NFL season win totals are some of the most fun action to wager on — it’s a season-long gambit with week-to-week intensity because of how much every game matters for the final season record. For years now I’ve written up the win totals for CBS, so it’s wild to me we now get them in mid-to-late March; we’ve always had to grind our way through May to get them released.
Caesars Sportsbook dropped win totals for every single NFL team recently, so let’s break them down division by division. Check the rest of the divisions here:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Before we dive into the AFC South, a couple quick notes. One, we’re picking every team but not betting every team. Two, any best bets will be denoted in bold, etc. Three, if you like an Over that’s reasonably high, don’t bet it now, because injuries are random. Four, I’m picking these as of March 30, so I’ll lean more Unders based on injuries.
Let’s get to it.
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over 9.5 (-140) / Under 9.5 (+120)
Look, no one hyped the Jaguars last year like me. I picked them — not bet them, PICKED THEM — to win the division preseason. My family hails from DUVAL. Big fan of Doug P and banged the “anyone who thinks Trevor Lawrence is the QB Urban Meyer drafted is an idiot” drum as loud as possible. Having said all that … a super juiced 10-win season for Jacksonville is outrageous. The AFC South draws the AFC North and NFC South this year, so the numbers may be juiced up a little bit. But the Jags have won more than nine games once in the last 15 years (2017 obviously). This is a HEFTY price even if you believe (and I believe!). A first-place schedule is still up on the docket, meaning Chiefs, Bills, Niners outside of the crossovers and division games. Ten wins is hard in the NFL. I’ll take the Under at this point in the proceedings.
Pick: Jaguars UNDER 9.5 (+120)
Tennessee Titans
Over 7.5 (+115) / Under 7.5 (-135)
In the offseason, I love to squint at depth charts and imagine the possibilities — what’s the best-case scenario for an offense or defense. The Titans offense is a tough one to see, even with 20/20 vision. Maybe it changes if they get a WR early; they’re rumored to be in the QB market too, via trading up from 11th, which wouldn’t help in 2023. Honestly the only hangup here is Mike Vrabel. He’s just an elite coach (41 wins in his first four seasons is strong to say the least) but it’s fair to wonder how the power structure situation in Tennessee will play out. The offensive line is a work in progress right now — if Vrabel gets it figured out and adds another weapon, this offense can be a problem. In another division, this number wouldn’t be so high. I don’t think the AFC South materially changes in the next few months, so I’m probably leaning Over at plus money, but would hold off on betting it.
Pick: Titans OVER 7.5 (+115)
Indianapolis Colts
Over 6.5 (-150) / Under 6.5 (+125)
Prevailing logic says the Colts will take a quarterback at No. 4 (or trade up to No. 3 and get one). I’d love to argue against it, but Jim Irsay isn’t a rational actor — I already acted the fool assuming the Panthers and David Tepper would be sensible, I have no need to look stupid for assuming rationality a second time. I do think there’s a non-zero chance the Colts might completely tank this season. Irsay’s done it before with the Peyton Manning/Andrew Luck transition, and this roster, with a new coach and no QB options would be ripe to get a Caleb Williams or Drake Maye next year. Even at fourth overall, it’s Anthony Richardson or Will Levis, both of whom present tremendous upside but minimal potential floor their first season. That plus money looks pretty nice right now.
Pick: Colts UNDER 6.5 (+125)
Houston Texans
Over 5.5 (-110) / Under 5.5 (-110)
I’ll take “bandwagons I can’t regret to be on come November for $2000, Alex” ,., “who are the Texans!” I actually don’t mind being early here with the possibility of a young QB slotting in behind a strong offensive line, with a good running game behind him and a massive upgrade with the coaching staff. DeMeco Ryans could be a stud and brought some quality assistants with him (Bobby Slowik is the latest ShanaClan Tree Member). The Texans promptly signed a bunch of veterans on defense. Despite trading Brandin Cooks (you left your free sub/NFL trade punchcard in the lobby, Mister Cooks, just FYI), Houston did a good job improving the overall quality of the pass-catching corps. I actually think they could creep on this division title in 2023 if everything breaks right…
Pick: BEST BET: Texans OVER 5.5 (-110)
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Author: Will Brinson
April 5, 2023 | 8:37 am
