2023 NFL Draft: Regrading every first-round QB pick over the last 15 years, from Trevor Lawrence to Joe Flacco

The 2023 NFL Draft is upon us, and no position is poised to get more attention than quarterback. Everyone wants an elite one, and most struggle to secure one. No doubt that several will try to unearth the next superstar come April 27.

This year, no fewer than four signal-callers are widely expected to come off the board on the first night of the draft. Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Alabama’s Bryce Young, Florida’s Anthony Richardson and Kentucky’s Will Levis have all been projected as first-rounders, with Stroud and Young reportedly in contention to go No. 1 overall.

What can history tell us about how many of these inevitable Day One QB investments will actually pan out? We’re glad you asked. We’ve reviewed every single first-round QB selection over the last 15 years and assigned “grades” for each:

1. Home run: A bona fide star with championship-caliber talent, production and/or potential
2. Mixed result: A solid, maybe even great, QB who had an impact but for whatever reason did not last
3. Incomplete: A QB who’s yet to fully prove himself, but could be trending up or down
4. Miss: A clear flip as a short- and/or long-term starter

Some of the QBs straddle the lines more than others, and we’d be remiss if we didn’t partially excuse some of the misses for the situations in which they struggled (you can’t control where you’re drafted, after all). But let this recap paint a picture of the unpredictability that comes with the hunt for a star QB:

2022

Pickett had the misfortune of operating on a sluggish offense with shoddy protection as a 12-game rookie starter, but he showed more than enough toughness and pocket poise, especially down the stretch. Pittsburgh asked to be a rugged old-school starter, and if that remains the case, it might be difficult to assess his ceiling.

2021

Is it too early to rule Lawrence a home run? Maybe, but he passed the eye test with flying colors in 2022, his first under a legitimate NFL staff. And few things speak to long-term QB promise more than an unteachably electric arm, which he’s got. Wilson, 23, may redeem himself down the road thanks to his slippery athleticism, but two painfully erratic years in, the Jets are already replacing him with a near-40-year-old Aaron Rodgers. Lance is a total unknown, flashing all the physical tools but managing just eight game appearances in two injury-riddled seasons. Fields arguably deserves “home run” status if Lawrence is gonna get it, showcasing MVP-level electricity with his legs in 2022, but he’s still a raw decision-maker through the air. Jones was a fair mid-range passer as a rookie, but he’s regressed amid poor conditions and requires quite a friendly setup.

2020

Burrow is undeniably one of the top two or three QBs in the game, offsetting any questions of mobility with razor-sharp precision and pocket presence; two AFC title-game appearances in three years is proof. Tagovailoa opened 2022 with much-improved confidence, but like Mac Jones in the AFC East, his pinpoint accuracy fades off-script, and he’s got major medical concerns. Herbert is the total package physically, with ridiculous production (94 TDs, 35 INTs) despite a quiet, albeit young, postseason resume. Love is following Aaron Rodgers’ footsteps, taking over Green Bay’s gig after three years on the bench; if his arm is as energetic as it looked in brief 2022 work, he’ll be a fun watch.

2019

A year or two back, Murray might’ve been a home run, pairing a rocket arm with scurrying legs. His reliability and availability have since dipped; oft-injured, there might not be a more mercurial talent at the position. Jones went from clumsy victim of circumstance to underrated dual threat in 2022, and now the Giants are betting his efficiency and mobility will grow with a better supporting cast. The late Haskins made just 13 starts in two seasons before his demotion and release.

2018

Mayfield is representative of this year’s class: scattershot. He reintroduced the Browns to QB moxie and reinvented himself as a figurehead for a run-first offense, but ultimately left after four battered and turnover-prone seasons. Darnold endured a steeper dip into skittish tendencies for a porous Jets team. Allen, meanwhile, has gone the opposite direction, starting as a wayward gunslinger and evolving into a big-armed, big-bodied MVP type, though his style is inherently riskier than most. Rosen never stood a chance, flopping as a lean, limited pocket passer before Arizona dumped him after a single season. Jackson is one of the NFL’s defining talents; he hasn’t been the most durable, and he’s struggled in brief playoff efforts, but his world-class speed has kept Baltimore afloat, even as the team has failed to surround him with steady pass catchers.

2017

Trubisky never got great help from his staff, but his ill-timed decisions helped accelerate a move to backup jobs elsewhere. Watson once looked like a superstar-in-the-making, and he’s still got the tools to be a top-10 pocket passer, but he was Houston’s starter for just three and a half seasons, sitting out all of 2021 while seeking a trade and facing dozens of lawsuits for alleged off-field misconduct. Mahomes is already one of the greatest draft picks of all time, racking up two Super Bowl victories, two NFL MVPs and five straight AFC title-game appearances as the league’s acrobatic standard-setter under center.

