Bijan Robinson Draft Profile: NFL projection, Full scouting report, Fantasy Football & Dynasty outlook, more

Bijan Robinson is going to be the first running back selected in the 2023 NFL Draft, and his 2023 combine performance all but guaranteed that. Robinson has all of the traits and production that translate to the NFL level. On top of that, he performed progressively better in each of his three seasons at Texas with his 2022 season so dominant that he received a 95.3 overall grade from PFF. 

What stands out the most to me about Robinson’s 2022 season — and this was the case in all three of his seasons at Texas — was how hard he was to take down in the open field. Robinson set a record for the most forced missed tackles in a single season per PFF’s game charting — he topped the triple-digit mark with 102 forced missed tackles. Elusiveness is often an excellent predictor of future success for a running back at the next level because it’s the type of skill that can translate to any scheme and situation for the most part.

Since the rest of this profile will be dedicated to Robinson’s strengths and weaknesses on tape, his Fantasy outlook, Dynasty outlook and some fun stats, let’s take a little bit of time to talk about his accomplishments first. They are certainly worth noting. He won the Doak Walker Award in 2022 as the best running back in the nation. His other 2022 honors included First-Team All Big 12, a unanimous All-American honor and a top-10 finish in the Heisman Trophy voting. 

And since I always like to mention “breakout age” when projecting prospects from college to the NFL, Robinson also fits into that bucket — he was incredible as a freshman — culminating in his game-changing performance in the Alamo Bowl (he won MVP). Robinson is the type of rare prospect at the running back position who doesn’t come through every class and he’s going to make an early impact in your Fantasy Football leagues no matter where he ends up being drafted.

Age as of Week 1: 21 | Height: 6-foot-0 | Weight: 220 | 40-time: 4.46

Comparable body-type to: Saquon Barkley

We’re breaking down everything you need to know about Walker from a Fantasy manager perspective, including best fits, Dynasty outlook, measurables, scouting report, key stats and an NFL comparison.

Best Fantasy fits

Dolphins

Miami is everyone’s favorite landing spot for running backs this offseason for a multitude of reasons. For starters, there are potentially a ton of touches and overall snaps vacated in that backfield with both Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert scheduled to hit free agency. Opportunity isn’t the only thing working for any back who lands in Miami. He’d also be joining an offense that flashed elite-level upside at times in 2022 when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy, and that would mean red zone scoring opportunities for Robinson if Miami drafts him. We saw that play out with Wilson once the Dolphins traded for him. Lastly, from a schematic standpoint, the Dolphins run a style of offense with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the field that forces defenses to play their cornerbacks and safeties further off the line of scrimmage than they do against most teams. This will help confirm lighter boxes for Robinson to run against.

Lions

Detroit is one of my low-key favorite landing spots for a running back this offseason. I discussed this with Chris Towers on FFT in 5 last week — I’m not so sure the Lions are committed to D’Andre Swift moving forward. Earlier this offseason, Lions head coach Dan Campbell all but confirmed they’ll have another limited touches plan in place for Swift if he can prove to finally stay healthy early on. Jamal Williams is a player they want to re-sign, but the running back is not under contract for 2023 at the time of this publication. There is an opportunity here for Robinson to join a backfield with vacated touches behind one of the NFL’s elite offensive lines that is only getting better. At one point in 2022, the Lions’ backs averaged more yards *before contact than some teams averaged overall! Lastly, I trust offensive coordinator Ben Johnson — the best young offensive mind in the NFL — to consistently create an effective offense that finds its way into the red zone often.

Bears

I’m not sure which direction Chicago plans to go with David Montgomery, but if they let him go, Robinson could find himself in a great situation with the Bears. Having Justin Fields at quarterback — as arguably the biggest threat to run the football at the position outside of Lamar Jackson — will open up run lanes immediately for Robinson. If they run zone read, the end man on the line of scrimmage has no option but to hesitate and respect Fields’ ability to keep the ball. Robinson is a savvy runner who will take advantage of that. Chicago might actually be the quickest path to success for Robinson.

Dynasty outlook

Robinson has long been prognosticated as the first overall pick in Dynasty formats, and that speaks volumes as to how sure the community is about him as a prospect. I share in their certainty and wouldn’t consider any other non-quarterback no matter where Robinson is eventually drafted. Having said that, in two-QB and SuperFlex leagues, Robinson could slide a few picks down the draft board. It remains highly unlikely that any non-quarterback surpasses Robinson in rookie drafts.

Scouting report

Strengths

• Production was a constant. Robinson averaged a ridiculous 6.3 yards per carry throughout his college career.
• Robinson’s defining trait for me is his ability to stop and start his momentum. If you have him dead to rights inside the tackle box, he will consistently burn you with his ability to create space inside that small box. This trait is the defining reason why he racked up historic forced missed tackle numbers,  and I haven’t watched a running back prospect with Robinson’s ability to do this since Saquon Barkley.
• Robinson has already demonstrated the natural ability to catch the football out of the backfield but he also has had success when lining up on the outside as a receiver. This makes him a high-upside projection for both NFL teams and your Fantasy Football teams as we know a target is worth roughly three times as much as a carry in Fantasy Football (PPR).
• Robinson broke out at an early age and consistently improved throughout his three college years.
• Contact balance is absolutely elite. Like his stop-and-start ability, his contact balance is as good as we’ve seen from any back in the last decade.
• Robinson runs with good pad level and tends to win the leverage battle (through contact) more often than not.
• Lateral agility is elite and Robinson moves like a running back prospect who is sub-200 pounds despite being a 220-pound running back. He can change directions and lose little to no momentum.
• Springy runner both when he first touches the football and then once he’s out in space.
• Robinson can fit in any blocking scheme at the NFL level. If you put him in a zone scheme, he has demonstrated the ability to be a one-cut and get vertical runner. But if you run more power/gap concepts in your run game, Robinson has the combination of speed and strength that could make him an even more dominant producer in that scheme.
• Robinson is already a nuanced mental processor at the position and you can see it from his vision cuts and ability to tempo his runs, anticipate his blocks and also anticipate where the cut-back lanes will be.

Concerns

• Much like Barkley (who we keep coming back to as a comp), in just about any game you watch Robinson, you’ll see some plays where he believes in his athleticism too much and leaves some yardage on the field while trying to create a chunk play.
• Robinson hasn’t racked up the kind of production from a volume standpoint that you might want — topping 200 carries in a season just once and with 86 as his total in one of the three seasons at Texas. Some might view this as more of a positive considering he’ll enter the NFL with less wear and tear.
• Robinson has dealt with several injuries throughout his college career — neck, shoulder, elbow — nothing serious though.

Stats breakdown

Advanced stats to know

• 104 forced missed tackles in 2022 — breaking the all-time PFF record for most forced missed tackles in a season.
• 39% forced missed tackle rate (per touch) — best since PFF began charting in 2014. 
• 22 carries of 15-plus yards in 2022 — ninth-most in the nation.
• 1,071 yards after contact in 2022 — fourth-most in the nation

NFL comparison

Robinson has the same physical build as Barkley, but I believe he’s a different (and better) runner. Robinson reminds me of a faster and quicker version of Marshawn Lynch with a bit less physicality than Beast Mode.