The NFL has been a “.500 league” for a long time, at least until the muckety mucks at the league office decided to break everyone’s brains and bump the schedule to a despicably odd number with the addition of a 17th game. That’s a whole different rant but the point remains: most NFL teams are going to navigate towards 9-8 or 8-9.
Every year we have a few elite teams (11+ wins now, it used to be 10+) and a few trash teams (six or less now maybe?) in the league. The rest of the league hovers around that .500 range and will move up or move down depending on what kind of lucky breaks they get throughout the season.
An inflated piece of oblong pig butt tends to bounce in a pretty funky manner — the difference between a 10-7 team and a 7-10 team looks massive at the end of the season, but in reality those records are usually separated by something as minuscule as a few fumble recoveries.
Later this week I’ll be dropping my full divisional and playoff projections for the 2023 NFL season (yes it’s May, yes it’s early, no I don’t care and frankly if you’re reading this you shouldn’t be mad about it either). You can always find it on my CBS Sports page and no doubt I’ll post it on both Twitter (@WillBrinson) and Instagram (@WillBrinson) if you want to follow me at either spot. The latter two are also particularly helpful if you hate what I think your team will do and feel like yelling at me. All odds below are from Caesars Sportsbook.
Caesars Win Total: 5.5 (under -170)
Brinson Projected Record: 3-14
Arizona could very well end up keeping Kyler Murray on ice longer, which would benefit both the player and the team for the long haul. I had runs with them at five and four wins and it felt super, super generous. Arizona should be like 50 percent to land the No. 1 overall pick with this roster and them holding Houston’s 2024 first-round selection.
Caesars Win Total: 8.0 (over -125)
Brinson Projected Record: 10-7
Color me bullish on the Falcons this season, even with the QB depth chart consisting of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heineicke. This roster has a real Titans-esque feel to it if the defensive veterans improve things on that side and Bijan Robinson can be a true workhorse. The Falcons actually fell to 3-4 at one point when I went through their schedule before ripping off a slew of wins. If they come out hot, this schedule sets up really well.
Caesars Win Total: 9.5 (over -140)
Brinson Projected Record: 12-5
The Ravens’ win total shot up significantly since Lamar Jackson inked his deal, jumping a full game and plenty of juice as well. Baltimore has three divisional road games in its first five games of the year. If the Ravens manage to go 2-1 in those games, they’d be a borderline lock to get double-digit wins. Todd Monken will make this offense fun again.
Caesars Win Total: 10.5 (over -125)
Brinson Projected Record: 12-5
Beat the Jets in Week 1 and the Bills have a real chance to rip off some wins. People are really down on Buffalo this year because they can’t break through the 90s Pistons/Bulls redux with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. This is still a very good football team.
Caesars Win Total: 7.5 (over -125)
Brinson Projected Record: 8-9
Carolina can win 10 games this year but will need to steal one, maybe two, of their four road games in the first six weeks before their bye. A triplet road trip later in the year really has these trips away from Charlotte bundled closely, which limited my ceiling for them here.
Caesars Win Total: 7.5 (over -120)
Brinson Projected Record: 6-11
I actually like the Bears a bit this year, largely because the improvements around Justin Fields moves up the range of outcomes for Chicago on a week-to-week basis. The Bears getting in the mix for this division wouldn’t be surprising at all.
Caesars Win Total: 11.5 (under -125)
Brinson Projected Record: 13-4
Joe Burrow had a rookie season played amid COVID, then a recovery from a torn ACL and a burst appendix to kickstart each of his first three seasons. If he comes into the year 100 percent, the Bengals are set up by the schedule to rip off a bunch of early wins and not slow down.
Caesars Win Total: 8.5 (over -175)
Brinson Projected Record: 7-10
Three early-season home matchups against division/conference foes might really set the table for Cleveland. I have them struggling out of the gate with a lot of pressure on the coach and QB plus a tough division making it hard for Cleveland to meet pretty lofty Vegas expectations. A Week 5 bye is nobody’s friend.
