Ranking active NFL QBs by Hall of Fame chances: 9 veterans who could be enshrined down the road

Quarterbacks may run the NFL, but it’s been two years since a signal-caller entered the Pro Football Hall of Fame, with Peyton Manning the last great gunslinger to be enshrined. During his acceptance speech, Manning joked about the future induction of a fellow all-timer in Tom Brady, who retired (for a second time) this offseason. It got us thinking: which of today’s QBs are actually destined for a gold jacket?

Here are the active QBs we foresee as Hall of Fame candidates once they’ve hung up the cleats:

Stone-cold locks

Rodgers literally has six fewer titles than Brady, but he’s been every bit, if not more, star-caliber than his Hall of Fame Packers predecessor, Brett Favre. He may be past his MVP prime approaching 40, but after relocating to the Jets, he’s got a chance to make a late-stage revival a la Brady with the Buccaneers. Even if he doesn’t, he’s already proven himself as a generational field general with four MVPs, a career 103.6 passer rating (No. 2 all-time) and the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in NFL history.

In almost any other scenario, it would be insane to safely predict a Hall of Fame induction after just five seasons as a starter. But Mahomes is otherworldly. Not only because of his effortless acrobatics but historic early-career deliverance. Going on 28, he’s already won two MVPs and two Super Bowl MVPs, led the league with 50 TD passes and guided five straight AFC Championship appearances. He sets an unreachable standard for contemporary quarterbacking, and he might still just be getting started.

On the fence

Like Rodgers, the former Seahawks star should probably have more than one ring by now, considering the MVP-level heights he once enjoyed. His 10-year track record in Seattle can’t be ignored. Missing just three starts during that time, he still holds the third-best TD:INT ratio in NFL history, as well as the third-most career rushing yards by any QB. For a while, he was a feared, premier dual threat. And yet, after driving a trade to the Broncos in 2022, he was listless in his Denver debut. If he doesn’t rebound under new coach Sean Payton, it’s possible his earlier success will be more heavily attributed to the Seahawks’ long-stingy defense.

Premature possibilities

Allen’s still searching for his first AFC title, but the Bills haven’t missed the playoffs since he became a full-time starter, and he’s had three straight seasons with 4,200+ yards and 35+ TDs, all while approaching the top 10 all-time list for QB rushing yards. He’s the closest thing to Mahomes in terms of total-package play-making; he just needs the big-game results.

Durability is an underrated concern with Burrow once again entering a season while recovering from injury, but it’s hard to top his early-career track record as a clutch pocket passer. At 26, after just three years, he’s already led two AFC Championship bids with casual MVP-level numbers. Mahomes’ chief AFC rival, he’s got the composure to contend for the long haul.

His career passing marks are far from gaudy, but Hurts’ meteoric 2022 rise from tough runner to MVP-level superstar ended with a historic Super Bowl shootout against Mahomes. Just 25 with poise and wisdom beyond his years, he may need to restrain his own physicality to stay healthy, but all the tools — both mental and otherwise — are there for Hurts to be a long-term difference-maker.

He’s got lots to prove in terms of durability and passing consistency. But the sheer electricity of Jackson’s legs have him No. 5 all-time in QB rushing at just 26, with Michael Vick’s top spot very much within reach. He’s also 45-16 as a starter, never once guiding a losing record while under center. If he can stay on the field and get over the hump, the talent is there to shatter records.

You need big-time wins to warrant true HOF consideration, and even more than Allen and Jackson, he’s still hunting for those. But 94 TDs in three years is a heck of a start, and he’s got the prototypical size and arm to sustain his production. The Chargers don’t dare sniff the playoffs without his young talent; now it’s a matter of making the leap from really good to truly feared.

Long shots

You might lump him in with Wilson as “on the fence,” considering his big arm finally led to a Super Bowl win while paired with an all-star Rams lineup in 2021. But the consistency has never really been there, despite the longtime Lions QB breaking passing records before historic aerial numbers became the norm. He’s 89-101-1 for his career, had six seasons with a passer rating below 90, and made just a single Pro Bowl. He also enters 2023 coming off injuries and surrounded by a rebuilding cast.