The 2021 NFL Draft class of quarterbacks saw five selected in the first half of the opening round — only three are set to start by their third season.
Let’s look back at these quarterbacks as prospects, pinpoint what they must improve, how their strengths can be maximized and formulate a projection for their third seasons, factoring in supporting casts.
To check out my outlook for the this year’s rookie class of quarterbacks, click here. For the 2022 class outlook, click right here.
How he’s improved
The original idea of this section was to spot marked improvement from the passer’s days as a prospect, and yeah, with Lawrence, that’d be a significant challenge given his not-since-Andrew-Luck blend of NFL readiness and athletic upside.
Instead, I’ll redirect to Lawrence’s Year 2 improvement from a stunningly bad rookie campaign under the inattentive eye of Urban Meyer. I’ve watched and evaluated all of Lawrence’s dropbacks through two professional campaigns, and every coach out there will be giving a reassuring smile reading Lawrence’s second-season leap started with the fundamentals and not airmailing the layups. As a rookie, Lawrence completed 76.1% of his throws either behind the line of scrimmage or up to 9 yards beyond it. Sounds good right? Not really. That number jumped to 81.9%, a sizable difference on the easy, schemed-open throws. He played with more poise on intermediate lasers and, as is the case for most at least decently talented quarterbacks, Lawrence’s pocket presence developed. He looked very close to Clemson Lawrence in 2022 after being unrecognizable as a rookie.
Supporting cast
You know how a lot of people think the Meyer experiment may have been the worst of its kind in NFL history? I see that and raise that going from Meyer to Doug Pederson might be the largest jump in coaching quality for back-to-back head coach hires of all time.
Pederson’s strength lies within his keen awareness of how to tailor an offense to be extraordinarily quarterback friendly. Not only was Lawrence converting more layups, he was getting more high-percentage opportunities. Having a former NFL quarterback with vast play-calling/designing experience is, of course, massive in today’s NFL.
Personnel-wise, the Jaguars went from being the laughing stock of the league during the 2022 free agent period for overpaying for Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to fielding one of the better, veteran-heavy wideout groups in the AFC. Not elite. Not average. Calvin Ridley is the X factor, and I’m fascinated to see how he performs firstly, after a year away from football — will there be rust or freshness? — and when he doesn’t have Julio Jones running opposite him.
The offensive line isn’t spectacular. It’s sturdy enough for a strong-armed, mobile quarterback to operate well most weeks.
Improving his weaknesses
Clean pocket play is the most stable, predictive metric when tracking quarterback play. Cool. That doesn’t mean under-duress play is vastly unimportant, and Lawrence had rookie-year flashes when pressured too often in 2022. Altogether, he had four touchdowns and five picks when pressured, and his 5.9 yards-per-attempt average in that scenario ranked 19th in the NFL. It’s clear where Lawrence must improve, especially with the likes of ad-lib masters Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Justin Herbert in the conference.
Strengthening his strengths
Last season, Lawrence wasn’t identical to the Clemson version himself, but some of the familiar calmness appeared, particularly late in the season. His minuscule sack rate of 4.4% speaks to that. Lawrence quickly grasped Pederson’s offense which led to an average time to throw of 2.52 seconds, the fifth-fastest among all full-time starters. Couple Lawrence getting the ball out of his hands that rapidly with his innate desire to rip it through tight windows between 10 and 19 yards and deep down field — dangerous combination for opposing defenses.
Season outlook
If Lawrence is ever to reach his long-awaited status as a franchise-altering quarterback, it should begin this season. He’s turning 24 in October, playing in the same, time-tested system as a season ago with a fine stable of wideouts — and tight end Evan Engram. There will be some stretches in which Lawrence moves into discussion to be included the prestigious elite AFC quarterback fraternity of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.
How he’s improved
I’ll start with a qualitative observation before laying out the numbers. If I had one qualm about Fields as a prospect — and I mean one — it was his inability to consistently make anticipatory throws in Ohio State’s spoon-fed offense. Not necessarily because his mind wouldn’t allow it but because the offense didn’t need him to. Future NFL receivers running open everywhere.
Fields didn’t become Drew Brees 2.0 in 2022 in that regard. I did notice more throws to receivers who were not yet open. Yes, there were some ghastly stretches, particularly early on. As the season progressed, Fields was more calm and seemingly understood where the coverage dictated he should fire the football. Six of his 13 Big-Time Throws came in the final five contests, and he had a completion percentage of at least 65% in four of those five contests.
Supporting cast
The Bears are slowly but surely building it the right way. OK, so I wouldn’t have traded what I knew was going to be an early second-round pick for Chase Claypool last season. Beyond that, I’m down with the way GM Ryan Poles has constructed the environment around his youthful quarterback.
