The NFL is back and the Week 1 NFL schedule is shaping up to be one of the most tightly-contested in recent history, with 15 of 16 games featuring NFL spreads of seven points or fewer. That would make it the most Week 1 games with NFL lines inside seven points since 2010 (zero), but Ravens vs. Texans is also the first Week 1 matchup with a double-digit spread since 2019. Baltimore is a 10-point favorite over Houston at home in the NFL odds, while Bears vs. Packers has the smallest spread of the week with Chicago favored by one, making for plenty of tough decisions for NFL bets. Before you make any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 163-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 17-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of this season.
The model ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has locked in five confident NFL best bets for Week 1. If you successfully parlay its picks, you’d be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model’s Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine.
Top Week 1 NFL picks
After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the San Francisco 49ers (-2) to cover on the road over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh had a top-10 defense in 2022 and won six of its final seven games, but the offense sputtered, ranking 26th in scoring (18.1 points per game) and 23rd in total offense (322.6 yards per game).
Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett only threw seven touchdowns against nine interceptions in 12 starts during his rookie season. San Francisco led the NFL in scoring defense (16.3 points per game) and total defense (300.6 yards per game) and reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa could wreak havoc against an offensive line that ranked 15th in pressures per drop-back (19.4%) last season.
The model is predicting that the Steelers struggle to produce 300 yards of total offense and the 49ers limit the home team to just 17 points on average. San Francisco covers in well over 50% of simulations, making them a team you can confidently back in your Week 1 NFL parlays. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.
How to make Week 1 NFL parlays
The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including a pair of underdogs that have a chance to win outright. You can only see the model’s NFL Week 1 best bets and parlay at SportsLine.
What are the model’s top Week 1 NFL picks? And which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on a 163-113 run on its top-rated picks, and find out.
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Author: CBS Sports Staff
September 7, 2023 | 10:07 am
