NFL season win totals are some of the most fun action to wager on — it’s a season-long gambit with week-to-week intensity because of how much every game matters for the final season record. For years now I’ve written up the win totals for CBS, so it’s wild to me we now get them in mid-to-late March; we’ve always had to grind our way through May to get them released.
Caesars Sportsbook dropped win totals for every single NFL team recently, so let’s break them down division by division. Check the rest of the divisions here:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Before we dive into the AFC West, a couple quick notes. One, we’re picking every team but not betting every team. Two, any best bets will be denoted in bold, etc. Three, if you like an Over that’s reasonably high, don’t bet it now, because injuries are random. Four, I’m picking these as of March 30, so I’ll lean more Unders based on injuries.
Let’s get to it.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs
Over 11.5 (-115) / Under 11.5 (-105)
The price to bet on Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes being good is just still too cheap. Andy has missed the Over on his win total in Kansas City once since 2013 and he pushed 12 wins that season. Mahomes can clearly thrive sans Tyreek Hill — if being the first MVP/Super Bowl champ/Super Bowl MVP since Kurt Warner in 1999 wasn’t enough, please consult your physician for some corrective lenses and a lobotomy. Losing Orlando Brown stings, but the price K.C. paid for Jawaan Taylor makes me think they see something truly elite in what he can bring to this offense. Reid and GM Brett Veach keep hitting on draft picks, and I wouldn’t rule them out for a big wide receiver move just quite yet.
Pick: BEST BET CHIEFS OVER 11.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Chargers
Over 9.5 (-115) / Under 9.5 (-105)
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 17 times, shame on me, I guess. The Chargers have two seasons with double-digit wins since I started picking them to win the Super Bowl a half score and two years ago when I started at CBS. But one of them was last year and there’s a big upgrade at offensive coordinator (we think) with Kellen Moore over Joe Lombardi. If Justin Herbert’s vertical skillset is unleashed, the Chargers can light up the scoreboard. In theory everyone should be healthier this year but that’s also a long-standing issue with this franchise. Taking an April Over for a cursed franchise that’s considering a trade of it’s premiere running back (dealing Austin Ekeler is bat-smell crazy, get a grip Tom Telesco, pay the dude and let him smash as an elite modern running back), but I’d lean that way right now.
Pick: Chargers OVER 9.5 (-115)
Denver Broncos
Over 8.5 (-115) / Under 8.5 (-105)
My biggest reason for picking the Broncos to go over this number in 2023? Sean Payton. This is a Mike Singletary/Jim Harbaugh-level coaching upgrade in Denver. You can see the hallmarks of a Payton team already — upgrade the offensive line regardless of cost, send coded messages to your receivers through the media, fire up a relationship with an undersized quarterback … it’s quite bizarre how people are sleeping on the Broncos NOW. Everyone loved them last year with Nate Hackett but Sean Payton comes to town and “meh”??? Payton is one of the five best NFL offensive minds of the last 25 years. He’s in a win-win with Russell Wilson — if Russ can’t get back to being upper echelon, Payton can write him off as washed up and no one will flinch. But this Broncos offense resembles one of those Brees/Saints teams — if the defense can keep pace, this is very much a potential playoff team. Let’s ride?
Pick: Broncos OVER 8.5 (-115)
Las Vegas Raiders
Over 7.5 (+120) / Under 7.5 (-140)
The Raiders felt like a “one step forward, one step back” type of team this offseason. No matter what they did, they ended up kind of in the same place as they started. It very much feels like Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler listened to the noise and decided to flip the roster in a Patriots West kind of way. I think Jimmy Garoppolo is better in a Josh McD system than Derek Carr. Josh Jacobs, friend of the Pick Six Podcast and a delightful human being, should be PAID; I’m sure he’ll run hard as hell this year, but maybe don’t decline to pick up his fifth-year option, play him late in the HOF Game and then franchise tag him. Unless your goal is to make him mad. Darren Waller … no longer on the team! There’s a lot of pathways to this team struggling. Anything less than 3-3 in the division and 4-4 in the division crossovers (NFC North, AFC East) forces them to win two games against the Colts, Steelers and Giants to cover this eight-game total. I like their improvements, but this is an Under look now.
Pick: Raiders UNDER 7.5 (-140)
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Author: Will Brinson
April 6, 2023 | 8:48 am