2016

Goff experienced basically three careers in one with the Rams, opening haplessly amid a rebuild, then showcasing All-Pro precision for Sean McVay’s first Super Bowl bid before a regression under pressure. Wentz is a tragic case of what could have been; his 2017 MVP candidacy was truly dynamic and helped pave the way for Nick Foles’ ultimate Super Bowl triumph, but post-injuries, he never fully reined in his aggressiveness. Lynch made just four starts in Denver before his exit.

2015

Winston‘s gung-ho approach doomed him more than it served him; he threw 88 picks in 70 starts before the Buccaneers turned to Tom Brady and instantly won a Super Bowl. Mariota also made it five years with his original club, but he too was happily ushered out by the end, struggling to stay in the lineup while leaning on his legs. Both have since settled in as veteran No. 2s.

2014

Bortles flirted with legitimacy, throwing 35 TDs in his second season and helping the Jaguars to an AFC title game in 2017, but his aggressiveness led to 75 picks in 73 starts. Manziel flamed out on and off the field after a raucous college career, making just eight frenetic starts over two seasons before his unceremonious exit. Bridgewater is easily the most accomplished of the trio to date, carving out a long run as a journeyman placeholder, but he managed just two safe but wholly unspectacular seasons leaning on Adrian Peterson before a knee injury derailed his future in Minnesota.

2013

Widely considered the only promising QB of a thin class, Manuel battled injuries and inaccuracy, quickly losing starting duties to both Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor. He went 6-11 making just 17 starts over four seasons before relocating as a backup.

2012

You might argue Luck is closer to a “mixed result” considering lingering shoulder injuries and his abrupt retirement at age 29 robbed the Colts of a potential Hall of Fame career, but when he was active and healthy, Peyton Manning’s successor was one of the best field generals in the game. He led four playoff trips and an AFC title-game appearance with gaudy aerial production. Griffin was a rookie phenom thanks to his smooth scrambling but fizzled quickly after knee injuries, giving way to the more reliable Kirk Cousins. Tannehill revived his career with the Titans, but only after an injury-riddled seven-year slog in Miami. Weeden, who entered at age 28, threw 26 picks in 20 starts over just two seasons with Cleveland.

2011

Newton could possibly fit into “mixed result,” seeing that he was a battered, below-average passer for the latter half of his initial nine-year run with the Panthers. His first five years, however, were game-changing for Carolina, peaking with a 2015 MVP run and Super Bowl bid as a supersized dual threat. Injuries were even harsher to Locker, who never played more than 11 games in a season, and retired after just four years. Gabbert got little protection in Jacksonville and saw his playing time decline in three straight seasons — his only three with the Jags. Ponder had 36 picks in 36 starts for Minnesota.

2010

Bradford is one of the toughest to separate from his circumstances; injuries behind an awful Rams front wrecked his knees and shortened his St. Louis tenure to three-and-a-half active seasons, but when upright, he was an ascending pocket passer who kept a bad team in the mix. Tebow had real flashes of something special, briefly captivating the league with bulldozing legs and inexplicable late-game heroics, but he never got in rhythm throwing the ball in just two seasons with the Broncos.

2009

Stafford could never fully transcend Detroit’s shortcomings, requiring a late-career relocation to the all-star Rams to win a title, but he gave the Lions 12 years of mostly above-average gunslinging, eight times eclipsing 4,000 yards. Sanchez got major help from a vaunted Jets defense during his two playoff runs; he was sloppy but occasionally clutch in four years as QB1. Freeman teased top-10 potential as a second-year winner, only to throw 66 picks in 59 starts for the rebuilding Bucs.

2008

Ryan was on the losing end of the biggest Super Bowl comeback in NFL history, but he was long one of the primary reasons Atlanta could even dream of a title, giving the Falcons a steady, if unspectacular, hand for 14 seasons. Flacco gets more ridicule for being even more of a throwback pocket passer, ultimately settling into an ultra-conservative approach, but his big arm was instrumental in the Ravens’ 2012 Super Bowl run and he still captained six different playoff runs over 11 seasons in Baltimore.

Final tally

Over the last 15 years, there have been 45 QBs selected in the first round. Here’s the final tally:

If you combine home runs and mixed results, that’s 17 of 45 (38%) who at least left some noticeable level of positive impact. That’s not necessarily an awful hit rate, considering the volatility of picks at every position. But it’s not great! And it’s obviously including a wide range of outcomes; Mark Sanchez and Deshaun Watson, for example, are both mixed results because their success was short-lived in their original homes, and yet the latter was far more productive during his days as a Texans starter.

As you may have guessed, the biggest takeaway is that it’s just a lot harder to hit on superstars under center, even in the first round. Over the last 15 years, there are an average of three first-round QB picks per year. So according to our assessment, only 0.7 of those go on to become home-run picks. Meanwhile, at least 1.3 per year prove to be clear misses.

All that said, if you’re preparing to go all in for the next hotshot under center, make sure you’ve done your homework, and/or ensured your future face of the franchise has a foundation that can support him! Otherwise, you’ll probably be angling to take another swing at the position in another few years, starting the cycle again.