Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
We’re going to start off today with some good news and some bad news. The bad news is that you’re going to have to pay for at least one playoff game starting this season after the NFL reached a deal with NBC to exclusively stream one wild-card game on Peacock. The good news is that it’s International Pickle Day, which is easily one of the five best holidays in the month of May.
The other good news is that we’re going to be unveiling Will Brinson’s final record predictions for every team in the NFC, so let’s get to the rundown.
As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.
1. Today’s podcast: Early picks for Week 1
Every week during the NFL season, our resident picks expert, R.J. White, joins the Pick Six Podcast to make his weekly picks. Although the start of the NFL season is still four months away, we decided we’d get White on the podcast a little early this year so he could give us some of his best bets for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Even though these games won’t be kicking off until September, it can be smart to get your bet in now because a few of these Week 1 point spreads could undergo some major changes between now and the start of the season.
With that in mind, let’s check out three of White’s best bets for Week 1:
- Bengals (-2.5) to cover against the Browns. “I rate the Browns as dead average,” White said. “I think the Bengals are right there with the Chiefs and Bills as the best teams in the AFC … This line feels low and I think it moves toward the Bengals.”
- Bills (-1) to cover against the Jets. “The Jets are getting a guy [Aaron Rodgers] past his prime, might still have a good season in him, but who knows,” White said. “I don’t think you can just take for granted that the Jets are the fourth-best team in the AFC and should be even with the Bills.” White noted that he thinks the Jets could have trouble slowing down the Bills pass rush, especially if Von Miller is playing.
- Giants (+3) to cover against the Cowboys. “I think these two teams are closer than the line implies, so I’ll trust Brian Daboll and his coaching staff to pull off the upset,” White said. “I think this game is closer to 50-50 and you’re getting good value on the Giants at plus-3 and the moneyline at +135.”
White and Will Brinson went through every single Week 1 game during the podcast and if you want to hear what their other best bets are, then be sure to click here so you can listen to today’s show. You can also watch today’s episode on YouTube by clicking here.
2. Predicting the final record for every NFC team
After handing out our AFC final record predictions yesterday, we’ll be handing out our final record prediction for every NFC team today and those predictions will once again be coming from Will Brinson. It’s been a rough 24 hours for Brinson, who is now public enemy No. 1 in Cleveland after predicting that the Browns would finish the 2023 season in last place.
Let’s get to his NFC predictions and see if he can make a fan base hate him as much as the fans in Cleveland now do:
NFC East
Cowboys: 10-7
Eagles: 10-7
Giants: 9-8
Commanders: 6-11
NFC North
Lions: 10-7
Vikings: 8-9
Packers: 6-11
Bears: 6-11
NFC South
Falcons: 10-7
Panthers: 8-9
Saints: 7-10
Buccaneers: 5-12
NFC West
49ers: 12-5
Seahawks: 9-8
Rams: 9-8
Cardinals: 3-14
Here’s what the playoffs would look like if Brinson’s predictions came true (This is a guy who picked the Eagles to go to the Super Bowl last year, so I’m not going to rule out the possibility of his predictions coming true):
Playoffs: 1. 49ers. 2. Cowboys. 3. Lions. 4. Falcons. 5. Eagles. 6. Seahawks. 7. Rams
If you want to hear Brinson fully explain each of his predictions, then you should click here so you can read his entire story.
3. One thing we learned about each NFL team this offseason
I have no idea how it happened, but every big offseason event is now in the rearview mirror: The draft is behind us, the schedule is out and free agency is mostly over. With that in mind, now seems like a good time to try and figure out what we’ve learned from each team over the past three months.
Cody Benjamin was in charge of figuring out what we’ve learned from each team, and here’s what he came up with:
- Ravens: They believe in Lamar Jackson. “After months of failed contract negotiations and a public disconnect that included the star QB airing a trade request, the Ravens turned around and extended the former MVP on a $260 million deal that reset the market.”
- Cowboys: They’re in win-now mode. “It’s not exactly a departure from the norm under Jerry Jones’ watch, but their biggest offseason moves — tagging RB Tony Pollard, trading for WR Brandin Cooks and CB Stephon Gilmore — profile as short-term rentals.”
- Dolphins: They’re putting all their chips in Tua’s health. “The young QB started 2022 with a bang, but despite multiple concussions that even prompted retirement consideration, Miami all but refused to add proven insurance for Tagovailoa, settling for ex-Jets backup Mike White as its Plan B. Everywhere else, of course, they’re playoff-ready, from an ultra-speedy WR corps to a healthier “D” now under Vic Fangio’s direction.”
- Steelers: Kenny Pickett suddenly has the tools to succeed. “After debuting behind a shoddy line in 2022, the second-year QB quietly has an improved supporting cast at every level, with Isaac Seumalo joining the trenches and Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson and TE Pat Freiermuth headlining an underrated skill group.”
If you want to see what we learned about the other 28 teams, be sure to click here so you can check out Cody’s entire story.
4. NFL TV schedule for Super Wild Card Weekend will be undergoing a major change for 2023 season
If you don’t know what Peacock is, you have eight months to figure it out, because the streaming system owned by NBC was just awarded an exclusive playoff game. The NFL announced on Monday that Peacock will be getting a wild-card game, marking the first time in league history that a playoff game will only be shown on a streaming platform.
Here’s what you need to know:
- NBC will own Wild Card Saturday this year. For the upcoming season, the wild-card round will be kicking off with a doubleheader on Saturday, Jan. 13. The first game will air at 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC. The second game, which will kick off at either 8:15 p.m. ET or 8:20 p.m. ET. will stream exclusively on Peacock.
