Happy Wednesday, folks. We’re just one day away from Week 2 of the 2023 preseason, which means we’re also one week closer to the real games beginning! John Breech is still taking some time off to prepare for another Bengals Super Bowl bid, so you’ve got me, Cody Benjamin, to deliver all the latest from around the NFL.
This is the Pick Six newsletter. Now let’s get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you’re signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don’t want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)
We’ve got preseason standouts, reasons to bet on the Dolphins, concern about the Jets‘ O-line, and more:
- Today’s show: NFC North, NFC South win totals, predictions, previews
Will Brinson, Brady Quinn and Leger Douzable teamed up on the latest “Pick Six NFL Podcast” to assess arguably two of the most wide-open divisions in football. Some highlights:
- Quinn believes the Vikings are widely underrated, crowning them the top team of the North going into 2023, anticipating a big contract year from Kirk Cousins and projecting as many as 10 wins for the reigning division champs
- Brinson wonders if we’re buying a little too much into the Bears‘ improvement, and while Douzable agrees, suggesting Chicago could lose four of six division games, he’s still taking the Over on 7.5 wins because of their offensive upgrades
- Quinn is “cautiously optimistic” on the Lions, mostly because of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s chemistry with Jared Goff
Catch the full episode (and subscribe for all kinds of daily NFL talk) right here.
2. Top camp standouts: Vaughn, Smith-Njigba among biggest movers
Believe it or not, we’re pushing toward the halfway mark of the 2023 preseason. Which players have made the most noise in practice and exhibition action up to this point? Tyler Sullivan has identified eight of summer’s biggest winners, and all but one of them are rookies, suggesting we could be in for some elite debut performances:
3. Preseason Week 2 schedule: Top matchups on deck
It’s officially time for more preseason football. Bryan DeArdo has assembled a complete rundown of Week 2 matchups, which begin Thursday and have an added level of intrigue in comparison to the first week:
The NFL’s second preseason week is unique in that it is the longest week on the league’s calendar. Week 2 of the preseason will include at least one game for five consecutive days, starting with the Browns facing the Eagles on Thursday and running through Monday night’s prime-time game between the Ravens and Commanders.
Among the big storylines this week are whether or not Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook will make their respective debuts with their new teams. Elliott recently signed with the New England Patriots following a successful seven-year run with the Cowboys. Cook signed with the Jets this week after being a Pro Bowler during each of his last four seasons with the Vikings.
4. Aaron Rodgers, Robert Saleh frustrated by Jets offensive line
“Hard Knocks” returned Tuesday night, and for the most part, it was a pleasant affair, with the Jets still living large in the wake of Rodgers’ arrival and accompanying title aspirations. But a common conflict emerged in Episode 2: Rodgers’ protection, or lack thereof. Not only did the quarterback express some dissatisfaction with his center’s snaps at practice, but his head coach all but questioned the entire line’s effort after a poor joint practice with the Panthers, underscoring justified concerns about the ability of New York’s front to keep Rodgers upright: “(Nothing) f—ing matters until the big boys up front change who the f— we are,” Saleh scolded in a meeting. “We as coaches, we as an organization, can’t want it more than you.”
5. What history tells us about potential Dolphins, Jets, Lions turnarounds
There might not be three teams with more collective hype going into 2023. And yet, as resident historian Douglas Clawson points out, we tend to contextualize their upside with a “yeah, but …” knowing that, at least recently, neither the Dolphins nor the Jets nor the Lions have been trustworthy as playoff contenders. Does that mean their fans should give up hope? Not yet! Clawson decided to dig into the numbers and found that, generally speaking, hype doesn’t always equal a letdown.
I looked at every team in the last three decades with an Over/Under win total of at least nine (so they were expected to be a winning team) and a playoff win drought stretching at least 10 seasons. These are your teams like this year’s Lions, Jets and Dolphins. Big hype with big baggage. Twenty-nine teams met that criteria. Twelve went under their Over/Under win total, 11 went Over and six pushed. In other words, there was really no correlation between how often they matched the hype, or fell flat on their faces per usual. Nine of those 29 teams actually won a playoff game. Four reached the Super Bowl and one even won it.
6. Extra point: Dolphins’ Wilkins holding in, Ravens fight Commanders, more
Hungry for more headlines? Here you go:
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Author: Cody Benjamin
August 16, 2023 | 1:47 pm