D.J. Moore is in the Tyler Lockett realm of ridiculously underrated NFL receivers and, vitally, is a monster after the catch, when his quarterback play is at least average, which it hadn’t been for years in Carolina. Moore forced at least 13 missed tackles in each of first three seasons as a professional.
I low-key love the vertical speed provided by established vet Darnell Mooney and what I’m calling his clone in rookie Tyler Scott. If Claypool’s head is on straight, he’s an intimidating presence on the perimeter, and Cole Kmet is one of the most reliable young tight ends in the game.
Smartly too, Pace has prioritized the offensive line. Darnell Wright was my OT1 in the 2023 class, they got a steal with Braxton Jones in the fifth round a season ago, Teven Jenkins is best at guard where he’s positioned now, and they spent in free agency on guard Nate Davis. There aren’t a litany of teams jealous of Fields’ supporting cast. It has gotten light years better in his first three seasons.
Improving his weaknesses
I don’t want to see any more reluctancy from Fields as a thrower. While I mentioned his improvement when anticipatory throws were necessary, there were still far too many instances in which he looked unsure of himself as a passer, then decided to tuck it and run. Fortunately for Fields, he’s a gazelle in the open field and cuts like a running back in space.
He now knows he can lean on his legs as a last resort, and I wouldn’t hate the Bears tapping into his athleticism as a designed runner on occasion. But Fields has to play with more tenacity and boldness as a thrower or the Bears offense will struggled to get off the ground in 2023.
Strengthening his strengths
Fields is an elite runner and will remain one, which is quite the statement in today’s NFL with an increasingly growing number of super-mobile, scramble-happy quarterbacks.
There wasn’t much from Fields as a passer in his second season that would signify a strength of his game just yet.
Season outlook
Will the lights finally flip on for Fields in Year 3? That’s one of the critical questions in a fascinating NFC North this season. While I’ll contend that Fields was better as a passer last season than his rookie campaign, the bar was end-of-a-limbo-game low. That has to be considered with his 2023 projection.
We’ll see Fields make another noticeable albeit not spectacular step forward in his third season, the Bears will be in legitimate playoff contention in the NFC — and could sneak into the playoffs — but it’ll be another year before Fields is widely regarded as Chicago’s long-term franchise quarterback.
How he’s improved
I don’t think he has. From his days at Alabama, nor from his first season with the Patriots. Jones is who he is. While I could point to a collection of advanced statistics or give thoughts on his two opening seasons in the NFL, he came into the league as a relatively high-floor prospect with minimal upside, and that’s what he’s been to date entering his Year 3.
Supporting cast
The Patriots, well, they don’t have a true No.1 receiver yet they signed Ezekiel Elliott to back up stud Rhamondre Stevenson despite drafting two backs in 2022 and signing Ty Montgomery this offseason. Now, Kendrick Bourne can play. Solid player. Devante Parker high-points it outstandingly, and we know JuJu Smith-Schuster can be a steady chain-mover from the slot. Tyquan Thornton is the only pass catcher with upside given his height and speed combination.
Hunter Henry is a shade past his prime yet capable of a handful of productive weeks, and the offensive line is a little above average. There’s legitimately no way to know if returned offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien is a smart play-caller or not, because his most decorated seasons came with Tom Brady throwing passes. I will say, he has to be better than the seemingly doomed-from-the-start duo of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge from a season ago.
Improving his weaknesses
By today’s athletic standards at the quarterback position, Jones is a statue in the pocket. Also by today’s arm-strength standards, Jones’ arm is average at its very best. I’m not sure, even at the ripe age of 25 (in September), those two glaring weaknesses to his game can improve any more than a negligible amount.
Strengthening his strengths
Jones has proven to be a capable passer when he’s undeterred in the pocket. Last season in those situations, he threw 11 touchdowns to just three interceptions, and his Adjusted Completion Percentage of 79.3% when kept clean ranked 12th among quarterbacks. In short, a stellar season from New England’s blocking unit would go a long way in maximizing Jones’ strength as a methodical and accurate passer.
Season outlook
I didn’t see it with Jones as a prospect. Even in what became a buzzed-about rookie season, I didn’t see it. And I saw the same quarterback in 2022. While perfectly capable of managing the playbook and typically making the correct decisions with a quick release and quality ball placement, Jones’ athletic and physical deficiencies will likely continue to hold him and the Patriots offense back this season. I’d be much more optimistic about the third NFL season for the former first-round pick if New England built more receiving weaponry around him.
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Author: Chris Trapasso
August 17, 2023 | 9:00 am