Caesars Win Total: 9.5 (over -150)
Brinson Projected Record: 10-7
Dallas could have easily won 11 or 12 games in my projection. I still have hesitations about the offense with Mike McCarthy focusing on running the football. If everything clicks they can be dominant but dialing back the offense doesn’t feel like the move with their personnel.
Caesars Win Total: 8.5 (-110)
Brinson Projected Record: 9-8
Six weeks with Sean Payton and Russell Wilson working together could tell us a lot: trips to Miami and Kansas City, plus the Jets and Raiders visiting Mile High Stadium might let us know if Denver’s going to be in the AFC mix. Just remember: it can’t be as bad as 2022.
Caesars Win Total: 9.5 (over -130)
Brinson Projected Record: 10-7
I was initially bearish on the Lions when I saw their win total and heightened expectations, but if they can shock the world to kick off the season against the Chiefs or — and this might be more important — simply recover emotionally for Seahawks/Falcons home matchups immediately afterward, a hot start for Dan Campbell’s club could be on the table.
Caesars Win Total: 7.5 (under -130)
Brinson Projected Record: 6-11
Total wildcard here. If Jordan Love is awesome, I’m an idiot. Back-to-back road games to start before the Saints and Lions come to town is tough. Their Week 6 bye could be a bit panic filled. Or a party, which might be more likely if all we need is me to be an idiot.
Caesars Win Total: 5.5 (over -135)
Brinson Projected Record: 7-10
I may not love C.J. Stroud as a long-term prospect, but since I love the 2023 Texans and think he has a nice floor for this particular roster, I’ll happily change my mind! The Texans can easily hold serve at home before their Week 7 bye which would really set them up well to surprise this season.
Caesars Win Total: 6.5 (-110)
Brinson Projected Record: 4-13
Anthony Richardson is another massive wild card in predicting the 2023 NFL season, especially when you’re doing it in May. If Richardson is ready to roll out of the gate, the Colts could win three or four of their early games instead of the one win I gave them.
Caesars Win Total: 10.0 (-110)
Brinson Projected Record: 11-6
I’ve got the Jaguars doing some super weird stuff, like losing to the Colts on the road and beating the Chiefs at home. IF the Jaguars are ready to take a leap there are some legitimate chances to showcase themselves as an AFC contender. There are also two weeks in London and a host of really difficult games here.
Kansas City Chiefs
Caesars Win Total: 11.5 (over -115)
Brinson Projected Record: 14-3
There are plenty of difficult games on the Chiefs’ schedule, but unfortunately the Chiefs are the most difficult game on everyone else’s schedule.
Las Vegas Raiders
Caesars Win Total: 7.5 (under -120)
Brinson Projected Record: 7-10
The Raiders might be “decent” and still just might be banged schedule-wise: the Broncos, Chiefs and Chargers six times is tough and they have a back-to-back home matchup against the Giants and Jets. Would’ve looked great two years ago!
Caesars Win Total: 7.5 (under -130)
Brinson Projected Record: 9-8
Probably the biggest differential between the Vegas line and my projection. Some will claim it’s my noted affinity for Matthew Stafford but it has much more to do with a weakened NFC, trusting Sean McVay and believing injuries won’t stifle this team like they did in 2022. L.A. (146.5) was right behind Denver (148.5) for most Adjusted Games Lost last year, which could signal some improvement. Go 2-2 out of the gate or better and the Rams might be going full Undertaker GIF.
Los Angeles Chargers
Caesars Win Total: 9.5 (over -125)
Brinson Projected Record: 8-9
Someone from the AFC (and more specifically the AFC West) is going to get hit with a little disappointment in 2023. I actually had them out to 8-5 and then staring down a really rough finish, so this could easily flip if Justin Herbert takes some step and they handle a difficult December stretch.
