Overvalue can have many different meanings in the NFL. Is a player relied on too much? Is that player overpaid and not living up to the “value” of their contract?
The definition of overvalue, according to Merriam-Webster, is “to assign an excessive value to” or “to value too highly — place too much importance on.” This depends on how an NFL team can overvalue players.
There’s always a player the team believes in too highly — even though conventional wisdom shows the team can improve at that position. Of course, there’s also that player a team relies on too much to win football games and advance deep in the playoffs.
How will these overvalued players be determined? These players will go by the definition, the players teams put “too much importance on” to win football games. Not all these players are quarterbacks, as teams certainly are too dependent on players who reside on the other side of the football.
These are the most overvalued players on each NFC team as the 2023 season approaches. (To see the most overvalued players on each AFC team, click here.)
The Cardinals don’t have many options on offense, but really don’t have anything at running back other than Conner. Having a cap number of $9,445,000 for 2023, the Cardinals couldn’t do much to add any secondary help for Conner, relying on Corey Clement and Ty’Son Williams to backup the RB1.
Conner had 792 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022 (4.3 yards per carry) and has 22 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons. The Cardinals are relying heavily on Conner to carry the running game, which is a lot to ask for one player at that position.
Name two other wide receivers on the Falcons outside of London. That’s an answer that requires some thinking, given the lack of depth at the position.
London is a good receiver, as the top 10 draft pick from 2022 caught 72 passes for 866 yards and four touchdowns in his rookie year. He was clearly the No. 1 wide receiver on the Falcons, and the most consistent pass catcher with Kyle Pitts struggling.
The Falcons have Mack Hollins and Scott Miller to complement London, putting a lot of pressure on a second-year receiver to perform. With Desmond Ridder as a first-year starting quarterback, the heat is on London to be a No. 1 wideout every week.
Burns is one of the top pass rushers in the NFL. A second consecutive Pro Bowl trip was well deserved, as Burns recorded his first double-digit sack season (12.5), tied for eighth in the NFL. His 68 pressures tied for 10th in the league. Burns finished with 22 quarterback hits and a 13.7% pressure rate last season. He also was tied for seventh in the NFL in tackles for loss (17). So why is Burns overvalued?
Burns was by far the most productive pass rusher on the Panthers, the only one lined up on the defensive line to have over five sacks in 2022. Marquis Haynes finished with five sacks and Yetur Gross-Matos finished with 2.5.
The Panthers were 25th in sacks last season with 35, so 35.7% of the sacks came from Burns. DeShaun Williams should help, but he’s not a massive upgrade.
The Bears are another team that have problems getting to the quarterback, as their 20 sacks were last in the NFL last year. Jaquan Brisker — a safety — was the team leader in sacks (four), while Gipson had three.
Chicago didn’t do much to improve the pass rush this offseason in free agency, but added interior help in the draft with Zacch Pickens and Gervon Dexter. Gipson is still the best pass rusher on the line, as the Bears are relying on him to repeat the seven sacks he had in 2021.
Another pass rusher on the edge would help Gipson be more productive. Yannick Ngakoue is still out there.
The Cowboys have been banking on Smith’s health for years, yet 2023 appears to be a crucial year for one of the top left tackles over the past decade. A torn hamstring and avulsion fracture of the left knee limited Smith to just four games last season, hurting the depth of the Cowboys offensive line as Tyler Smith had to move to left tackle.
The move hurt the depth at left guard, which is even more prevalent now that Connor McGovern left in free agency. The Cowboys are banking on Smith, who has played in just 17 out of 50 games over the last three years, to play the bulk of the season at left tackle.
That’s a hard task for a 32-year-old left tackle who has played 12 seasons in the NFL. The Cowboys have insurance if Smith goes down, but the offensive line is significantly stronger with both Smiths lined up next to each other.
With Jameson Williams suspended and D.J. Chark departing in free agency, St. Brown is the most reliable receiver on the Lions depth chart. He’ll have a tall task early in the season with Williams out, although having a veteran presence in Marvin Jones and Josh Reynolds will help.
St. Brown should be able to handle the pressure early in the year. He caught 106 passes for 1,161 yards and six touchdowns in 2022, becoming just the third player in Lions history aged 23 or younger to have a 1,000-yard season. Not only is St. Brown the youngest player in franchise history to produce a 100-catch season, but he’s just the third player in NFL history to log at least 90 catches in the first two seasons of his career — joining Michael Thomas and Odell Beckham Jr.
Will St. Brown have enough pass catchers to help him out until Williams returns? That’s what the Lions are banking on early in the season. St. Brown is good enough to produce, but having another pass catcher step up will make his job easier.
When healthy, Bakhtiari is one of the best left tackles in football. Problem is, those days are few and far between.
The Packers have banked on Bakhtiari to anchor an offensive line that is a top 10 unit when he plays. Bakhtiari is still very good when he’s on the field as he allowed just one sack and 10 pressures in 323 pass-blocking snaps last season. He also allowed no quarterback hits and had a 3.1% pressure rate allowed per dropback.
Green Bay is better when Bakhtiari is at left tackle and Elgton Jenkins is at left guard, the combination they are hoping for in 2023. Another injury riddled season and the Packers will be forced to move on from Bakhtiari with a $40,583,017 cap number incoming.
How can one of the best defensive players ever be overvalued? When the team he plays for relies on him to carry a pass rush that is nonexistent when he’s off the field.
The Rams let Leonard Floyd walk this offseason, leaving Donald on an island to beat interior offensive linemen. This is a year after Donald came off a career low in pressures (40), sacks (five) and quarterback hits (11) — while playing just 11 games.
Donald is still good, but who is helping him get to the quarterback consistently? Floyd and Bobby Wagner are both gone and the remainder of the projected starters on the Rams defensive line had a combined one sack last year.