- NBC will air a total of three wild-card games. Not will only NBC be getting the two games on Saturday, but the network will also be getting the Sunday night wild-card game on Jan. 14, marking the first time that a network will have aired three wild-card games in a single season. There will also be two other games on Jan. 14 with one being aired on CBS and the other one being shown on Fox. The wild-card round will then close out on Monday night (Jan. 15) with a game on ESPN.
- NBC paid a lot to make this happen. According to the Wall Street Journal, NBC is paying $110 million for the right to exclusively air a playoff game on Peacock. Throughout NFL history, there’s only been one playoff game ever that wasn’t available to fans on free over-the-air television — a January 2015 playoff game that aired exclusively on ESPN — but that will be changing with the Peacock game.
- It’s going to cost you money to watch. If you want to watch the Peacock playoff game, you’re going to have to fork over money. An NBC spokesperson told Front Office Sports that viewers will have to subscribe to Peacock Premium to watch the playoff game. The premium version of Peacock costs $4.99 per month or $49.99 per year. One exception here is that the game will be shown on free television in the markets of the two teams that are playing.
- Peacock will be getting two games this year. Besides the wild-card playoff game, a Week 16 game between the Chargers and Bills will also be exclusively shown on Peacock. The streaming platform will be airing one regular-season game exclusively between 2023 and 2028. That was negotiated into the NFL’s latest media deal, which is going into effect this season.
I gave up on Peacock after they canceled the new “Saved by the Bell” after just two seasons, but this might be enough to get me to sign back up. It will be interesting to see how many people actually watch on Peacock. If it’s a smaller number, the NFL might shy away from allowing any future playoff games to exclusively be streamed, but if it’s a bigger number, that could be mean more streaming games will soon be coming our way.
5. Predicting the Steelers’ final record for 2023
With Memorial Day right around the corner, that means the dead part of the NFL offseason is almost upon us, and although things can get kind of boring during that period, we’re going to keep things spicy around here by going through each team’s schedule and predicting their final record for 2023.
Today, we’re starting with the Pittsburgh Steelers. CBSSports.com’s Bryan DeArdo went through Pittsburgh’s entire schedule and picked out all the games they’re going to win and all the games they’re going to lose.
Here’s a look at his predictions from three key games:
- Week 1: 49ers at Steelers. “Look for the Steelers to try to put constant pressure on whoever is playing quarterback for the 49ers. Pittsburgh will win this game if they can pressure the 49ers’ QB while also containing the big three of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.” Prediction: Steelers 16-13 over 49ers.
- Week 8: Jaguars at Steelers. “This should be a fun matchup between two teams that won nine games last year. The Steelers will have their hands full against Trevor Lawrence, but Jacksonville’s defense is no picnic, either, led by linebacker Josh Allen. “ Prediction: Jaguars 20-16 over Steelers.
- Week 14: Patriots at Steelers. “On paper, the Steelers have the superior team. But given the Steelers’ 4-13 record against Bill Belichick-led Patriots teams, no one in Pittsburgh is crossing this game off as a win. That being said, the Steelers should be able to take care of business this time around.” Prediction: Steelers 20-17 over Patriots.
Overall, DeArdo is predicting that the Steelers will end the season with an 11-6 record, which would almost certainly put them back in the playoffs for the third time in four years. The Steelers over/under is set at 8.5 wins, so if you trust DeArdo, then you should smash the OVER now. Personally, I think the Steelers will win nine or 10 games, so I don’t think this prediction is too crazy.
If you want to see Bryan’s prediction for each game, be sure to click here to check out his entire story.
If you’re looking for more scheduling content, we also ranked the top-five must-see games on the Cowboys’ schedule, which you can check out by clicking here. If you want to know what the five must-see games are for the Patriots, you can find out here.
6. Extra points: Jets Pro Bowler seems unhappy
It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Quinnen Williams sends message to Jets. The Jets All-Pro defensive tackle seems unhappy with his contract. Williams, who’s going into the final year of his rookie deal, sent a message to the Jets by deleting all mentions from them on social media and UNFOLLOWING them on Instagram. You can read all the details here. The Jets have plenty of time to get something done with Williams, but if he doesn’t have a new contract by August, things could get contentious between the two sides.
- Marcus Peters visits Raiders. The former Ravens corner is one of the top players still available in free agency and it appears he might be eyeing the Raiders. The 30-year-old visited with the Raiders on Monday and if he does sign there, it’s a move that would make a lot of sense because the Raiders could definitely use some help in the secondary.
- Jets interested in permanently hosting NFL’s Black Friday game. As it turns out, the Bengals aren’t the only team interested in permanently hosting the Black Friday game. The NFL’s scheduling guru, Mike North, told ESPN this week that the Jets are also interested. However, the NFL hasn’t decided whether the game will be getting a permanent host or if it will be two random teams every year.
- Ndamukong Suh unlikely to sign with anyone until training camp. After playing on three Super Bowl teams in five years — Rams in 2018, Buccaneers in 2020 and Eagles in 2022 — Suh is going to take his time figuring out his next landing spot. Suh said this week that he doesn’t really want to go through training camp, so he likely won’t sign for another few months. That being said, it will definitely be interesting to see where he signs because he wants to play for a contender and based on his Super Bowl track record, he clearly has a good eye for who the contenders are going to be each season.
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Author: John Breech
May 16, 2023 | 1:41 pm