Caesars Win Total: 9.5 (under -130)
Brinson Projected Record: 8-9
Again: the AFC is really stacked! And the Dolphins draw the entire AFC West and NFC East. I’ve got questions about Tua Tagovailoa, just in terms of how quickly he might be shut down for the season (and rightfully so) with any kind of concussion situation.
Caesars Win Total: 8.5 (over -140)
Brinson Projected Record: 8-9
The Vikings may be the greatest “all the metrics are screaming but it’s a little hard to see on the depth chart” team of all time. The Vikings look very, very solid, especially on offense, but there are plenty of tough matchups on this schedule.
Caesars Win Total: 7.5 (over -115)
Brinson Projected Record: 9-8
Probably too deferential to Bill Belichick here, especially with a brutal early schedule — if the Pats were 0-4 to start the year it wouldn’t be shocking.
New Orleans Saints
Caesars Win Total: 9.5 (under -130)
Brinson Projected Record: 7-10
The 2022 Saints went 7-10 too and Derek Carr is an upgrade here so maybe this is too low. But the Falcons and Panthers are a little more interesting to me — how the Saints start on the road might determine their season.
New York Giants
Caesars Win Total: 8.5 (under -160)
Brinson Projected Record: 9-8
People expect Daniel Jones to take a step back in his second year with Brian Daboll … but why? If the excuse is contract motivation, I’m not out on it, but a second year in a proven QB environment with smart coaching won’t cause a Danny Dimes regression.
New York Jets
Caesars Win Total: 9.5 (over -140)
Brinson Projected Record: 10-7
The Jets could blow this out of the water a la the 2020 Bucs and 2021 Rams (and not a la the 2022 Broncos) if Aaron Rodgers‘ transition to the Big Apple is seamless. The schedule is brutal out of the gate — if the Jets are above .500 after six weeks they’re going to be a big problem.
Caesars Win Total: 10.5 (over -185)
Brinson Projected Record: 10-7
The Eagles went from the league’s easiest schedule coming into 2022 straight into the league’s most difficult schedule heading into 2023.
Caesars Win Total: 8.5 (over -140)
Brinson Projected Record: 9-8
The Steelers are super quiet this offseason. Almost … too quiet. If Kenny Pickett flips a switch next year (he did the same thing at the previous level) the Steelers could be kind of dangerous this season.
Caesars Win Total: 11.5 (under -140)
Brinson Projected Record: 12-5
Everything depends on Trey Lance’s skillset and/or Brock Purdy’s baseball injury. Wild to think about Lance and SF expectations this time last year versus now.
Caesars Win Total: 8.5 (over -135)
Brinson Projected Record: 9-8
Definitely expected the Seahawks to be a little higher in terms of projected wins. But maybe they’re the quintessential grinder team. 3-1 is definitely doable ahead of an early Week 5 bye if Geno Smith runs it back one more year.
Caesars Win Total: 6.5 (under -140)
Brinson Projected Record: 5-12
It’s just tough to love the Buccaneers, knowing the offensive line took a massive hit, they replaced Tom Brady with Baker Mayfield and all three other teams in the division got better. So….
Caesars Win Total: 7.5 (under -135)
Brinson Projected Record: 6-11
Another massive wild card (the AFC South is full of them!): Tennessee will probably (?) have Derrick Henry on its roster and will maybe (?) be starting Ryan Tannehill ahead of Week 1. The Titans have a tough schedule and big questions. I’m admittedly scared to doubt Mike Vrabel.
Caesars Win Total: 6.5 (over -120)
Brinson Projected Record: 6-11
Beating a very sad commodore here but there are some wild-card teams this year. What if Sam Howell is good??? I’ve been propping him up and will keep doing so and it’s still hard to see a great path moving forward for Washington with how poorly the schedule flips for them.
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Author: Will Brinson
May 16, 2023 | 3:14 pm