Thinking Donald is going to turn back into his prime self is a risk, even if he has another All-Pro-caliber year. The Rams should have gotten another edge rusher (outside of rookie Byron Young) to help him.
Even at 34, Smith is still one of the better safeties in the league. He’s coming off a season with 85 tackles, five interceptions, 10 passes defensed and a forced fumble. Opposing quarterbacks targeting Smith had just a 54.5 passer rating against him last year, so he still can cover with the top safeties in the game.
The Vikings haven’t seemed to find quality help in the secondary with Smith this offseason. Rookie Mekhi Blackmon and Akayleb Evans are projected to start at cornerback, while Lewis Cine and Camryn Bynum will battle for a safety spot. Byron Murphy will slot at nickel.
With a new secondary and defensive coordinator in Brian Flores, that’s a lot for Smith to handle. If he goes down, the Vikings pass defense could be in major trouble.
One of the best all-around defensive ends in football, Jordan has been the definition of reliable for the Saints. He’s missed just two games in his 12-year career and has been to six consecutive Pro Bowls (eight overall). Jordan is coming off a year which he finished with 66 tackles, 8.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, 13 quarterback hits and 37 pressures.
The Saints will be asking a lot of Jordan in 2023, especially with Marcus Davenport no longer in New Orleans. Jordan will help rookies Bryan Bresee and Isaiah Foskey out, but it’s hard to bank on two high draft picks both getting a consistent pass rush in Year 1.
New Orleans is hoping Jordan has another career year in his mid 30s, which is a hit or miss for good defensive ends at that age. The Saints better hope Jordan doesn’t take a step back in 2023.
Clear as day how much the Giants depend on Barkley, and why the star running back has an upper hand in asking for more money. Just ask Daniel Jones how much better of a quarterback he is when Barkley is on the field.
Jones has 44 passing touchdowns and 17 interceptions in games Barkley plays, along with a 91.4 passer rating. He has 16 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in games Barkley doesn’t play (77.3 rating).
Barkley played in every game Jones did last season, as he finished fourth in rushing yards (1,312) and ninth in rushing touchdowns (10). He had the most rushing yards for a Giants player in a season since Tiki Barber (2006) and finished seventh in yards from scrimmage (1,650).
The Giants depend on Barkley to win games — and will need to do the same in 2023.
Both of the Eagles starting linebackers departed in free agency, leaving Dean in line to take one of those starting spots. Dean basically had a redshirt rookie season to get acclimated to the NFL, playing late in games as he was getting groomed to eventually take over a starting role in Year 2.
Dean was productive when he did play, having 13 tackles in just 34 defensive snaps last season — recording a tackle on 38.2% of the snaps he played. The Eagles saw in Dean’s limited work he can be productive when he gets an opportunity — a chance to show he can be the franchise’s long-term answer at the MIKE.
There isn’t enough depth at linebacker to support Dean. Nicholas Morrow and Christian Elliss are battling for the other starting linebacker spot, so the Eagles may need to upgrade there to help their first-year starter out. A veteran presence will take the pressure off Dean, who is expected to play at a high level right away.
Dean isn’t solving all the problems at that position.
Kittle is one of the best tight ends in the NFL — and is in the conversation with Travis Kelce for the best when he is healthy. He had just 60 catches for 865 yards in a 49ers offense filled with pass catchers, but was the top red zone target with 11 touchdowns.
While missing time due to injury, the 49ers offense just doesn’t run the same without Kittle. No coincidence the team went 10-1 once he scored his first receiving touchdown in Week 7. If Kittle goes down, Charlie Woerner is the tight end San Francisco would turn to next.
For a team that doesn’t pay a lot of money to a quarterback, figure there would be room for an upgrade to back up Kittle.
Good for the Seahawks for upgrading their interior pass rush and acquiring Jones this offseason. Who else will be there to help him out? Jones finished last season with 6.5 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, nine tackles for loss and 45 pressures — a good rusher off the edge for a defense that could use pass-rushing help.
On the defensive interior, the Seahawks don’t have much to complement Woods. Jarran Reed returning to Seattle should help, but Bryan Mone’s future is up in the air. If the Seahawks have pass-rushing help from Jones, it likely won’t be coming from the defensive interior from the current roster.
Fortunately, Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor will rush off the edge. The Seahawks could still use more depth to clog up the A- and B-gaps, relying on Jones to carry that unit so far.
Barrett has been one of the best pass rushers in the league since he arrived in Tampa Bay, but injuries slightly affected the pass rush. While Barrett had just 22 pressures and three sacks, the Buccaneers defense fell from 47 sacks in 2021 to 45 in 2022.
Can the success sustain if Barrett gets injured again? Remember this is an edge rusher who averaged 78 pressures and 12.5 sacks a year from 2019 through 2021. Vita Vea and Devin White are still in Tampa Bay, but play different positions.
Will Anthony Nelson step up as the other rusher on the edge to assist Barrett? Tampa Bay is leaning on Barrett to carry the pass rush on the edge at 30 years old.
Barrett can do it, but it would be nice if he had more help on the edge.
The Commanders have a good, young linebacker in Davis — who finished with 104 tackles and just three sacks in his second season. The coverage numbers improved in Year 2 as well, as Davis is becoming a complete player at the position.
While Washington has Davis at linebacker, the Commanders let Cole Holcomb walk in free agency. They signed Cody Barton to replace Holcomb, who had 136 tackles last year.
Washington is relying on Davis to take an even bigger step in Year 3 with a new starter at linebacker and not much depth behind him. The position has improved, but Davis is a major key to this defense sticking around as a top 10 unit.
Go to Source
Author: Jeff Kerr
July 12, 2023 | 5:38 pm
