 14 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
Stream: Amazon Prime Video
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Eagles -6, O/U 49
Injury report
Line movement
The line opened at Eagles -7 and did jump up to Eagles -7.5 before recent action moved it down to Eagles -6.5 on Sept. 13 and continued to plunge to Eagles -6 the morning of this game.
The pick: Vikings +6. I liked this a lot better when we were getting the full touchdown (shop around to see if that number is still out there), but I do think Minnesota can keep this close. While there will be much talk about Kirk Cousins struggling in prime time, he’s actually played well on Thursday throughout his tenure with the Vikings. Cousins is 3-1 SU and ATS with the Vikings on Thursday games and averages 305.3 yards per game to go along with eight total touchdowns to just three interceptions. While they came out on the losing end in their opener against Tampa Bay, I thought their defense showed improvement as well. Meanwhile, the Eagles looked a bit rusty against New England. That’ll soon be shaken off and they’ll turn back into a prime Super Bowl contender, but the short week has me leaning toward putting the two field goals in my pocket and looking for Minnesota to make a handful of plays to keep Philadelphia within range.
Over/Under: 49
This total opened at 48 and was quick to jump up to 48.5. As of Sept. 13, the total has jockeyed around 49.5 and 49.
The pick: Over 49. Philadelphia will be without corner James Bradberry for this head-to-head, which will leave the secondary a bit thin as it takes on superstar wideout Justin Jefferson and first-round rookie Jordan Addison. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts has 27 total touchdowns to just five total turnovers in his last 11 home games. Slight lean on the over here.
If you aren’t comfortable with my take on this prime-time matchup, maybe you should give R.J. White a chance to win you some money. He’s our gambling guru over at SportsLine.com and he’s been on roll with his Vikings predictions, going 56-31-4 on his last 91 picks, which means he has an absurd .626 hit rate with his Vikings picks. If you want to check out White’s pick, you can do that here.
Kirk Cousins props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -117, Under (-117)
Passing yards: 265.5 (Over -129, Under -106)
Passing attempts: 37.5 (Over -131, Under -104)
Passing completions: 24.5 (Over -125, Under -109)
Longest passing completion: 36.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -125, Under -109)
Rushing yards: 3.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
If Minnesota is going to keep this close, Cousins will have to throw early and often. As we mentioned, he has averaged 305.5 passing yards per game during Thursday games since joining the Vikings. He also averaged more passing yards per game on the road (268.3) than at home (266.8) last season. With the Eagles secondary a bit thin, Cousins has some success through the air.
Jalen Hurts props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -145, Under +106)
Passing yards: 249.5 (Over -119, Under -115)
Passing attempts: 31.5 (Over -135, Under -101)
Passing completions: 21.5 (Over -109, Under -125)
Longest passing completion: 38.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
Interceptions: 0.5 (+146, Under -204)
Rushing yards: 46.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
As we noted above in the total, Hurts has a nose for the end zone at home. In his last 11 games at Lincoln Financial Field, he’s scored a touchdown in some capacity 27 times. Last season, he averaged two passing touchdowns per game at home, so we’ll ride with that trend here and go over his passing touchdown prop of 1.5.
Props to consider
Jordan Addison total receiving yards: Over 39.5 (-117). All of the attention will be paid to Jefferson in this game. With a depleted secondary thanks to All-Pro corner Bradberry ruled out for this matchup, the trickle-down effect of Philadelphia putting in its top talent to slow down Jefferson should open up opportunities for Addison, who went over this total in his NFL debut last week with 61 receiving yards.
Alexander Mattison total receiving yards: Over 15.5 (-111). Last week the Eagles allowed Patriots backs to catch 13 of their 16 targets for 87 yards. In the opening loss to Tampa Bay, Cousins looked Mattison’s way four times and he came up with three catches, including a touchdown. With that volume, I think he can get over this short number even if those throws are at or behind the LOS.
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Author: Tyler Sullivan
September 14, 2023 | 7:45 am
