The Orlando Magic, despite being among the worst teams in the NBA this season, appears to be on the right track with their rebuild. Two seasons ago, they traded All-Star Nikola Vucevic to the Chicago Bulls and finally bottomed out after several seasons of mediocrity. They then drafted rising star Franz Wagner in 2021, followed by Paolo Banchero with the number one overall pick in last year’s draft.
While they weren’t particularly good this season, they did make promising strides and have not one but two lottery picks that they can use to further improve their team. With the sixth-worst record in the NBA, the Magic could have the sixth pick, but they could also move up or down in the draft order.
The same goes for the Bulls’ pick, which they acquired as a result of the Vucevic trade after they finished with the 12th-worst record in the league. However, with the draft lottery coming up on May 16th, the Magic could luck out and have both selections move up. But what are the odds of that? Let’s take a look at the Magic’s full draft odds.
1st pick-9.0%
2nd pick-9.2%
3rd pick-9.4%
4th pick-9.6%
Despite finishing sixth from the bottom of the league’s standings, the Magic have a 37.2% chance of moving up into the top four. Obviously, the hope is for them to land the first overall pick, but a top-four pick is still tantalizing, especially in this draft. After all, aside from Victor Wembanyama, there appears to be an increasingly smaller consensus about who is the second, third, or fourth-best prospect.
6th pick-8.6%
7th pick-29.7%
8th pick-20.6%
9th pick-3.7%
10th pick-0.2%
Although the Magic have a one-in-three probability of landing a top-four pick, they have a 54.2% chance of falling back in the draft. In fact, their most likely draft position is actually 7th or 8th, which would be disappointing because it decreases the chances of them finding a future star. Even if that worst-case scenario happens, they would still have an extra lottery pick. Let’s look at the lottery odds for the Bulls’ pick next.
1st pick-1.7%
2nd pick-1.9%
3rd pick-2.1%
4th pick-2.4%
As for the Bulls’ selection, the odds of it jumping into the top four are just 8.3%. That is obviously better than nothing, but a much more likely scenario is that it remains the 12th pick.
12th pick-85.2
13th pick-6.7
14th pick-0.1
Ultimately, the Magic have better than a one-in-three chance at landing a top-four pick. That would be huge for their up-and-coming franchise, but they may instead drop in the draft lottery order. Fortunately, they also have the Bulls pick, and while that selection is unlikely to move up in the draft order, it would soften the blow if the worst-case scenario occurred.
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Author: Cal Durrett
April 20, 2023 | 5:00 am
