2023 NFL Awards predictions: DPOY offers great long-shot odds, Christian McCaffrey the go-to for OPOY

Thanks to the widespread proliferation of legalized sports betting, we’ve seen an explosion of available markets in terms of NFL awards. Which is fantastic because the MVP market is, as I noted while highlighting some favorites, mid-tier picks and long shots last week, quite the mess due to longer shots winning the award several times in the last few years. 

Specifically, the Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year Award markets give us much more viable long shots to land a winner. 

For years, OPOY was either 1) the MVP runner-up or 2) the unanimous MVP’s double dip. But over the last four years, it feels like something’s changed in that regard, with voters deciding to reward skill-position players who have massive seasons. One thing standing out over the last four years — all of Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Derrick Henry and Michael Thomas were in years three through five and went nuclear performance wise. 

In terms of DPOY, it’s usually either 1) Aaron Donald, 2) one of the Watt brothers, 3) whoever has the most sacks, 4) a wildly dominant defensive back season or 5) some combo of the first four. But we may have uncovered an interesting trend that’s worth exploring in terms of this market. 

Let’s see if we can find some good bets in the various arbitrary ranges I’ve assigned. 

Offensive Player of the Year

Best top bet: Christian McCaffrey (11-1)

Just because you’re the chalk doesn’t mean you can’t win something. Golfers like Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler (he belongs to myself and my good buddy Link Calhoun, imagine not following him) routinely win as favorites. CMC is the favorite this year to win an award that is largely arbitrary but the number isn’t suppressed the way MVP odds have become. Instead, CMC is over 10-1 everywhere despite looking like the best offensive weapon in the NFL multiple times over the past five years. He was written off as “injury prone” with the Panthers because he got asked to do way too much usage-wise by a coaching staff under an immense amount of pressure. Take out his first game with the Niners (short week) and he was on pace for nearly a 2,000 yard scrimmage season with 13 touchdowns. He had 63 targets in 10 games with San Francisco last year. If CMC plays 15 games and the Niners QB situation is remotely competent, he’s winning this award. 

Best midrange options: Austin Ekeler (40-1), CeeDee Lamb (35-1)

This number for Ekeler is surprisingly long — when we’re talking about elite, under-appreciated NFL players impacting important NFL teams with legit playoff chances, Ekeler should be at the top of the list. He’s led the league in total touchdowns the last two years while averaging 913 rushing yards and 685 receiving yards over that stretch. What if Kellen Moore’s offense unlocks him as an actually-featured better version of Tony Pollard? Add in the “running backs are getting hosed contractually” narrative and this is an easy look given the talent, the usage and the recent production.

If you want to go more upside, Lamb is an easy pick too. We’ve seen three wide receivers win this award in the last four years. It’s clearly a voter pivot and we should take advantage of it. Lamb would be much lower if the Cowboys were yeehaw’ing about tossing the ball around this year. Mike McCarthy’s comments about his old OC (Kellen Moore, irony is fun!) and the Dallas offensive plan is drawing tons of attention. McCarthy calling plays could end up in Lamb getting alpha status from Dak Prescott — the No. 1 wideouts in Green Bay flourished when McCarthy was calling plays. Lamb already averaged 90+ catches, 1,230 yards and eight touchdowns over the last two seasons. If his usage spikes he’s a prime candidate to win here. 

Best long shot: Calvin Ridley (60-1)

Ridley jokes are too easy/lazy on social media — this guy went for 1,374 yards in his final full season with the Falcons. I don’t blame Atlanta for moving on given the gambling stigma, but if the Jaguars are a high-octane offense, Ridley will be a massive factor. The trickle-down effect (shoutout voodoo economics) of Ridley as the No. 1 in Jacksonville and Christian Kirk as the No. 2 will be massive for Trevor Lawrence. For Ridley, there’s a redemption factor and him becoming a 135+ target guy for Lawrence in a Doug Pederson offense. A usage uptick from his final Falcons season plus a jump for Sunshine puts this firmly in play. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Best top bet: Haason Reddick (22-1)

My next pick would go here, but he’s somehow drifted to the point I get to tell you it’s time to check out the Pick Six Podcast. Katie Mox, myself and our new BFF Alex aka PropStarz talked about our favorite future bets for the season less than a fortnight ago (listen to the full episode here,’scribe, rate and review) and Alex sold me on Reddick at this number and for the local guy to have the most sacks in the NFL. His pressure numbers are fantastic and if the defensive shift works out how it could, Reddick might be in line for a monster season. The Eagles will be very good, near the top of the NFC, and he’ll benefit from that PR bump. I have no problem with Nick Bosa here either, he’s just 11-1 and I’ll take Reddick at double the odds. 

Best midrange option: Aaron Donald (26-1)

This is a bad number. Donald has won this award three times, making him the default go-to if he has a great season and no one else really stands out. I’m not going to linger on this because it’s just too obvious — Donald and J.J. Watt (shoutout to my new CBS colleague!) are two of the five greatest defensive players in the history of the NFL and you’re getting better odds than Justin Fields to win MVP. The only caveat here is players on bad teams don’t win this award: Jason Taylor of the Dolphins was the last winner under nine wins in 2006. Michael Strahan won the award with the Giants in 2001 prior — you simply don’t win DPOY on a bad team. If you think the Rams will stink, don’t bet Donald. 

Best long shot(s): Bradley Chubb (50-1)

This is where everyone should live on this award right now, because there are legitimate pass rushers on good teams available. It’s hard to discern actual signal because of Watt/Donald, but by and large it’s a pass rusher party for this award outside of Stephon Gilmore (weird year) and Luke Kuechly (the last remaining vestige of MLB from Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher winning this award). Follow the sacks and follow the team wins if you want to cash, which makes this pretty easy. Bradley Chubb could go off for the Dolphins in a Vic Fangio defense (and no, you’re the biased NC State guy, but at 50-1 it’s a no-brainer move). Von Miller (60-1) isn’t worth a heavy investment only because the Bills won’t cut him loose early but these awards are soaked in recency bias and Miller could start cooking down the stretch and his price is great for a premier pass rusher on a 10+ win team. Chase Young (60-1) is playing for a contract and if he goes off while Washington wins 9-10 games he’ll be firmly in the mix. Trey Hendrickson (80-1) is similarly mis-priced for a top-end pass rusher on a potentially elite team. A DPOY card should really just be Donald and these pass rushers — the market hasn’t squeezed the value out like MVP.