Basketball

NBA playoff picture: Warriors closer to home-court advantage in West; Lakers back in play-in … for now

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The Golden State Warriors won thei

by
SaC Bot
March 14, 2023

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The Golden State Warriors won their eighth straight game at home on Monday, defeating the Phoenix Suns to move into the West’s No. 5 seed. The Warriors now trail Phoenix by two games in the loss column with 13 to play, though that margin is effectively three with Phoenix having secured the tiebreaker.

Also on Monday in the Western Conference: The Grizzlies jumped Sacramento back into the No. 2 seed, and the Lakers are back in the play-in … for now.

Below is a comprehensive snapshot of where things stand in the Western Conference playoff and play-in races entering play on Tuesday. This post will update daily throughout the remainder of the regular season, or until all seeds are clinched.

Reminder on how the play-in tournament works: No. 7 plays No. 8 and No. 9 plays No. 10. The winner of the 7-8 game gets the No. 7 seed, while the loser plays the winner of the 9-10 game for the No. 8 seed.

READ: Eastern Conference playoff picture

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

The Nuggets have an effective five-game lead in the loss column over the No. 2 Grizzlies with the tiebreaker secured.

Projected seed: 1
Current first-round matchup: TBD
Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Denver has clinched
Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Season series tied 1-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Denver leads season series 2-0 with two to play

Memphis jumped Sacramento, which lost to Milwaukee on Monday, with its win over Dallas.

Projected seed: 2
Current first-round matchup: vs. Timberwolves-Mavericks play-in winner
Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Nuggets have clinched
Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Kings currently own via conference record
Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Grizzlies own via division leader

3. Sacramento Kings (40-27)

Sacramento falls behind Memphis after falling vs. Milwaukee on Monday. Fortunately, the No. 4 Suns lost as well, so the Kings maintain a cushion with one head-to-head matchup remaining.

Projected seed: 3
Current first-round matchup: vs. Clippers
Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Tied 1-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Kings currently own via conference win percentage
Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play

4. Phoenix Suns (37-31)

The Suns fell to Golden State on Monday and now lead the No. 5 Warriors by just two in the loss column, though that lead is effectively three as Phoenix has sealed the tiebreaker.

Projected seed: 4
Current first-round matchup: vs. Warriors
Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Grizzlies own via division leader
Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Phoenix leads 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Suns have clinched
Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Suns currently own via conference win percentage
Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play

5. Golden State Warriors (36-33)

The Warriors are back at No. 5 in the nightly round of musical chairs that is the Western Conference mid-seed playoff race. They trail the No. 4 Suns by an effective three games in the loss column with 13 left to play.

Projected seed: 6
Current first-round matchup: at Suns
Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns have clinched
Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Tied 1-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Warriors clinched

6. Los Angeles Clippers (36-33)

The Clippers are tied in the loss column with the No. 5 Warriors with one matchup remaining. They trail the No. 4 Suns by just two in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining.

Projected seed: 5
Current first-round matchup: at Suns
Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched
Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks currently own via conference record
Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 1-0 with two to play
Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz clinched
Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Clippers clinched

Play-In Tournament

7. Minnesota Timberwolves (35-34)

Minnesota defeated Atlanta on Monday and is one game up in the loss column on the 8-11 seeds.

Projected seed: 9
Current first-round matchup: vs. Mavericks (Play-in)
Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Wolves clinched
Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Wolves clinched
Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Tied 1-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Wolves currently own via division record
Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Wolves clinched

8. Dallas Mavericks (34-35)

In their quest to climb above the play-in line, Dallas is now two back of the No. 6 Clippers with the tiebreaker currently in their favor, and two back of the No. 5 Warriors with one head-to-head matchup remaining.

Projected seed: 7
Current first-round matchup: at Timberwolves (Play-in)
Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns owns via conference win percentage
Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Tied 1-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched
Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Dallas currently owns via conference record
Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play

9. Los Angeles Lakers (33-35)

The Lakers currently sit in a three-way tie with the No. 10 Pelicans and No. 11 Thunder. In tiebreaker scenarios that include more than two teams, the nod, in order, goes to the team with the best win percentage in all head-to-head matchups among the teams involved.

Projected seed: 8
Current first-round matchup: vs. Pelicans (Play-in)
Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Clippers clinched
Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Lakers lead 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Tied 1-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Blazers currently own via conference win percentage